Blatantly wrong. That isn't this thread. The Liquid Laser and Ryng predicted 170m for Switch, and I figured if numbers reached that high then the Switch would at least be competing with the top consoles in each region. I didn't say the Switch needed to win every region, but it at least needed compensation from other regions if it fell short.

I like doing comparisons, so I compared with the top consoles and every year I update to see the progress just for the fun of it.

I described it but I haven't done it. Nowhere have I said the Switch (or any other console) that it wouldn't be successful if it weren't for some of the reason I am giving. I've always said that they only helped. Each of them add couple of millions to the total number. That's it. Not targeting me, at the same time quoting me and debating my posts with answer every time after this with over 10 replies for the whole thing. This is targeting.

I never said Switch had 240 million base for itself. I've just said, that because of this, handheld market has reached higher points therefore handheld market now reaching 170M is not mind blowing (reply to @javi741 ). As he and I discussed, from there on out, the smartphones have taken some portion of those 240M. It's still impressive for a console to reach 150-160M or even 170M if it reach them in the end, however, for the handheld console market, it's not so mind blowing since it's been even higher before. That was the only point I wanted to made and made with my original reply to @javi741 . And when you saw the word Switch in there you jumped right away, like always. You like to put words in the people's mouth, I noticed that couple of times now, doing it with me, and with others here too. That's not speaking well for your personality @Phenomajp13. Switch obviously does not have those 240M for itself, otherwise it would've been at least 220-230M by now, not 140M. And yes, if Nintendo don't drop it to 149$/199$/249$ or less and does in fact release the Switch 2 next year, I am making the point that the Switch won't make it to 170M. And 160M are very doubting of this moment as well. I can only see 170M happening in 2 cases, either decent price cut for the Switch 1 and delaying Switch 2 to at least 2026, or launching it next year but having decent difference in the price of both, let's say something like 200$ or more.

Also I've written posts, reasoning, explaining Switch's sales trajectory, advantages and disadvantages (and all the other consoles of course) and giving predictions as well, since a long time, not from recently. Most people know or may remember, that I started to write here actively since 2019. So it's not when I realized Switch is getting close to 150M or 160M, it was all the way back when Switch was in it's 40ties million. Someone haven't read the history and didn't informed himself on something he is saying constantly for the last 1 year...

I'll have to try to find that post but I'll take your word for it and my apologies. I must have missed that context.

Us debating is not targeting, I also never put words in your mouth or anyone else's mouth. You starting to post here in 2019 has what relevance? You still said the things you said including some downplay and I critized it. Your posts from 2019 and beyond are all here for us to see, it's a public forum. If you feel targeted because someone debates your ideas, then you could stop posting? I don't want that, I enjoy your post. 

PS: No one remembers or cares when you started posting. You starting to post when the Switch was around 40 million means nothing, you still had the opinion of it not making it (which is ok, that is the point of this thread). You are NOW claiming that this is something that doesn't surprise you after it gets this close. That's all I'm saying, I'm not saying you deny it has done well. I'm saying that all of a sudden you claim this isn't surprising because the handheld market is huge, yet you never brought these massive advantages up before when you said it wouldn't make it. 

Also maybe this will help strengthen your point. The Switch as a platform has around 240 million potential handheld console consumers and 270 million potential home console consumers leading to a massive amount of potential consumers that helped it reach a level that the other consoles just can't match. Doesn't that sound better than what your initial posts sounded like such as Switch is a handheld and Nintendo waited a long time to release its successor. You are allowed to say these things, just like I'm allowed to debate them.

Edit: I'll give you the last word here, I'll send you a message after your next reply. Also stop acting like you don't enjoy debates with me, you wouldn't entertain it if you didn't. You removing me as a friend was very mean of you by the way. 

I sense a stab towards an orange faced, weird haired famous (rectius, infamous) figure. I can't seem to remember the name...

You are targetting me for a debate, since whenever I make post about explaining whatever about Switch, you start to quote and debate me. You are putting words in my mouth since I've never ever said that Switch has a market of 240M users for itself. I simply made a comparison and a point, that the handheld market has seen better days in terms of hardware units sold, That's it. And because of that it's not mind blowing handheld console market to reach 170M.

