Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[RolStoppable]

Shadow1980 said:

RolStoppable said:

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Switch is on pace to exceed Nintendo's projected 141.1m LTD mark by March 2024 and they'll likely forecast a figure of ~11m units for the fiscal year ending March 2025, because Switch's successor will hardly have an impact in the upcoming fiscal year. That's a decline of ~30% after FY23 declined by only ~15%. That will put Switch's LTD by March 2025 at 152m; the DS's lifetime figure stands at 154.02m. An additional mere 2m after an 11m year aren't a challenge, so I don't need to go into detail for each region. Try to run a shipment forecast for yourself and you should realize how hard it is to keep Switch below the DS in lifetime sales.

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You and I clearly have different opinions on how fast the Switch will decline, and we just aren't going to see eye to eye on it. Hell, I probably am wrong regarding the DS, but I'm a stubborn old goat who'd still like to see a bit of vindication after the absolutely unnecessary abuse I got on this forum back in 2020-21. So let's leave it at that, shall we? Since we're just repeating ourselves every time a thread like this pops up, this will be the last time I discuss the matter until probably well after the Switch 2 releases and dust is starting to settle. Everybody already knows where I stand on the matter, and it's a waste of time to keep re-litigating it every couple of months.

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I snipped both of our posts to keep the focus on the "passing the DS or not" question.

Switch stands at 141.32m LTD shipments by March 31st 2024. Nintendo forecasts 13.5m for the fiscal year ending March 2025 which is more than I expected (see above, 11m). If this projection is met, then the DS (154.02m) will be surpassed during the end of the current fiscal year.

Only the PS2 is left. With Nintendo's forecast coming in above my expectations, I raise my previously mentioned probability for Switch outselling the PS2 from 75% to 90%.