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Tober said:

In the end it's about software sales. In previous generations it was the decline of software sales that pushed Nintendo to release a new generation. Look at the Gameboy. Software kept selling so they decided to keep going with it. The Gameboy Colour only came 9 years into its lifecycle and that was even marketed as just an extension of the Gameboy.

Switch is selling software. If will be around 200 million 2024 fiscal year, probably 150 million current one. As long as software sales keep going, Nintendo will not be in a hurry replacing the Switch. Also I would not be surprised it will do a Gameboy/Gameboy Colour again and just launch the new hardware as Switch family.

How are the software sales this year in comparison to last year? At least regarding hardware sales, the Switch is sitting at -6.4% YoY with all the data we have at the moment.

What do you think will be the highest software seller of 2024?

If Nintendo was to do that, would you assume that the rumor about the Youtube poll is true for its name? The Nintendo Switch Attach

jalidi said:

Currently at 141M with 11 months to go to the successor, assuming they ship it in March of 2025. Switch is selling about 750K a month worldwide right now.

There will be a bit of a boost over the final holiday season, and then a lag as people anticipate the release in 2025. So a minimum of 9M, probably 10M right on the dot. I'm predicting it'll finally have a price cut alongside the Switch 2 and sell for maybe 200 or so, about what the 3DS was. And that one sold 8M after the release of Switch to when it was discontinued. Assuming it does about the same, it's looking to finish at about 158M to 160M. So yes, if all of these hold true, it's going to pass PS2, just barely.

Right now with all data available the Switch has shipped approximately 141.75M, and sold 139.14M

And agreed that this fourth quarter is showing the Switch selling lower than 1M per month like in 2023, and will probably sell near 750k in March worldwide. But I think that Nintendo will set 12M as their FY goal. I say this because the Q4 is always the worst selling quarter, so if we are seeing ~800k monthly average for Q4 that gives some hope that the next 3 quarters will be above 800k, I think they can reach near 900k for the majority of most upcoming months and slightly above 1M for the holiday months.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.