The relevance I started posting 2019 is answer to this sentence of yours:

I've written about reasons, advantages and disadvantages, alongside predictions, since 2019, not since the Switch is getting too close to the 150 or 160M. And also no, they are not here because of the 2022 hack deleted all my previous posts alongside many other posts of other users as well. And yes, before I didn't expect it to reach close to PS2, since it was way far away, and there were so many variables and reasons it could gone wrong. As there is with many other consoles, as well. Many people back then didn't believe too. In fact there were small number of people who back in 2019 or 2020 believed the Switch will actually get so high, and that is because it's normal for a console generation to continue around 6 to 7 years, and many expected 2023 launch back then. I am sure that even you if were asked back in 2020 would say the same, pretty much no one could predicted Nintendo would wait till 2025 for a successor. I claimed it won't surprise me because those 2 things weren't expected to happen, yes. There were new developments, and changes to the situation. That's why I say it wouldn't surprise me, not because the people who said in 2022 it will reach 160M, are right, since in the end, they may end right, but it would be not because of their expert opinion, but because of things that most didn't expect would happen. The baseline prices in the industry to get higher, and the Switch getting delayd from original expected (by many, earlier in it's life) release year of 2023, to 2024 (for the last 2 years), and now 2025. There are new reasons that supports their otherwise wrong prediction (since Switch is now at 140, and if the 2023 or 2024 launch happened, the chances would be ever lower for it reaching 160M) and because of that, their prediction may end right. Do you get what is my point ? It's not about right or wrong, it's about some people does not have enough of a data to be so sure about higher than the normal number so they can support their prediction when they made it originally. Yes there are reasons now, however the chances of these things happening very low, since when in a previous generations this happened ? delay of 2 years than it should be (judging by other normal generations) and the baseline for consoles going from 300$-400$ (being that for decades) to something like 400-600$ now ? In other words, all of people predicting 150-160 or beyond may end right just because of some things happening, with a chance to happen close to zero back when they wrote it. I am even sure that if there was a time machine, and you could go back 2-3 years and asked them if those 2 things will happened and because of this Switch can helped it self to reach the 160M, many of them would tell you no, and that those 2 things won't happened.

That's why I say I look realistic at the things, not optimistic or pessimistic. The normal scenario which would happen, and is often happening with generations, and even if you were to ask many people 2-3-4 years ago and they would be on the same opinion is this: launching a successor in 2023, or early 2024 at the latest (since every generation is around 6-7 years, and Nintendo especially have a history of launching it even sooner than the 7th year, let alone 8 years), alongside with that the other normal thing to happen, and many would voted too would be dropping the prices of PS and XBOX to 400$ and budget models to 300$ by now, (which would surely got some of the sales on the Switch, since bigger choice of budget consoles) and launching the Switch 2 (in the 2023 or early 2024) for 300 to 400$, which would greatly decrease sales for the Switch 1, which would start to decline even from the announce let alone the release of the new console, and by now, and 2025, Switch would be on it's last legs. And it wouldn't reach 150M or 160M in this otherwise usual development of the generation.

So yes, I may be end wrong with my original prediction of Switch not reaching 155 or 160M but given the circumstances, factors and variables I had back then you can't say that I've downplay, or low balling the Switch. (Mind you big portion of the people back then also didn't expected 150 or 160M because of the reasons I just wrote. So are they downplaying and low balling too ? ).

I never brought the handheld market thing because I never though about it, and now when @javi741 said it's mind blowing, I did, since it's true. The handheld console market was in fact bigger once before, therefore it's not mind blowing that is reaching 170M now. It's still good of course, very good, because the smartphones have taken some of the pie as well over the years. But mind blowing for me is something that hasn't been done before. And this has. In the handheld console market. As I said, for a single system, it's mind blowing. That's why I said it depends from which point you look it at.

You get this wrong. I've never said that because the handheld console market had once reached 240M, that this means the Switch has 240M potential consumers. I've simply said it's not mind blowing since the handheld console market has been bigger than it is now. This does not mean that Switch now has 240M potential buyers. 270M also it's not accurate for home console consumers, since big portion of the Wii consumers weren't gamers. They bought it to play casual games like Wii sports (80M+ in sales proves it). Those are not the same people who buys Xbox, playstation or Switch (for home use).

