Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[Shtinamin_]

CheddarPlease said:

Lovely! I appreciate the thorough write-up, this is exactly what this forum needs more of :)

I will say, based on NA sales thus far, those figures do look a tad bit optimistic, but I haven't been too clued into the market as of late, so correct me if I'm wrong, but it does seem like NA has been selling only slightly ahead of Japan, and I'm not sure the likelihood that sales will pick up into the summer, but I do think it is well within the range of possibility

@CheddarPlease Thank you, I enjoyed doing this. So I'm glad you liked it.

NA sales have been getting lower but they have always been relatively close to Japan's numbers. Also I was using Americas, not NA. Americas includes North and South America, and South America and Mexico will become a bigger market in the next year and after. I would love to see a rundown for your 165M estimate. :)

Spark Notes version.

Sold is very parallel to shipped, so for simplicity sold=shipped.

Q4 2023: I predicted 2.63M, and was mistaken and it is in fact it was an underestimate, as far as the Worldwide March 2024 update, 2,718,604 units sold. Switch is at 142.08M for shipped. In 6 days, Nintendo releases their Fiscal Year Report, and I predict 12M as their hardware goal.

Q1 2024: Based on the constant lineup of games (at least one major Nintendo game a month) and Japan carrying the Switch, with their Golden Week sales too Q1 should ship around 3.05M. Putting the Switch at 145.13M.

Q2 2024: This is one of the weakest of the quarters for the past three years, and I expect that trend to continue. Q2 will ship 2.21M, bringing the Switch to 147.34M.

Q3 2024: I am being a bit pessimistic given that we have ZERO information regarding the lineup of games Nintendo has planned for the second half of 2024. Q3 will be around 4.83M, bringing the Switch to 152.17M. Japan will have surpassed Europe in sales.

Q4 2024: Successor is released in the last month, but will still take many sales away from the Switch. Nintendo should sell 1.91M units, bringing the Switch to 154.08M. Just barely reaching their 12M mark. And will set their new goal to 25M (18M for the successor and 7M for the Switch). Nintendo will announce that they have surpassed the Nintendo DS, making Switch the #2 All-Time best selling console.

Q1 2025: OG Switch consoles are no longer in production, but Switch Lite and Switch OLED are still raking in the dough, and will continue to be produced and shipped, especially with their new price cuts. Nintendo will sell 1.53M units, bringing the Switch to 155.61M.And for the future it will go on to reach its 7M goal by March 31, 2026 reaching 161.08M. And eventually ending sometime at 162.36M. And it may even sell more depending on how long they are willing to keep it.