Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[Shtinamin_]

CheddarPlease said:

Shtinamin_ said:

Switch shipped goes rather parallel with the amount sold. Personally, Ive been following the sold amount and adding the totals to the shipped numbers. And they have been very spot on with errors ranging from tens of thousands to 1.2M. But it has never sold more than shipped. (Though we might be seeing that this year)
Since Nintendo said the Switch shipped 139.36M units in Dec 31, 2023. The Switch as of Apr 29, 2024 data (which does not include March Circana or March worldwide, but does include Famitsu 7-21) the Switch sold an additional 2,395,216 units. So the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,755,216 units. Not counting the Famitsu 7-21, the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,619,662.

Let's make an assumption that Circana has Switch selling -20% what they sold in Mar 2023, giving us an estimate of 313,662 units. And worldwide would be just around 828,436 give or take a couple ten thousand.

Switch should have around 141.96M units shipped by Mar 31, 2024. I hope they announce it has surpasses 142M in their annual report.

Nintendo will either put they FY at either 10M or 12M (both are very possible outcomes, 10M would be rather easy for them unless their holiday is lackluster). Ill use 12M because I believe that would be achievable.
So by March 31, 2025 Nintendo will have shipped 153M Switch units. They will only need to sell 7M units to surpass the supposed and unreliable PS2 number provided by Jim Ryan.
I personally think it will sell 162.36M by the time the Switch is removed from the shelves. Meaning by March 31, 2025 the Switch would have to sell an additional 9.36M which can be achieved in 2027 (6M in FY2026, and 3.36M in FY 2027 or something along those lines).

I have my prediction at 160M for now as the hard line for it will reach that.

165M would be amazing!

Wow, someone actually who did the math! Would u mind sharing your predictions by quarter and region breakdown through Q1 2025 if possible?

Sorry for the delay I figured that the Americas information would arrive on Wed May 1, hence why I waited. I'll probably update it once the Worldwide is released and when the official Nintendo report is out too.

And yes, I would love to.
if I ever say sells, it means that it sold, and Nintendo is replacing it with a shipped unit. 1 unit sold = 1 unit shipped

Q4 2023: As of now we are at 2,533,431 units sold (not including Worldwide March in which I will provide a shortened version of this by Friday). I assume though that this month of march will reach around 860k, giving the RotW ~100k (putting Q1 at 2.63M a -14% drop YoY) So that would put the Switch at ~141.99M. (RotW guestimate from last post might seem low, I had it at 28k, but now I'm thinking it'll be closer to 100k which I based off of the downhill from Jan RotW and Feb RotW). Nintendo will probably announce 142M with either 10M or 12M as their next FY goal on May 7th. (I'm going with 12M since it is around a -30% decrease YoY, it is -27%.)

Q1 2024: I'm gonna look at software that is being released. Nintendo releases Endless Ocean: Luminous, Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (2024), Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. I think TTYD will be the huge summer hit. Sales in Japan are looking amazing, and we haven't seen the Golden Week sales yet. As of May 1st 2024, we have info on Japan April 7-21 sales at 135,554, and has 2 weeks left in April, so it is on par to match it's March sales (which are at 299k). I expect around 300k for Japan in April. April WW should be around 1M (Americas 380k, EU 230k, Japan 300k, RotW 130k). WW May should also be ~1M (Americas 400k, EU 240k, Japan 280k, RotW 130k). and June will be near 1M as well (Americas 380k, EU 220k, Japan 270k, RotW 90k. Meaning Q1 should ship around 3.05M. Putting the Switch at 145.04M (using the 141.99M from my guestimate of Q4).

Q2 2024: Here is were things get tricky. We dont know what games are coming out so we can really only go off of past Q2 numbers and speculate the YoY drop. Q2 2023 gave us 2.94M at a -9% decrease. Personally, I think this years will be a bit lower than that considering that we do not have any information for the second half of the year. I'll put the decline at -25%, giving us ~2.21M(rounded up). July will be the better selling month nearing 745k, August will slow up to 720k, and September will ramp up a bit at 740k. Bringing the Switch to 147.25M.

Q3 2024: We will do the same thing as Q2 guestimate. Q3 2023 gave us 6.9M at a -16% decrease. But before I set my decline, I think Nintendo will announce their successor on I will set this decline at around -30% giving us 4.83M. Until more information arrives this will be the hard floor. October will be the weakest month at 750k. November will bring us back up to 1.43M and December at 2.65M. Bringing the Switch to 152.08M.

Q4 2024: The successor has been released if rumors stay true. I believe it will launch near the same timeframe the Switch was given, near March 6th 2025. And we will start to see major declines ranging from -40% to -60%. The Switch families prices will have a permanent drop of a range from $50-$100. $50 seems to be the more likely scenario. I expect near a -30% decline overall this quarter reaching ~1.91M. January will be the highest at 820k, February at 640k, March at 450k (will be affected the most and will see a -50% YoY). Bringing the Switch to 153.99M. Just barely reaching their 12M mark. And will set their new goal to 25M (18M for the successor and 7M for the Switch, which is a -42% decrease YoY).

Q1 2025: I believe that with the end of March 31, 2025 they will stop producing Switch units but will continue to produce and ship Switch Lite and Switch OLED in order to keep SKU's low. Switch will still be receiving Nintendo published games and I expect a -50% YoY at ~1.53M. Bringing the Switch to 155.52M. Surpassing the Nintendo DS, becoming #2 All-Time. And for the future it will go on to reach its 7M goal by March 31, 2026 reaching 160.99M. And eventually ending sometime at 162.36M.

I will provide a "sparksnotes" verison once the Worldwide is released and the official Nintendo report is released. And I will make any necessary changes based on new information.

@CheddarPlease I hope this was what you were looking for. Any feedback is appreciated. :)