Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[CheddarPlease]

Shtinamin_ said:

Switch shipped goes rather parallel with the amount sold. Personally, Ive been following the sold amount and adding the totals to the shipped numbers. And they have been very spot on with errors ranging from tens of thousands to 1.2M. But it has never sold more than shipped. (Though we might be seeing that this year)
Since Nintendo said the Switch shipped 139.36M units in Dec 31, 2023. The Switch as of Apr 29, 2024 data (which does not include March Circana or March worldwide, but does include Famitsu 7-21) the Switch sold an additional 2,395,216 units. So the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,755,216 units. Not counting the Famitsu 7-21, the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,619,662.

Let's make an assumption that Circana has Switch selling -20% what they sold in Mar 2023, giving us an estimate of 313,662 units. And worldwide would be just around 828,436 give or take a couple ten thousand.

Switch should have around 141.96M units shipped by Mar 31, 2024. I hope they announce it has surpasses 142M in their annual report.

Nintendo will either put they FY at either 10M or 12M (both are very possible outcomes, 10M would be rather easy for them unless their holiday is lackluster). Ill use 12M because I believe that would be achievable.
So by March 31, 2025 Nintendo will have shipped 153M Switch units. They will only need to sell 7M units to surpass the supposed and unreliable PS2 number provided by Jim Ryan.
I personally think it will sell 162.36M by the time the Switch is removed from the shelves. Meaning by March 31, 2025 the Switch would have to sell an additional 9.36M which can be achieved in 2027 (6M in FY2026, and 3.36M in FY 2027 or something along those lines).

I have my prediction at 160M for now as the hard line for it will reach that.

165M would be amazing!

Wow, someone actually who did the math! Would u mind sharing your predictions by quarter and region breakdown through Q1 2025 if possible?