I'll put direct answer to your claim. The Switch as a platform would reach high number of sales through out it's life, no doubt about that, because it's great system, has great marketing, how probably the best library in Nintendo's history of consoles and handhelds, it's innovative and combines handheld and home console gaming in one place, and it's selling at a good price, giving you a budget friendly option like the Lite, and a premium one like the OLED. However reasons like the lack of direct handheld console competition, way higher prices and offers from the other players in the gaming industry (Sony and Microsoft) for the second part of it's life (and the lack of price cuts), prolonging it's life to it's 8th year, instead of it's 6th, 6th and a half, or 7th year (as it is traditional with Nintendo and all other console manufacturers), and very big chances of launching it's successor at price that won't compete with it's 200$ to 300$ price range (which is usually the thing Nintendo does, launching the new console at not that more expensive price than it's last gen console) are all reasons that are greatly helping and will continue to help the Switch reaching 150M, 155M, and possibly 160M as well. Without those reasons, it would still be very successful and well sold, however it wouldn't be reaching numbers into 150 and possibly 160M by the end of it's life. It could end at 120M, 130M or 140M (depending on what and how would happen).

Also don't send me message, this is all about the Switch, we are in the right thread. There is no need for private message, let everyone see what you have to say about that. (personal messages also had limit of writing, so here is the best place). You can't send me messages too, since the settings in my profile are that I can receive those only from friends. So you either answer me here in front of all, or doesn't. I removed you, because, the last time we debated, I've accidentally clicked on friend request on the drop down menu near your profile picture, and there wasn't option to cancel the request. You accepted it, and after I got the notification about that some days later, I removed you. I've never had the intention to add you to my friends list. Also if you were to enjoy it you wouldn't be in a hurry to stop it, and say it's your last post, after only a few posts of debating, you would want to continue, you would do big posts like mine or even bigger, and continue. It seems your energy for writing and debating is running out. Mine as you see is just starting, I just made the biggest post I've made to this moment. And I can continue much more. So in future, if you want to criticize me again, you will have to pay the price of reading books over here and answer them days on end heading into weeks. Think smart if this is what you want, and if that is in your interest. Cuz my energy is infinite about that. If you can't answer on that in debates, then you will have to let my posts about the Switch run free (call it downplaying or lowballing, or whatever you want). That's it.

Since you want the battle here, ill entertain you. This is why I like you, I love the energy. I have it too and now its time to dismantle your logic. Just to be clear my aggression towards you isn't because of your lowball predictions but because of your intentions. Your intent seems to be downplay at all cost and honestly I almost began to believe you and maybe I was wrong but you couldn't help to reveal your true colors again but ill touch on that soon.

1) I am not targeting just because I am debating you. I didn't put words in your mouth, that was your obvious attempt to downplay. The 240 million has no relevance at all because its just a made up figure you pulled from your butt to downplay Switch and paint the picture it has an unfair advantage to sell to people that PS and Xbox can't reach. Which is their problem but your hate towards the platform has you using that nonsense figure to downplay. Which again, if you knew this advantage existed why would you predict the Switch to not exceed the 160 million this thread is about? That doesn't line up, you knew the 7th gen had all that potential right? Did you expect the Switch to fail to reach them? Its almost like this is something you only acknowledge now because you have had to consistently adjust your prediction up. 

2) I seriously don't follow you on this, what does that sentence have to do when you started posting? That sentence is literally me saying you didn't acknowledge this massive handheld userbase until NOW, which is convenient since now is when you are beginning to realize it's very likely to happen. So its your way of coping/downplaying. You knew the Switch had this advantage but you never mentioned it until now you realize you will be wrong.

3) I first need to start off by pointing out Rol, the creator of this thread stated his expectations were for the Switch successor to not show up until 2025 lol, so no you dont get to claim you are a victim because Nintendo didn't do what you expected. You just weren't smart enough to see this. Maybe next time you will not assume things based off of made up rules like a successor has to show up in 6 or 7 years because both the Xbox 360 and Game Boy would like a word with you. So no I don't care about your excuses, the unexpected comes with the territory. You should have the common sense to know if things don't go the way you think they will (you don't work for the company so this could always happen) then there is a big possibility I am way off. I would also like to point out that your predictions don't have to have caps, you could just say I can see it selling 120 million + (my PS5 prediction) but instead you would rather put a cap on Switch because you don't want it to surpass the PS2. So no you are not a victim of a delay lol, the platform hasn't even been announced and you talking about a damn delay. How can you delay something that was never announced? That's how bad you want to be a victim lol. 

