Wow, someone actually who did the math! Would u mind sharing your predictions by quarter and region breakdown through Q1 2025 if possible?

It will take some time but I think eventually Switch will outsell them both. Switch has it over the PS2 in a way by being a console multiple people per household often own. The hybrid console feature also gives it extra value/appeal.

And as far as the DS, its library has even surpassed that console's library at this point. Plus, even when Switch 2 comes out, the original Switch will likely continue to sell for a least a couple more years on account of its (relatively) lower pricepoint and established library. 

Sorry for the delay I figured that the Americas information would arrive on Wed May 1, hence why I waited. I'll probably update it once the Worldwide is released and when the official Nintendo report is out too.

And yes, I would love to.
if I ever say sells, it means that it sold, and Nintendo is replacing it with a shipped unit. 1 unit sold = 1 unit shipped

Q4 2023: As of now we are at 2,533,431 units sold (not including Worldwide March in which I will provide a shortened version of this by Friday). I assume though that this month of march will reach around 860k, giving the RotW ~100k (putting Q1 at 2.63M a -14% drop YoY) So that would put the Switch at ~141.99M. (RotW guestimate from last post might seem low, I had it at 28k, but now I'm thinking it'll be closer to 100k which I based off of the downhill from Jan RotW and Feb RotW). Nintendo will probably announce 142M with either 10M or 12M as their next FY goal on May 7th. (I'm going with 12M since it is around a -30% decrease YoY, it is -27%.)

Q1 2024: I'm gonna look at software that is being released. Nintendo releases Endless Ocean: Luminous, Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (2024), Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. I think TTYD will be the huge summer hit. Sales in Japan are looking amazing, and we haven't seen the Golden Week sales yet. As of May 1st 2024, we have info on Japan April 7-21 sales at 135,554, and has 2 weeks left in April, so it is on par to match it's March sales (which are at 299k). I expect around 300k for Japan in April. April WW should be around 1M (Americas 380k, EU 230k, Japan 300k, RotW 130k). WW May should also be ~1M (Americas 400k, EU 240k, Japan 280k, RotW 130k). and June will be near 1M as well (Americas 380k, EU 220k, Japan 270k, RotW 90k. Meaning Q1 should ship around 3.05M. Putting the Switch at 145.04M (using the 141.99M from my guestimate of Q4).

Q2 2024: Here is were things get tricky. We dont know what games are coming out so we can really only go off of past Q2 numbers and speculate the YoY drop. Q2 2023 gave us 2.94M at a -9% decrease. Personally, I think this years will be a bit lower than that considering that we do not have any information for the second half of the year. I'll put the decline at -25%, giving us ~2.21M(rounded up). July will be the better selling month nearing 745k, August will slow up to 720k, and September will ramp up a bit at 740k. Bringing the Switch to 147.25M.

Q3 2024: We will do the same thing as Q2 guestimate. Q3 2023 gave us 6.9M at a -16% decrease. But before I set my decline, I think Nintendo will announce their successor on I will set this decline at around -30% giving us 4.83M. Until more information arrives this will be the hard floor. October will be the weakest month at 750k. November will bring us back up to 1.43M and December at 2.65M. Bringing the Switch to 152.08M.

Q4 2024: The successor has been released if rumors stay true. I believe it will launch near the same timeframe the Switch was given, near March 6th 2025. And we will start to see major declines ranging from -40% to -60%. The Switch families prices will have a permanent drop of a range from $50-$100. $50 seems to be the more likely scenario. I expect near a -30% decline overall this quarter reaching ~1.91M. January will be the highest at 820k, February at 640k, March at 450k (will be affected the most and will see a -50% YoY). Bringing the Switch to 153.99M. Just barely reaching their 12M mark. And will set their new goal to 25M (18M for the successor and 7M for the Switch, which is a -42% decrease YoY).

