The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

Fight-the-Streets said:

javi741 said:

Gonna be interesting to see when the Switch reaches the 155 Million mark and what will be considered the Switch becoming #1 all time in sales. Would it need to outsell PS2's last reported number of 155M units or would it need to outsell the estimated 159M unit figure to be considered #1?

I guess factually speaking the Switch would need to just outsell the 155M mark to be considered #1 cause if we use the estimated 159M fugure then it falls into the realm of speculation when debating if it is #1 which wouldn't be as credible for am argument that deals with hard confirmed facts.

However at the same time it is highly evident the PS2 sold more than 155M and it wouldn't be as honest to assume that Switch would just need to outsell the 155M number to be considered #1.

Gonna be interesting to see how it's debated and I think answering it will be big cause the gap between 155M to 159M could be huge in determining whether or not the Switch outsold the PS2.

Well, I guess the media (and Nintendo) only know about the 155mil. PS2's offcially sold (or shipped and ultimately sold). So for them, if Switch passes 155mil. it will be No. 1. However, for those in the know (like we here on VGChartz) passing 155mil. will definitely not yet be a win for Switch. Maybe, at this point Sony finally releases the definitive sold number for the PS2.

According to the most updated data we have available, the PS2 sold a minium of 158.6mil. and a maximum of 161mil. (and it is generally agreed that the number most probably is at the lower end of the spectrum). So in no way it is possible that the PS2 sold more than 161mil. Once the Switch reaches 155mil. I'm pretty sure it coughs itself past the 161mil. (unless it already had to cough itself to 155mil.)

From my perspective and conservatively counting, it will play out like this: 

1. First official numbers: Nintendo has forcasted 15mil. for FY2024. If they can hold their forecast, the Switch will be at 140mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2024.

2. From then on, speculations begin: FY2025 will definitely have a decline in sales. However, I'm quite confident that 10mil. can be shipped until end of March 2025 even if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (if it comes out in 2024, then more likely somewhere between Sept. and Dec.). I don't think that the release of Switch 2 will completely destroy the sales of Switch 1, simply because people buying a Switch 1 (many for their kids) so late in the cycle are not people who would by a Switch 2 so early in the cycle anyways. They are price sensitive people and will see value in a cheaper (or bundled) Switch 1. If that predection comes true we will be at 150mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2025.

3. For FY2026 a logical decline would be around 50% (i.e. 5mil.), so we would be at 155mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2026.

4. For FY2027 a logical decline would be another 50% (i.e. 2.5mil.), so we would be at 157.5mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2027.

5. For FY2028 we probably will have another 50% decline (i.e. 1.25mil.), so we would be at 158.75mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2028. At this point, once those shipped units are finally sold through, the PS2 will be most likely be beaten.

Considering that I was conservative in my counting above and that I always rounded down and that I think that Nintendo will produce the Switch 1 for many years to come because of high profit margins (i.e. beyond FY2028), I strongly believe that the Switch will sell some more here and there in some years than what I predicted above to ultimately come to 161mil. (and some). 

P.S.: From FY2026 to FY2028 I conveniently see a decline of 50% each year. In reality, it will not be like that but I think the final lifetime sale will be almost the same (some years will be higher and some lower than I predicted).

I can see this going two ways:

Pacifist Route or the Jealous Route

In the Pacifist route, Nintendo will surpass the 155 million obstacle the PS2 placed. And the Nintendo Switch will be crowned the highest selling console of all time. End of that.

In the Jealous Route, Nintendo will be near the 150 million units sold Worldwide and Sony decides to finally do some calculations to determine how many PS2's were actually sold. Sony announces in their nearest Quarter Earnings Release that the PS2 has sold 158.7 million PS2's. Nintendo would now have to sell an additional 3.7 million more units than they were prepared for (maybe?), and can't reach the number due to the Nintendo NG being the newest addition to the Nintendo family. Or they surpass the 158.7 million.



I enjoy reading your analysis on how things will go down.
This is my synopsis for the Nintendo Switch's future (let me know what you think):

•2023-24 Q3 (Holiday season): Nintendo will sell 7.3 million, this is due to the decrease in videogame sales around the globe (due to the economy "fallouts") but the decline wont be as great (an -11% decline) due to the great bundle deals, the discounts for the season, and the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. I truly believe that this game will boom with families that are trying to raise good natured and a good value family.

•2023-24 Q4: We will see a moderate decline, somewhere along the line of (-8.8%) selling 2.9 million, due to workers getting their paychecks New Year's Eve bonuses (?).

•2024-25 Q1: Nintendo wont announce the successor (the NG) until the September Nintendo Direct, but they will announce that their production of Nintendo Switch is starting to slow down due to slow consumer purchases. And proclaim that the Switch has sold 142.66 million, and set their goal for 10 million units. They sell at a rather lower decline of -18% at 3.2 million. They hold a Direct showcasing their previously announced games and bring in some new ones as a last hoorah for the Nintendo Switch to help it in the summer. *Fun theory: They start selling older games polished up with better graphics, like Super Mario RPG, to get the interest of the 40 year olds. They bring back Super Mario All-Stars with an addition to Super Mario World, and even New Super Mario Bros Wii (they wouldn't go that far but a rerelease is possible). They make a Legend of Zelda All Stars (with 1, 2 and Link to the Past) or a 3D All Stars. I think that would help boost some sales. 

•2024-25 Q2: Late Summer hits and the sales are okay but the decline is feeling real, with a -29.3% decline selling 2.07 million. And in the middle of September (9/12/24), they showcase the Nintendo NG at the beginning of the direct, and the system launcher is a new 3D Mario (Nintendo launches a console with either Mario or Link). They start setting up ads everywhere for it, try to escape their "curse" (since the N64 every other home console has been a flop, GCN, WiiU). The true Nintendo fans line up to buy the $299.99 November holiday console.

•2024-25 Q3: Nintendo Switch is taking a toll but with the NG out Nintendo lowers the Switch prices. V2 will be $149.99, OLED will be $179.99, and the Lite will be $99.99, and bundle deals will be $169.99, $199.99 and $119.99 respectively. This will be a good boost for Switch selling it near 5 million, an estimated -31% decline based on my 7.3 million this season. While the NG sells 6-8 million.

•2024-25 Q4: Nintendo Switch will see another guestimated decline of -31% at 2 million.

•2025-26 Q1: Help me if I'm wrong but President Furukawa stated that Nintendo will support the Switch with software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. If that fiscal year ends on that March, then the Switch will officially be considered a dead console, Nintendo will drop it with no more content support. The servers will still be up for another 10+ years maybe, but all new game will be released on the NG. Nintendo announced that they sold 154.93 million Nintendo Switch consoles. Sales will start to dramatically decline. With a drop of -38% selling 1.98 million.

•2025-26 Q2: NG is the main console now. Nintendo Switch still sell due to lowered prices, 7+ year catalog and Nintendo Switch Online will be rebranded as Nintendo Online to accommodate for the NG branding with Switch. Switch will sell at a -40% decline, 1.24 million.

•2025-26 Q3: Switch is being forgotten but sells well at -51%, 2.45 million.

•2025-26 Q4: Switch sells at -68%, 0.64 miilion

•2026-27 Q1: Nintendo announces that the Nintendo Switch has sold 161.24 million earning the title of most sold video game console of all time (until another comes along of course). And declares that they have stopped production and shipped 162.36 million Nintendo Switch units.

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