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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

The keyword there is most, Nintendo is doing so extremely well right now that the Switch 2 should have a really big launch assuming they don't screw it up. Also you're not taking into account that if the Switch launched in late 2016 by the time the end of 2017 came around it would've benefited from two holiday seasons instead of just one. There's a reason the rumour is it getting delayed to early 2025 instead of that being the original target.

Agreed, Nintendo knows that they need to makes sure their line up is packed with great games (but not too packed otherwise some games might not receive the attention Nintendo wants). 

I don't think I understand what you mean by that. So would it have been better to release in the holiday when only the hard core fans and scammers buy up all the consoles, leaving normal people to wait until next year (or a child's birthday)? Or would it have been better to just release consoles earlier than needed? I don't know. But I believe that Nintendo thinks a Spring launch will be most beneficial. 

Rumors are not facts. There is no delay. Until Nintendo (or any company) announces something there is no "original target". Nintendo has not announced the successor yet, therefore there was never a set launch date, therefore there is no delay or push back. There's a reason why rumors are to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 



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Launching a system during the holiday or in March 2025 (my guess) makes zero difference. It will sell out and by the time Nintendo gets their demand somewhat stable it will be the Holidays.

Launching Holiday 2024 is stupid, will have zero impact on sales. Might as well give the switch one more big Holiday and just launch Nintendo's 8th gen in 2025.



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Norion said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Agreed, Nintendo knows that they need to makes sure their line up is packed with great games (but not too packed otherwise some games might not receive the attention Nintendo wants). 

I don't think I understand what you mean by that. So would it have been better to release in the holiday when only the hard core fans and scammers buy up all the consoles, leaving normal people to wait until next year (or a child's birthday)? Or would it have been better to just release consoles earlier than needed? I don't know. But I believe that Nintendo thinks a Spring launch will be most beneficial. 

Rumors are not facts. There is no delay. Until Nintendo (or any company) announces something there is no "original target". Nintendo has not announced the successor yet, therefore there was never a set launch date, therefore there is no delay or push back. There's a reason why rumors are to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 

Launching in late 2016 wouldn't have made it sell any faster, because for all of 2016, the Switch was sold out and nowhere to be found. You can't sell something faster if you don't have more of it to sell. All waiting until Holiday 2016 would have done for Nintendo is hurt its stock and annual revenue because the sales and profits from the Switch would have come on quarterly reports half a year later.

Ashadelo said:

Launching a system during the holiday or in March 2025 (my guess) makes zero difference. It will sell out and by the time Nintendo gets their demand somewhat stable it will be the Holidays.

Launching Holiday 2024 is stupid, will have zero impact on sales. Might as well give the switch one more big Holiday and just launch Nintendo's 8th gen in 2025.

This, but if it's anything like the original Switch (or PS5 or XSX), it won't be stable by the holidays, and the majority of folks wanting a Switch won't be able to get one at MSRP.

Granted, the Switch was coming of the Wii U and 3DS, Nintendo's worst-selling console and worst-selling handheld, while the Switch 2 will be the success to Nintendo's greatest-selling console, so it's safe to assume that it'll be a bit more prepared stock-wise this time around.



The reason why console manufacturers target the holiday season for console launches is because it works as a safety net. Even if the launch isn't smooth, the gift-giving season is bound to provide a sales boost; this is why even the disastrous Wii U was able to manage to ship more than 3m units during its launch quarter. The other big factor is that a lot of people come together for Christmas, so there's bound to be more first-hand exposure to a new console than there would be at a different time of the year, and this exposure usually creates more post-launch demand.

Overall though, all the decades of video game history have made it clear that the launch timing isn't all that important. A well-executed system will do well regardless and a flawed system will come down to dangerous levels of sales also regardless of a holiday launch or not.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

You can also add costs and logistics to the mix. Distribution channels are more adapted for shipping big numbers in the holidays. Launching outside the holidays with the same numbers would mean an increase in costs.



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burninmylight said:
Norion said:

I'm saying it releasing in late 2016 would've made it sell faster than it did if they were able to get the first year software and enough stock ready by then. The Switch releasing early March was done out of necessity, not cause they thought it would be a better time than November. 

They're not facts yeah but when there's this much smoke there is likely fire and they obviously had a launch period in mind, this sort of stuff is planned years in advance. 

Launching in late 2016 wouldn't have made it sell any faster, because for all of 2016, the Switch was sold out and nowhere to be found. You can't sell something faster if you don't have more of it to sell. All waiting until Holiday 2016 would have done for Nintendo is hurt its stock and annual revenue because the sales and profits from the Switch would have come on quarterly reports half a year later.

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

Last edited by Norion - on 21 February 2024

Norion said:
burninmylight said:

Launching in late 2016 wouldn't have made it sell any faster, because for all of 2016, the Switch was sold out and nowhere to be found. You can't sell something faster if you don't have more of it to sell. All waiting until Holiday 2016 would have done for Nintendo is hurt its stock and annual revenue because the sales and profits from the Switch would have come on quarterly reports half a year later.

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

Outside of accurately estimating sales potential, why would it have been able to produce more stock by waiting until November to launch it? How does that make the number of available Switch units higher?

Doing so would have invited the risk of the pre-launch momentum dying down after an extra half-year and would have made it more difficult to make accurate sales projections. Which is more valuable data, actual sales and units shipped, or projections based on past console performance and Internet hype?



burninmylight said:
Norion said:

Read the bolded parts. I am talking about a hypothetical to show why towards the end of a year is the best time to launch a new console. 

Outside of accurately estimating sales potential, why would it have been able to produce more stock by waiting until November to launch it? How does that make the number of available Switch units higher?

Doing so would have invited the risk of the pre-launch momentum dying down after an extra half-year and would have made it more difficult to make accurate sales projections. Which is more valuable data, actual sales and units shipped, or projections based on past console performance and Internet hype?

Sorry but I genuinely have no idea what you're asking me or what exactly you're arguing here.



If for real Switch 2 launches 2025, then yes, Switch'24 is 10M lock for sure. Depending on the when the announcement for the next system take place, and if there are some price cuts for the Switch this year (in this scenario where Switch 2 launches 2025) there is even chance of reaching 12M for the year (although with price cut). And yes, this really opens the door for passing the DS and even reaching PS2. Since I started making the lifetime predictions for Switch, I really though a 2023 or 2024 at latest for successor's launch. But a 2025 launch really can change the tides and those early predictions of mine from ~135M (from 2020) to 150M since 2022 onwards to really become at least 155M or even 160M. 2025 launch can make the PS2 passing possible.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 21 February 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Yup, I expect the Switch to be in the range of the dates 150M sold next year. Prolly passing the DS but I'm still unsure when it comes to the PS2



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