Q1 2025: I believe that with the end of March 31, 2025 they will stop producing Switch units but will continue to produce and ship Switch Lite and Switch OLED in order to keep SKU's low. Switch will still be receiving Nintendo published games and I expect a -50% YoY at ~1.53M. Bringing the Switch to 155.52M. Surpassing the Nintendo DS, becoming #2 All-Time. And for the future it will go on to reach its 7M goal by March 31, 2026 reaching 160.99M. And eventually ending sometime at 162.36M.

I will provide a "sparksnotes" verison once the Worldwide is released and the official Nintendo report is released. And I will make any necessary changes based on new information.

@CheddarPlease I hope this was what you were looking for. Any feedback is appreciated. :)

Lovely! I appreciate the thorough write-up, this is exactly what this forum needs more of :)

I will say, based on NA sales thus far, those figures do look a tad bit optimistic, but I haven't been too clued into the market as of late, so correct me if I'm wrong, but it does seem like NA has been selling only slightly ahead of Japan, and I'm not sure the likelihood that sales will pick up into the summer, but I do think it is well within the range of possibility

@CheddarPlease Thank you, I enjoyed doing this. So I'm glad you liked it.

NA sales have been getting lower but they have always been relatively close to Japan's numbers. Also I was using Americas, not NA. Americas includes North and South America, and South America and Mexico will become a bigger market in the next year and after. I would love to see a rundown for your 165M estimate. :)

Spark Notes version.

Sold is very parallel to shipped, so for simplicity sold=shipped.

Q4 2023: I predicted 2.63M, and was mistaken and it is in fact it was an underestimate, as far as the Worldwide March 2024 update, 2,718,604 units sold. Switch is at 142.08M for shipped. In 6 days, Nintendo releases their Fiscal Year Report, and I predict 12M as their hardware goal.

Q1 2024: Based on the constant lineup of games (at least one major Nintendo game a month) and Japan carrying the Switch, with their Golden Week sales too Q1 should ship around 3.05M. Putting the Switch at 145.13M.

Q2 2024: This is one of the weakest of the quarters for the past three years, and I expect that trend to continue. Q2 will ship 2.21M, bringing the Switch to 147.34M.

Q3 2024: I am being a bit pessimistic given that we have ZERO information regarding the lineup of games Nintendo has planned for the second half of 2024. Q3 will be around 4.83M, bringing the Switch to 152.17M. Japan will have surpassed Europe in sales.

Q4 2024: Successor is released in the last month, but will still take many sales away from the Switch. Nintendo should sell 1.91M units, bringing the Switch to 154.08M. Just barely reaching their 12M mark. And will set their new goal to 25M (18M for the successor and 7M for the Switch). Nintendo will announce that they have surpassed the Nintendo DS, making Switch the #2 All-Time best selling console.

Q1 2025: OG Switch consoles are no longer in production, but Switch Lite and Switch OLED are still raking in the dough, and will continue to be produced and shipped, especially with their new price cuts. Nintendo will sell 1.53M units, bringing the Switch to 155.61M.And for the future it will go on to reach its 7M goal by March 31, 2026 reaching 161.08M. And eventually ending sometime at 162.36M. And it may even sell more depending on how long they are willing to keep it.

Surprised so many believe it wont even outsell the DS with the successor not even announced. I'd say DS numbers is the absolute worst-case at this point. It will do it even without a price cut.

@Shtinamin_ Here it is! (keep in mind I prefer rounding to quarters of a million to account for uncertainty)

I actually have mine at just over about 161m, though I prefer to ever-so-slightly sandbag my numbers to make sure I don't overshoot too far since my goal baseline is still 160m.

Q4 FY2023: my prediction originally was a conservative 2.25m, but in light of strong Japan sales I raised it to 2.50m, which I'm keeping for the sake of consistency, even if sales are showing slightly more atm. Total through March 31 should be at least 141.86m, with a roughly 35/30/25/10 split between AM/JP/EUR/Other. Nintendo will probably shoot for a 10-11m fiscal year for Switch alone, maybe 14m if they decide to tease Switch 2 by the end of the fiscal year, but I assume they will aim for a more conservative target as they did last year. If the sales target is above 11m for Switch 1, 160m would be close to a lock, but 10-11m means that chances would still be around 66-75%.