As for myself, if you asked me in 2020 lol about a Switch successor in 2023, I would have told you no because I just witnessed the Switch post a 30 million year and wouldn't have enough time to decline to low enough figures to justify a successor so quickly. Nintendo would be making the same mistake they made with DS and 3DS transition. I have always been on team holiday 2024 but I was worried about Zelda ToTK being used in a cross gen release. In late 2022, it was announced to be a May 2023 release and that was the final nail in that coffin for a 2023 release at all according to me. My personal way of making these predictions is different from yours though, I judge based on the trajectory, not the successor. Of course the successor makes a difference but I think the biggest difference is the platforms trajectory. The Switch peaked at about 30 million, it always had a shot as long as Nintendo doesn't kill it prematurely. No, im not talking about a successor killing it, im talking about Nintendo ending its support.

As for what others expected, same thing to them I said to you. It does not matter! That's the issue with people's predictions to begin with, some of you have a figure in mind already and then set the trajectory from there. We do a poor job of expecting the unexpected and on top of that we put a cap/maximum. This isn't about poor predictions though, I expected the successor in holiday 2024 and was wrong. This is about your behavior (downplay) after the wrong predictions. 

4) It's interesting that you continue to put the Switch solely in the handheld market, what's your definition of the home console market? 

5) Now the fun part, where your true colors shine the brightest lol. This is downplay, you didn't just say the 240 million was the size of the handheld market at its peak, you also stated how the handheld market at its peak was bigger than the PS and Xbox market combined while conveniently leaving out Wii for your nonsense but not doing the same to DS. That's the downplay, you deliberately left out the massive strinkage in the 8th gen also which is weird because does it not prove the DS was also massively boosted by casual gamers? Or since that didn't fit the agenda, you have no issue with being disengious about the handheld market but don't do the same to the home console market? Also lol at the 80+ million that purchased Wii Sports is proof of how many casuals brought the system like it also wasn't a mass bundled game. Why not use Wii Sports Resort as proof that only 30 million casuals bought it? This is the disengious stuff I call out about you. You try so hard to act like you are this non bias poster when its clear as day. All im saying is that we don't know how many casuals (not sure why this even matters, they are consumers) bought a Wii or DS but for your agenda you made sure to discount all of the Wii consumers but count all of the DS consumers. The people that primarily played for Wii Sports and Wii fit should be treated the same as the people that played for Nintendogs and Brain Training because they both failed to show up for the successors. I mean honestly whats your proof that the Wii Sports and Wii Fit consumers are still absent considering Nintendo Switch Sports and Ring Fit Adventures did quite well, while Nintendogs hasn't shown up again and Brain Training I believe released on Switch and sold far worse than Nintendo Switch Sports and Ring Fit Adventures, yet we want to call out Wii consumers?

6) Nothing more than excuses, next time expect the unexpected and stop being so focused on the past. This is especially dumb when you realize the pandemic should have obviously had a bigger influence on decisions today than what these companies did in the past. Nintendo releasing a successor in 2023 was dumb when you consider the prior year had the console selling around peak Playstation figures and Sony/MS were struggling with supply lol. Why would none of that be taken into account on when Nintendo should show up with a successor?

