Well, I guess the media (and Nintendo) only know about the 155mil. PS2's offcially sold (or shipped and ultimately sold). So for them, if Switch passes 155mil. it will be No. 1. However, for those in the know (like we here on VGChartz) passing 155mil. will definitely not yet be a win for Switch. Maybe, at this point Sony finally releases the definitive sold number for the PS2.

According to the most updated data we have available, the PS2 sold a minium of 158.6mil. and a maximum of 161mil. (and it is generally agreed that the number most probably is at the lower end of the spectrum). So in no way it is possible that the PS2 sold more than 161mil. Once the Switch reaches 155mil. I'm pretty sure it coughs itself past the 161mil. (unless it already had to cough itself to 155mil.)

From my perspective and conservatively counting, it will play out like this: 

1. First official numbers: Nintendo has forcasted 15mil. for FY2024. If they can hold their forecast, the Switch will be at 140mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2024.

2. From then on, speculations begin: FY2025 will definitely have a decline in sales. However, I'm quite confident that 10mil. can be shipped until end of March 2025 even if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (if it comes out in 2024, then more likely somewhere between Sept. and Dec.). I don't think that the release of Switch 2 will completely destroy the sales of Switch 1, simply because people buying a Switch 1 (many for their kids) so late in the cycle are not people who would by a Switch 2 so early in the cycle anyways. They are price sensitive people and will see value in a cheaper (or bundled) Switch 1. If that predection comes true we will be at 150mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2025.

3. For FY2026 a logical decline would be around 50% (i.e. 5mil.), so we would be at 155mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2026.

4. For FY2027 a logical decline would be another 50% (i.e. 2.5mil.), so we would be at 157.5mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2027.

5. For FY2028 we probably will have another 50% decline (i.e. 1.25mil.), so we would be at 158.75mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2028. At this point, once those shipped units are finally sold through, the PS2 will be most likely be beaten.

Considering that I was conservative in my counting above and that I always rounded down and that I think that Nintendo will produce the Switch 1 for many years to come because of high profit margins (i.e. beyond FY2028), I strongly believe that the Switch will sell some more here and there in some years than what I predicted above to ultimately come to 161mil. (and some). 

P.S.: From FY2026 to FY2028 I conveniently see a decline of 50% each year. In reality, it will not be like that but I think the final lifetime sale will be almost the same (some years will be higher and some lower than I predicted).

I wonder if Sony will release updated PS2 numbers if the Switch passes 155 million, just to still officially be on top.

I think they won't, unless they're confident the Switch won't pass the new updated number. If they were to update the number just after Nintendo makes a press release stating that "The Switch is now the best selling console of all time" it might seem like a weird petty move. For people like us it would be nice to know the official number either way, though.

I agree many families own one console per home, but I've know a lot of young married families with no kids that have a Switch console for each other. 
Exactly! I think that if (now this is just purely fun idea to think about) Nintendo had locked the Switch to one Nintendo Account (like the DS and 3DS) then we would be seeing Switch sales way higher than the measly 132.46 million. As you said and as Nintendo confirmed there are 330 million Nintendo accounts. 

6 days ago Sony announced that there are only 108 million active Playstation accounts. Playstation is 1/3 of the Nintendo user base. And Microsoft confirmed that at the end of 2022 there were 120 million monthly active Xbox accounts. So if we are still taking about a console war Sony is loosing it big time. Imagine 330 million Nintendo Switch consoles sold. That would be insane and unheard of.


Where are you getting those numbers for the US and Japan? The US population is 339,996,563, selling 51.03 million Switch units means that only 15% of the country is buying Nintendo Switch. I stated that if we change the demographic for the intended buyer which is around 10-30 years of age then the percentage is much higher at 33%. Same goes for Japan, that country's population is 123,294,513. Since it sold 31.77 million Switch units, only 25% of the population has a Switch. And I changed the demographic to fir the intended buyer, which is 10-30 years of age, hence the 64% owning a Switch.

I can see this going two ways:

Pacifist Route or the Jealous Route

In the Pacifist route, Nintendo will surpass the 155 million obstacle the PS2 placed. And the Nintendo Switch will be crowned the highest selling console of all time. End of that.

