| javi741 said: Gonna be interesting to see when the Switch reaches the 155 Million mark and what will be considered the Switch becoming #1 all time in sales. Would it need to outsell PS2's last reported number of 155M units or would it need to outsell the estimated 159M unit figure to be considered #1? I guess factually speaking the Switch would need to just outsell the 155M mark to be considered #1 cause if we use the estimated 159M fugure then it falls into the realm of speculation when debating if it is #1 which wouldn't be as credible for am argument that deals with hard confirmed facts. However at the same time it is highly evident the PS2 sold more than 155M and it wouldn't be as honest to assume that Switch would just need to outsell the 155M number to be considered #1. |
Well, I guess the media (and Nintendo) only know about the 155mil. PS2's offcially sold (or shipped and ultimately sold). So for them, if Switch passes 155mil. it will be No. 1. However, for those in the know (like we here on VGChartz) passing 155mil. will definitely not yet be a win for Switch. Maybe, at this point Sony finally releases the definitive sold number for the PS2.
According to the most updated data we have available, the PS2 sold a minium of 158.6mil. and a maximum of 161mil. (and it is generally agreed that the number most probably is at the lower end of the spectrum). So in no way it is possible that the PS2 sold more than 161mil. Once the Switch reaches 155mil. I'm pretty sure it coughs itself past the 161mil. (unless it already had to cough itself to 155mil.)
From my perspective and conservatively counting, it will play out like this:
1. First official numbers: Nintendo has forcasted 15mil. for FY2024. If they can hold their forecast, the Switch will be at 140mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2024.
2. From then on, speculations begin: FY2025 will definitely have a decline in sales. However, I'm quite confident that 10mil. can be shipped until end of March 2025 even if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (if it comes out in 2024, then more likely somewhere between Sept. and Dec.). I don't think that the release of Switch 2 will completely destroy the sales of Switch 1, simply because people buying a Switch 1 (many for their kids) so late in the cycle are not people who would by a Switch 2 so early in the cycle anyways. They are price sensitive people and will see value in a cheaper (or bundled) Switch 1. If that predection comes true we will be at 150mil. (rounded down) at end of March 2025.
3. For FY2026 a logical decline would be around 50% (i.e. 5mil.), so we would be at 155mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2026.
4. For FY2027 a logical decline would be another 50% (i.e. 2.5mil.), so we would be at 157.5mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2027.
5. For FY2028 we probably will have another 50% decline (i.e. 1.25mil.), so we would be at 158.75mil. (rounded down) shipped at end of March 2028. At this point, once those shipped units are finally sold through, the PS2 will be most likely be beaten.
Considering that I was conservative in my counting above and that I always rounded down and that I think that Nintendo will produce the Switch 1 for many years to come because of high profit margins (i.e. beyond FY2028), I strongly believe that the Switch will sell some more here and there in some years than what I predicted above to ultimately come to 161mil. (and some).
P.S.: From FY2026 to FY2028 I conveniently see a decline of 50% each year. In reality, it will not be like that but I think the final lifetime sale will be almost the same (some years will be higher and some lower than I predicted).