@Phenomajp13 

1) The 240M isn't pulled from my butt, It is a fact. Handheld console market in the 7th gen has reached the highs of almost 240M. So this sentence alone has to be you downplaying as well. (using your words). I also have no hate whatsoever for Switch. I don't have reasons to hate some gaming system. Are you serious ? Especially system full of games, for which I admire Nintendo, this is how it's done. Opposite to Sony and Microsoft, which are very very weak with their latest consoles, when it comes to games. I my self am very disappointed by this. I even don't know how PS5 is selling so well worldwide with the lack of games compare to previous PS consoles it has. Also this point of view that the handheld market had 240M was is in no way connected to paint some picture for the Switch, if I wanted that I could just say it before or as separate post, not answering to someone's post and the word "mind blowing". And trust me, Switch selling is not a problem for the other consoles. And to quote " sell to people " ? Are we in a game store or what ? So you are telling me I am telling some things and people are buying it ? Are you saying that people change their minds, over some opinions over the web ? Ridiculous. Go rest, you need it, honestly. Why I haven't predicted 160M for the Switch before if I knew this ? It's simple, I know the Switch is a single console, I see it's 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, 4th year, I see it has normal lifecycle, with normal selling units every year just like every other console (very strong peak period, but I mean usual numbers, that have been done before, like 20-30M not like 50M per year) And since I see it has a normal console lifecycle and nothing out of the earth such as 50M per year, I know it's lifecycle will be in the normal borders around 6-7 years (it turns out it will be 8th years as a major console) but still in the normal borders, not like 12 or 15 years for example. Because of this I know that since only 1 console have reached the range around 160M (PS2) and one more (the DS) reached 154 in the course of 8 years, and there are many many other consoles, the chances of reaching the same numbers or even beat them is small and it needs for all factors, variables and things that depends on Nintendo themselves to happen and to line perfectly(talking about from few years ago point). And since the chances for this when you look the console from it's first half of the life are small, and you are still far away to be able to predict more precisely, I decided it won't. Again with the information I had when I made those predictions. Just like now people are telling mostly 100-120M for PS5, and it may end up short of that or even bigger than that, just like every other prediction can be wrong when it's made far from the end. The 7th gen had the potential but with the smartphone market and Switch being a single system, with tradition lifecycle, I don't expect it to reach 240M. With having no direct handheld competition I would expect it to reach numbers less than that, I just explain it to you in my previous post why it will. I haven't constantly adjusted my prediction up. It was adjusted up once, to 150-155M range, and adjusted second time recently. The one time was because of the delay, the second time because of the price thing I already explained to you.

2) Me posting since 2019 is the answer to you telling me I started to post about some of the reasons that helped Switch and it's final number when it's very close to the 150-160M. I am telling you that I haven't started now, I have posts for the Switch, predictions and opinions not since Switch is closing on 150 or 160 but as far as it was in the 40ties. That is my point.

3) I haven't said that there are no people predicting 2025, I said that the vast majority of people didn't expect and predict launch so late as 2025. There were polls even go take a look if you want, pretty much all of the votes were for 2023 and early 2024 back then not 2025. Also I am not a victim, this is simply projections predictions, on a gaming forum, for systems of our hobby - gaming. We can't be victims, losers, winners, or whatever. The one person sees the things in one direction, the other person sees them in other direction. That's it. I am not smart enough to see 2025 releasing of Switch 2 back in 2020 or 2021 ? So maybe almost all of the people who are here are not smart because they haven't seen it as well... very smart from you, congrats.

3.1) Xbox 360 and Game boy ? Did you really read my previous comment carefully ? word by word ? have I said that no console had such thing ? does the word "traditionally" or "usual" mean anything to you ? And why you continue to put it as I am so bad about thinking this way, when almost all of here back then posted the same opinions about the matter, expecting traditional lifecycle with every single factor I wrote in the previous post ?

3.2) Of course I don't work, and this can happened, no one has denied that. And I always know everything is possible. I simply didn't believe this will happen because the chances were small, since many other times Nintendo stick to the traditional way, and therefore when people makes a prediction he has to say the thing that is most likely to happen according to him, And I did. My prediction was simply the most likely way the things are gonna go according to me.

3.3) I also don't have desires, so passing the PS2 or not, is no difference for me. I am looking it as a number, not as a console passing. Also I like to work with ranges not + or - . And I always give ranges, so no caps. It seems you haven't understand me correctly again. Of course the console is not announced, and can't be delayed going by the word itself. I am simply telling you, that I myself just like many others (saying it again cuz I want you to see that this is not downplaying or low balling or anything to do with hatred, since it's not only me who expected this but almost anyone back few years ago) expected launch of 2023 or 2024 at max. And the word delay is used unofficially by many sites this included, when the reports and rumors came out for the system earlier in the year that it may launch in 2025. So why don't go tell all the media to not use that word since it's not announced officially ?

