CheddarPlease said:
Shtinamin_ said:
@CheddarPlease Thank you, I enjoyed doing this. So I'm glad you liked it.
I would love to see a rundown for your 165M estimate. :) |
@Shtinamin_ Here it is! (keep in mind I prefer rounding to quarters of a million to account for uncertainty)
I actually have mine at just over about 161m, though I prefer to ever-so-slightly sandbag my numbers to make sure I don't overshoot too far since my goal baseline is still 160m.
Q4 FY2023: my prediction originally was a conservative 2.25m, but in light of strong Japan sales I raised it to 2.50m, which I'm keeping for the sake of consistency, even if sales are showing slightly more atm. Total through March 31 should be at least 141.86m, with a roughly 35/30/25/10 split between AM/JP/EUR/Other. Nintendo will probably shoot for a 10-11m fiscal year for Switch alone, maybe 14m if they decide to tease Switch 2 by the end of the fiscal year, but I assume they will aim for a more conservative target as they did last year. If the sales target is above 11m for Switch 1, 160m would be close to a lock, but 10-11m means that chances would still be around 66-75%.
Q1 FY2024: As in your case, a strong release calendar should keep sales elevated, even with Switch 2 around the corner. In keeping with my more conservative estimates I project sales of 2.75m. Sales will remain strong in Japan, but weaker platform sales in NA and Europe will probably keep overall totals below 2023 levels. Sales in the US may increase during this time, but this is where I believe the greatest uncertainty lies. Total through June 31 is 144.61m.
Q2 FY2024: As @RolStoppable has been predicting, I expect new games to be announced for this quarter, due to the tight release schedule in the summer implying Nintendo has additional releases to plug the gap. MP4 will probably be announced for H2 2024 during a summer direct IMO. Nonetheless, this would probably come in time for a Switch 2 unveil, which would probably result in a slight sales depression regardless of lineup. This is where estimate ranges begin to diverge (I could see as high as 2.5m this quarter). As my predictions are meant to be a least-case scenario for reaching 160m, I will go with a soft case of 2.25m, though I must reiterate that the announcement of a successor would probably do more to dampen sales than weak release calendar (which I do not believe will be the case). Total through September 31 is 146.86m. Q3 FY2024: This will be the first quarter with extensive bundles and discounts due to Nintendo wanting to clear out stock before Switch 2. I agree with your prediction that base SKU will be discontinued and OLED model cut in price. I expect the base model to go down to $250m, with the Lite and OLED remaining unchanged besides for more aggressive bundling due to Nintendo's rapid discontinuation of the base model. Sales overall will depend on the presence of a strong holiday title, hopefully being MP4, which will dictate overall sales momentum, as will the extent of discounts and bundles. The range here is very high, between 4.5-6m depending on if the holiday is more similar to 3DS 2016, Switch 2023, or Wii 2010. Once again targeting the lower end, I predict sales of 4.75m. Total through September 31 is 151.61m. Calendar year 2023 shipments by territory would be ~4.35m for the Americas (with a large portion of that coming from holiday promotions), ~3.1m for Japan, with a slightly bigger but still practically nonexistent holiday bump a la 2023, ~2.6m for Europe, with poor sales only slightly compensated by holiday bundles, and ~2m for other territories, in line with previous year trends. Total breakdown by territory is 58.25m/36.5m/38.75m/18m
Q4 FY2024: Sales will continue to decline in the wake of Switch 2 release in ~Mar 2025, with sales slipping in March 2025 especially: 1.75m. Most interesting and critical projection is sales expectation for 2025. I predict 18m for Switch 2, on par with the Wii's initial sales trajectory, but less sure for the original Switch. As much as I would like to see 7m sales for this year, 3DS only managed 6m on the back of a new and popular model revision (2DSXL) and continued exclusives such as a Pokemon game revision that year, which Switch will lack due to Switch 2 being almost certainly being backward-compatible. Total through March 31, 2025 is 153.36m.
Outlook for FY 2025 will be just under 6m, with sales being tilted strongly towards holiday sales to clear inventory. Total through March 31, 2026 is 159.11m. However, while I predict sales in 2025 to be below your 6m target, I do believe that Nintendo will continue to sell the Switch through 2027. For context, the 3DS still sold an additional 3.5m post-2017. As such I predict Switch will sell an additional 2.5m before its discontinuation, for a final total of 161.61m. Final regional breakdown: 62m in North America, 39m in Japan, 41m in Europe, and 19.5m in other territories. Spoiler! Keep in mind, these number are as conservative as they can get while still projecting for above 160m in sales. With your numbers through 2026, I would expect final sales of over 165m. Assuming the latter half of this year is stronger than it currently looks and that Switch continues to get software support even after its replacement a la the PS4, we could conceivably see a high-end breakdown like this:
2.75m Q4 FY2023 - 142.11m Total (16.5m for FY2023)
3.10m Q1 FY2024 - 145.21m Total
2.50m Q2 FY2024 - 147.71m Total
5.50m Q3 FY2024 - 153.21m Total
2.00m Q4 FY2024 - 155.21m Total (13.1m for FY2024)
7.50m FY2025 - 162.71m Total
3.00m 2026-End - 165.71m FINAL
I love the final regional breakdown! The Q4 FY2023 needs to be reworked given that the sales have already gone passed your conservative prediction, unless you think that they won't shipped enough to replaced those that were sold in stores. And I believe that Japan sales will continue the trend of selling higher number of units than in Europe each month as it has been doing for a while now. Personally, I disagree with Europe numbers being higher than Japan's. May I ask why you think Europe's numbers will sell higher than Japan's? (at least for the Q4 2023, and I assume Q1 and Q2 2024
I will say that I totally forgot to account for the release of the successor to be included in the FY goal. So I will raise it to 15M (12M Switch, 3M Successor).
I do think it is interesting to think when they will announce the successor. So you think they will announce it in their June Nintendo Direct? Personally I think they can easily announce it in November this year and still have a huge turnaround, while not affecting sales as much. I think that MP4 will be the Holiday game for the year, I choose the holiday because idk what they have planned, and it just feels good.
And yeah I didn't necessarily think about getting the base Switch out faster in order to stop production on it. Solid thinking! I have to go over it again and make an edit or two after the Year Report. I do think that Legends Z-A will be a Switch title, and will release near February 2025. And I do think that the Successor will take a lot of sales away, it will only do so for the month of March. January is a solid selling month, especially with Japan's New Year deals. I think that Japan's total might be a bit closer to Europe's by the time the Switch family is completely discontinued. I think the 165M can be a reality, but I think Nintendo will want to abandon the Switch fast, about 2 years. And the software releases will essentially end by the time the successor releases, maybe add in one year just in case. And because I think that at the moment, the sales will mostly plummet after March 31, 2026. Like near 70%-80%. Hence why the ~1.28M more from my estimate of the numbers once March 31, 2026 happens. I enjoyed reading your breakdown of your conservative and your truly expected estimations. The numbers on your truly expected are rather close to mine, the only difference is 2026 and onwards. I can't wait to see the report. Thank you! |
