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Fight-the-Streets on 17 November 2023
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Shtinamin_ said:

I can see this going two ways:

Pacifist Route or the Jealous Route

In the Pacifist route, Nintendo will surpass the 155 million obstacle the PS2 placed. And the Nintendo Switch will be crowned the highest selling console of all time. End of that.

In the Jealous Route, Nintendo will be near the 150 million units sold Worldwide and Sony decides to finally do some calculations to determine how many PS2's were actually sold. Sony announces in their nearest Quarter Earnings Release that the PS2 has sold 158.7 million PS2's. Nintendo would now have to sell an additional 3.7 million more units than they were prepared for (maybe?), and can't reach the number due to the Nintendo NG being the newest addition to the Nintendo family. Or they surpass the 158.7 million.



I enjoy reading your analysis on how things will go down.
This is my synopsis for the Nintendo Switch's future (let me know what you think):

•2023-24 Q3 (Holiday season): Nintendo will sell 7.3 million, this is due to the decrease in videogame sales around the globe (due to the economy "fallouts") but the decline wont be as great (an -11% decline) due to the great bundle deals, the discounts for the season, and the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. I truly believe that this game will boom with families that are trying to raise good natured and a good value family.

•2023-24 Q4: We will see a moderate decline, somewhere along the line of (-8.8%) selling 2.9 million, due to workers getting their paychecks New Year's Eve bonuses (?).

•2024-25 Q1: Nintendo wont announce the successor (the NG) until the September Nintendo Direct, but they will announce that their production of Nintendo Switch is starting to slow down due to slow consumer purchases. And proclaim that the Switch has sold 142.66 million, and set their goal for 10 million units. They sell at a rather lower decline of -18% at 3.2 million. They hold a Direct showcasing their previously announced games and bring in some new ones as a last hoorah for the Nintendo Switch to help it in the summer. *Fun theory: They start selling older games polished up with better graphics, like Super Mario RPG, to get the interest of the 40 year olds. They bring back Super Mario All-Stars with an addition to Super Mario World, and even New Super Mario Bros Wii (they wouldn't go that far but a rerelease is possible). They make a Legend of Zelda All Stars (with 1, 2 and Link to the Past) or a 3D All Stars. I think that would help boost some sales. 

•2024-25 Q2: Late Summer hits and the sales are okay but the decline is feeling real, with a -29.3% decline selling 2.07 million. And in the middle of September (9/12/24), they showcase the Nintendo NG at the beginning of the direct, and the system launcher is a new 3D Mario (Nintendo launches a console with either Mario or Link). They start setting up ads everywhere for it, try to escape their "curse" (since the N64 every other home console has been a flop, GCN, WiiU). The true Nintendo fans line up to buy the $299.99 November holiday console.

•2024-25 Q3: Nintendo Switch is taking a toll but with the NG out Nintendo lowers the Switch prices. V2 will be $149.99, OLED will be $179.99, and the Lite will be $99.99, and bundle deals will be $169.99, $199.99 and $119.99 respectively. This will be a good boost for Switch selling it near 5 million, an estimated -31% decline based on my 7.3 million this season. While the NG sells 6-8 million.

•2024-25 Q4: Nintendo Switch will see another guestimated decline of -31% at 2 million.

•2025-26 Q1: Help me if I'm wrong but President Furukawa stated that Nintendo will support the Switch with software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. If that fiscal year ends on that March, then the Switch will officially be considered a dead console, Nintendo will drop it with no more content support. The servers will still be up for another 10+ years maybe, but all new game will be released on the NG. Nintendo announced that they sold 154.93 million Nintendo Switch consoles. Sales will start to dramatically decline. With a drop of -38% selling 1.98 million.

•2025-26 Q2: NG is the main console now. Nintendo Switch still sell due to lowered prices, 7+ year catalog and Nintendo Switch Online will be rebranded as Nintendo Online to accommodate for the NG branding with Switch. Switch will sell at a -40% decline, 1.24 million.

•2025-26 Q3: Switch is being forgotten but sells well at -51%, 2.45 million.

•2025-26 Q4: Switch sells at -68%, 0.64 miilion

•2026-27 Q1: Nintendo announces that the Nintendo Switch has sold 161.24 million earning the title of most sold video game console of all time (until another comes along of course). And declares that they have stopped production and shipped 162.36 million Nintendo Switch units.

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Bascially, we are on the same page on this. However, I don't think the prices of the different Switch models will drop that deep as you assume. On the other hand, I think you have the New Switch at a too low launch price, I think it will be definitely more expensive than $299.99. I think it will be $399.99 (maybe even a premium model with card slot for $349.99). Other than that I think your Q4 for FY2024 with 2.9mil is too high as well as th 2mil for Q4 FY2025.