In the Jealous Route, Nintendo will be near the 150 million units sold Worldwide and Sony decides to finally do some calculations to determine how many PS2's were actually sold. Sony announces in their nearest Quarter Earnings Release that the PS2 has sold 158.7 million PS2's. Nintendo would now have to sell an additional 3.7 million more units than they were prepared for (maybe?), and can't reach the number due to the Nintendo NG being the newest addition to the Nintendo family. Or they surpass the 158.7 million.



I enjoy reading your analysis on how things will go down.
This is my synopsis for the Nintendo Switch's future (let me know what you think):

•2023-24 Q3 (Holiday season): Nintendo will sell 7.3 million, this is due to the decrease in videogame sales around the globe (due to the economy "fallouts") but the decline wont be as great (an -11% decline) due to the great bundle deals, the discounts for the season, and the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. I truly believe that this game will boom with families that are trying to raise good natured and a good value family.

•2023-24 Q4: We will see a moderate decline, somewhere along the line of (-8.8%) selling 2.9 million, due to workers getting their paychecks New Year's Eve bonuses (?).

•2024-25 Q1: Nintendo wont announce the successor (the NG) until the September Nintendo Direct, but they will announce that their production of Nintendo Switch is starting to slow down due to slow consumer purchases. And proclaim that the Switch has sold 142.66 million, and set their goal for 10 million units. They sell at a rather lower decline of -18% at 3.2 million. They hold a Direct showcasing their previously announced games and bring in some new ones as a last hoorah for the Nintendo Switch to help it in the summer. *Fun theory: They start selling older games polished up with better graphics, like Super Mario RPG, to get the interest of the 40 year olds. They bring back Super Mario All-Stars with an addition to Super Mario World, and even New Super Mario Bros Wii (they wouldn't go that far but a rerelease is possible). They make a Legend of Zelda All Stars (with 1, 2 and Link to the Past) or a 3D All Stars. I think that would help boost some sales. 

•2024-25 Q2: Late Summer hits and the sales are okay but the decline is feeling real, with a -29.3% decline selling 2.07 million. And in the middle of September (9/12/24), they showcase the Nintendo NG at the beginning of the direct, and the system launcher is a new 3D Mario (Nintendo launches a console with either Mario or Link). They start setting up ads everywhere for it, try to escape their "curse" (since the N64 every other home console has been a flop, GCN, WiiU). The true Nintendo fans line up to buy the $299.99 November holiday console.

•2024-25 Q3: Nintendo Switch is taking a toll but with the NG out Nintendo lowers the Switch prices. V2 will be $149.99, OLED will be $179.99, and the Lite will be $99.99, and bundle deals will be $169.99, $199.99 and $119.99 respectively. This will be a good boost for Switch selling it near 5 million, an estimated -31% decline based on my 7.3 million this season. While the NG sells 6-8 million.

•2024-25 Q4: Nintendo Switch will see another guestimated decline of -31% at 2 million.

•2025-26 Q1: Help me if I'm wrong but President Furukawa stated that Nintendo will support the Switch with software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. If that fiscal year ends on that March, then the Switch will officially be considered a dead console, Nintendo will drop it with no more content support. The servers will still be up for another 10+ years maybe, but all new game will be released on the NG. Nintendo announced that they sold 154.93 million Nintendo Switch consoles. Sales will start to dramatically decline. With a drop of -38% selling 1.98 million.

•2025-26 Q2: NG is the main console now. Nintendo Switch still sell due to lowered prices, 7+ year catalog and Nintendo Switch Online will be rebranded as Nintendo Online to accommodate for the NG branding with Switch. Switch will sell at a -40% decline, 1.24 million.

•2025-26 Q3: Switch is being forgotten but sells well at -51%, 2.45 million.

•2025-26 Q4: Switch sells at -68%, 0.64 miilion

•2026-27 Q1: Nintendo announces that the Nintendo Switch has sold 161.24 million earning the title of most sold video game console of all time (until another comes along of course). And declares that they have stopped production and shipped 162.36 million Nintendo Switch units.

.

Bascially, we are on the same page on this. However, I don't think the prices of the different Switch models will drop that deep as you assume. On the other hand, I think you have the New Switch at a too low launch price, I think it will be definitely more expensive than $299.99. I think it will be $399.99 (maybe even a premium model with card slot for $349.99). Other than that I think your Q4 for FY2024 with 2.9mil is too high as well as th 2mil for Q4 FY2025.