3.4) Do you see ? even you were in team 2024, just like most of the people, so not 2025. So you expected 160M with launch right now ? It seems you are way optimistic. I also look about the trajectory, this is the primary thing. I agree with you on that. However for me the successor's launching and announcing is also important thing. For example Sony did big mistake by announcing PS5 way too early in late 2018 or early 2019 I think. This was stupid. Nintendo, when I look their history They had many times where the system didn't started to decline too much and they rushed to announce and release successor, this is also the reason I didn't put 2025 as an viable option for Switch 2, back in 2020 for example. I am not even sure if Nintendo has had case where it released something 5 full years after the peak year of a system (maybe game boy ?). In other words you can't call this downplaying, low balling, hating or something like that. This is just normal opinion. This have been written here by many before, I doubt every of those people are down players or haters. My behave is not downplaying, it's simply putting the reasons that helped Switch get there or ahead. Those are a facts they are not lies. Downplaying would be to say for example that Switch is selling only just because there are no other handhelds or just because it's the cheaper console. I've always credit and appreciate the Switch for what it is, and have always acknowledged it's strong sides.

4) Not all of the Switch owners bought it to use it as a handheld, but all of the people that wanted handheld bought the Switch. My definition of the home console market, is that there are three players there, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. Switch has portion of that home console market as well. Being in the two markets is now a mind blowing thing, for the Switch. I like it.

5) I already touched on that Wii question of yours, but it seems you haven't got it right again. Casual or no casual players all of this are consumers yes, and they are not discredited. I am not simply saying that 80M+ are casuals. (the number is just random, of course we can't know how much of them are hardcore console players, but it doesn't matter really I will explain about that now) My point is that big portion of the Wii users were people who are not gamers, such as grandpas grandmas or father and mothers, that didn't know games or consoles, that are gamers at all. I am not saying here how much of those were hardcore, casuals or not gamers at all, I am saying to you that the number can't be 270M exactly representing the home console gamers since Wii is not taken as a console picked fully by gamers. It exploded mostly of it's gimmick. It was the thing that was used in the ads even, this is how Nintendo were marketing it. DS had casual gamers as well, Switch has too. But if you want to play on handheld you are not grandpa and grandma or person that doesn't touched games. You the kid that is growing gamer you are the casual or the hardcore gamer. You can be the home console gamer even if you want.

5.1) I didn't picked 8th gen handhelds cuz the example I originally gave was reply to @javi741 again. And the word mind blowing. Of course there have been weaker generations. But the mind blowing word is used for strong things, or in our topic, high sales. Therefore to make the point I needed to give the highest point. And since there have been highest point than what the handheld console market is now, the point we are now isn't so mind blowing. That's all. Why would I want to give example with way lower number, when trying to prove handheld console market is not mind blowing now ? Also counting DS and not Wii does not have correlation since the example I gave with the home consoles was answer to him again since he put the PS+XBOX number, not PS+XBOX+Wii/Wii U. DS I counted since it was the highers point in the handheld console market from a previous gen.

6) I always expect the unexpected, simply when you are doing prediction you have to do it with the most likely things to happen according to you. And according to my most likely things to happen I did. And I can't ignore the history. It's what bring us to the now. And if it isn't for the history and the now, there won't be future too. Also all of this I spoke about was back in 2020, 2021. Back then no one could not know how would the pandemic develop and continue, what will happened, it was chaos with many many things for the normal life let alone the technologies, if you remember. Nintendo releasing console in 2023 was dump after you saw the prior year yes. I said expecting 2023 or 2024 launch, not in the same 2023 year, but a few years ago, 2019, 2020, or 2024 launch by 2021. At that point you can't know numbers for 2 years ahead. Struggling supply I personally expected to be finished by end of 2021, but it ended in early 2023. That's why. Again this is not only me, so when you put me label, you put it on other people here as well.

7) Nice post, this time, way better than the last couple posts you did. This post I liked. You didn't agree with me on some points, but at least you didn't attack personally so much and just go over the points, the way you should do every time. Instead every time you do half on the points, half on trying to personally attack and put labels. That's not how it's done. This post of yours is how is done (although it can be perfected a little more, it was way better than the previous ones).

I think these are some of the longest argument replies I have ever seen on this site lmao.