The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Keep in mind that lately since what, maybe PS2 ? Consoles have died faster, and with bigger drops, so 50% per year may not be possible, but even bigger drops can hit. Also PS2 can be anywhere between 159 and 161/162M. Don't count only the lower numbers like 158.7M. Third of all, There is still a long way (about 30M to the higher PS2 number - 162M, which in this point in time in the system's life it's a lot.) for the Switch, the closer it get's the harder it becomes. Switch showed weeks of under 200k lately. This is not good. I mean yes it is normal and generally very good for a console in it's 7th year, but once a console comes from a peak period of close to 400k weekly to a period where it is not even reaching 200k weekly, then you know then end is near and the end has begun. If you look most of the consoles, when they start to sell around half (or lower) of their peak periods, then the decline becomes way quicker and faster. (maybe the only exclusion here is PS2)

I expect Switch to fell down to 150k weekly for the first half of next year and possibly to 130-120k weekly until the start of the holiday season next year. Which equates to around 10M at most for the next calendar year (the holiday period will take decent hit as well). From there as I already said, if we put trajectory similar to the consoles released in the last 10-15 years (after their peak periods and especially the time around launching the successor and after that) then the Switch can very quickly drop down to 5M for the 2025 calendar year with sales from 50 to 100k weekly and the next year after that (2026) should be it's last or second to last year with a sales of 1-2M and finally year of 500k to 1M for 2027. And yes the drops should be bigger than 50% based on the couple of the last consoles after PS2. Let's not forget that Switch 2 is very likely launching in 2024 and very likely having backwards compatibility. Nintendo historically hasn't launched much expensive hardware. So the chances are the Switch 2 won't be more than 300 or 350$ at most. Even if they do a Switch price cut it won't be bigger than 50$ which at that point will give little to no boost, since the difference between the two systems will be 100$ or 150$ maybe if we look at the lite model vs the base Switch 2 model.

So when we do the math Switch may very well end up of .. let's see, finish at around 15M this year so this is 5M from now to Dec 31st which is 135M in total after this year ends. With around 10M for the next year the number get's to 145M. Let's say 146M by end of 2024. With another 5M in 2025 we get to 151M, and no more than 3M after that, we get to DS's number 154M. Certainly has a chance of beating it, but even the lower number for the PS2 of 158.7M is looking far, let alone the higher ones (161/162M).

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 18 November 2023