I'm glad we are on the same page of 161-162 million range.
What did you think will be the FY2024 Q4 & FY2025 Q4 sells then?

Yeah I only went that low cause the Wii dropped about $120 when the WiiU released. And the OLED needs to be less expensive than the NG. But if the NG prices at $399.99 then the Switch wont need to drop as drastically and will most like drop $50-$80.
The "leaks" and "rumors" are putting the NG launch price at $449.99 with a digital only at $399.99. If Nintendo does release a console at this price then I think my estimates for the Switch in 2024-25 Q3 all the way to 2026-27 Q1 will need to be much higher honestly. Most families would rather not buy a brand new console for $400+, sure it will be a Nintendo product but Nintendo does their best to be in a healthy range of $200-$300 for their products, which is why I said it would launch at $299.99. Families would rather get a cheaper older console with a proven library that will bring endless hours of fun and $60 games or less (except TotK). 
Now I have been proven wrong with the price of the OLED being at $349.99, so we shall see. We are entering new waters in the coming years.

I think Q4 FY2024 will be around 2mil. and for Q4 FY2025 around 1.3mil. I excpect FY2025 to ship around 10mil. Something between 5 - 5.5mil. in the holidays season (Q3) and the rest distributed among the other quarters of which I think Q4 will be the weakest.

Keep in mind that lately since what, maybe PS2 ? Consoles have died faster, and with bigger drops, so 50% per year may not be possible, but even bigger drops can hit. Also PS2 can be anywhere between 159 and 161/162M. Don't count only the lower numbers like 158.7M. Third of all, There is still a long way (about 30M to the higher PS2 number - 162M, which in this point in time in the system's life it's a lot.) for the Switch, the closer it get's the harder it becomes. Switch showed weeks of under 200k lately. This is not good. I mean yes it is normal and generally very good for a console in it's 7th year, but once a console comes from a peak period of close to 400k weekly to a period where it is not even reaching 200k weekly, then you know then end is near and the end has begun. If you look most of the consoles, when they start to sell around half (or lower) of their peak periods, then the decline becomes way quicker and faster. (maybe the only exclusion here is PS2)

I expect Switch to fell down to 150k weekly for the first half of next year and possibly to 130-120k weekly until the start of the holiday season next year. Which equates to around 10M at most for the next calendar year (the holiday period will take decent hit as well). From there as I already said, if we put trajectory similar to the consoles released in the last 10-15 years (after their peak periods and especially the time around launching the successor and after that) then the Switch can very quickly drop down to 5M for the 2025 calendar year with sales from 50 to 100k weekly and the next year after that (2026) should be it's last or second to last year with a sales of 1-2M and finally year of 500k to 1M for 2027. And yes the drops should be bigger than 50% based on the couple of the last consoles after PS2. Let's not forget that Switch 2 is very likely launching in 2024 and very likely having backwards compatibility. Nintendo historically hasn't launched much expensive hardware. So the chances are the Switch 2 won't be more than 300 or 350$ at most. Even if they do a Switch price cut it won't be bigger than 50$ which at that point will give little to no boost, since the difference between the two systems will be 100$ or 150$ maybe if we look at the lite model vs the base Switch 2 model.

So when we do the math Switch may very well end up of .. let's see, finish at around 15M this year so this is 5M from now to Dec 31st which is 135M in total after this year ends. With around 10M for the next year the number get's to 145M. Let's say 146M by end of 2024. With another 5M in 2025 we get to 151M, and no more than 3M after that, we get to DS's number 154M. Certainly has a chance of beating it, but even the lower number for the PS2 of 158.7M is looking far, let alone the higher ones (161/162M).

The entry level Switch is $199, I’m still baffled by people saying Nintendo will decrease prices soon.

The “aggressive” initiative they took by releasing Lite and OG Switch bundles in October seems that didn’t do too much, the system is still Down YoY in October compared to last year. November was kinda decent with the release of both Pokémon games but there’s nothing this year.

I’m thinking they’ll ship around 6.5-7m units for Q3 FY2023.

I do agree that Q4 of each year is the weakest in the earnings report in regards to console sales.
Ok so if I make the adjustment for Switch to sell 2 million and 1.3 million, then the Switch will land somewhere near the 159 million mark.

If you were Nintendo and wanted to reach 161 million, how and what would you do?