Q1 FY2024: As in your case, a strong release calendar should keep sales elevated, even with Switch 2 around the corner. In keeping with my more conservative estimates I project sales of 2.75m. Sales will remain strong in Japan, but weaker platform sales in NA and Europe will probably keep overall totals below 2023 levels. Sales in the US may increase during this time, but this is where I believe the greatest uncertainty lies. Total through June 31 is 144.61m. 

Q2 FY2024: As @RolStoppable has been predicting, I expect new games to be announced for this quarter, due to the tight release schedule in the summer implying Nintendo has additional releases to plug the gap. MP4 will probably be announced for H2 2024 during a summer direct IMO. Nonetheless, this would probably come in time for a Switch 2 unveil, which would probably result in a slight sales depression regardless of lineup. This is where estimate ranges begin to diverge (I could see as high as 2.5m this quarter). As my predictions are meant to be a least-case scenario for reaching 160m, I will go with a soft case of 2.25m, though I must reiterate that the announcement of a successor would probably do more to dampen sales than weak release calendar (which I do not believe will be the case). Total through September 31 is 146.86m.

Q3 FY2024: This will be the first quarter with extensive bundles and discounts due to Nintendo wanting to clear out stock before Switch 2. I agree with your prediction that base SKU will be discontinued and OLED model cut in price. I expect the base model to go down to $250m, with the Lite and OLED remaining unchanged besides for more aggressive bundling due to Nintendo's rapid discontinuation of the base model. Sales overall will depend on the presence of a strong holiday title, hopefully being MP4, which will dictate overall sales momentum, as will the extent of discounts and bundles. The range here is very high, between 4.5-6m depending on if the holiday is more similar to 3DS 2016, Switch 2023, or Wii 2010. Once again targeting the lower end, I predict sales of 4.75m. Total through September 31 is 151.61m. Calendar year 2023 shipments by territory would be ~4.35m for the Americas (with a large portion of that coming from holiday promotions), ~3.1m for Japan, with a slightly bigger but still practically nonexistent holiday bump a la 2023, ~2.6m for Europe, with poor sales only slightly compensated by holiday bundles, and ~2m for other territories, in line with previous year trends. Total breakdown by territory is 58.25m/36.5m/38.75m/18m

Q4 FY2024: Sales will continue to decline in the wake of Switch 2 release in ~Mar 2025, with sales slipping in March 2025 especially: 1.75m. Most interesting and critical projection is sales expectation for 2025. I predict 18m for Switch 2, on par with the Wii's initial sales trajectory, but less sure for the original Switch. As much as I would like to see 7m sales for this year, 3DS only managed 6m on the back of a new and popular model revision (2DSXL) and continued exclusives such as a Pokemon game revision that year, which Switch will lack due to Switch 2 being almost certainly being backward-compatible. Total through March 31, 2025 is 153.36m.

Outlook for FY 2025 will be just under 6m, with sales being tilted strongly towards holiday sales to clear inventory. Total through March 31, 2026 is 159.11m. However, while I predict sales in 2025 to be below your 6m target, I do believe that Nintendo will continue to sell the Switch through 2027. For context, the 3DS still sold an additional 3.5m post-2017. As such I predict Switch will sell an additional 2.5m before its discontinuation, for a final total of 161.61m. Final regional breakdown: 62m in North America, 39m in Japan, 41m in Europe, and 19.5m in other territories. 

I snipped both of our posts to keep the focus on the "passing the DS or not" question.

Switch stands at 141.32m LTD shipments by March 31st 2024. Nintendo forecasts 13.5m for the fiscal year ending March 2025 which is more than I expected (see above, 11m). If this projection is met, then the DS (154.02m) will be surpassed during the end of the current fiscal year.

Only the PS2 is left. With Nintendo's forecast coming in above my expectations, I raise my previously mentioned probability for Switch outselling the PS2 from 75% to 90%.

So given the Nintendo report today I'm upping my estimate from 162 to 165. I was expecting a March release for Switch 2. Now I'm thinking somewhere in the May-November 2025 timeframe.