The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Phenomajp13 said:

Us debating is not targeting, I also never put words in your mouth or anyone else's mouth. You starting to post here in 2019 has what relevance? You still said the things you said including some downplay and I critized it. Your posts from 2019 and beyond are all here for us to see, it's a public forum. If you feel targeted because someone debates your ideas, then you could stop posting? I don't want that, I enjoy your post. 

PS: No one remembers or cares when you started posting. You starting to post when the Switch was around 40 million means nothing, you still had the opinion of it not making it (which is ok, that is the point of this thread). You are NOW claiming that this is something that doesn't surprise you after it gets this close. That's all I'm saying, I'm not saying you deny it has done well. I'm saying that all of a sudden you claim this isn't surprising because the handheld market is huge, yet you never brought these massive advantages up before when you said it wouldn't make it. 

Also maybe this will help strengthen your point. The Switch as a platform has around 240 million potential handheld console consumers and 270 million potential home console consumers leading to a massive amount of potential consumers that helped it reach a level that the other consoles just can't match. Doesn't that sound better than what your initial posts sounded like such as Switch is a handheld and Nintendo waited a long time to release its successor. You are allowed to say these things, just like I'm allowed to debate them.

Edit: I'll give you the last word here, I'll send you a message after your next reply. Also stop acting like you don't enjoy debates with me, you wouldn't entertain it if you didn't. You removing me as a friend was very mean of you by the way. 

You are targetting me for a debate, since whenever I make post about explaining whatever about Switch, you start to quote and debate me. You are putting words in my mouth since I've never ever said that Switch has a market of 240M users for itself. I simply made a comparison and a point, that the handheld market has seen better days in terms of hardware units sold, That's it. And because of that it's not mind blowing handheld console market to reach 170M.

The relevance I started posting 2019 is answer to this sentence of yours:

Phenomajp13 said:

It's almost like you didn't decide all these advantages were advantages until you realized Switch is getting too close!

I've written about reasons, advantages and disadvantages, alongside predictions, since 2019, not since the Switch is getting too close to the 150 or 160M. And also no, they are not here because of the 2022 hack deleted all my previous posts alongside many other posts of other users as well. And yes, before I didn't expect it to reach close to PS2, since it was way far away, and there were so many variables and reasons it could gone wrong. As there is with many other consoles, as well. Many people back then didn't believe too. In fact there were small number of people who back in 2019 or 2020 believed the Switch will actually get so high, and that is because it's normal for a console generation to continue around 6 to 7 years, and many expected 2023 launch back then. I am sure that even you if were asked back in 2020 would say the same, pretty much no one could predicted Nintendo would wait till 2025 for a successor. I claimed it won't surprise me because those 2 things weren't expected to happen, yes. There were new developments, and changes to the situation. That's why I say it wouldn't surprise me, not because the people who said in 2022 it will reach 160M, are right, since in the end, they may end right, but it would be not because of their expert opinion, but because of things that most didn't expect would happen. The baseline prices in the industry to get higher, and the Switch getting delayd from original expected (by many, earlier in it's life) release year of 2023, to 2024 (for the last 2 years), and now 2025. There are new reasons that supports their otherwise wrong prediction (since Switch is now at 140, and if the 2023 or 2024 launch happened, the chances would be ever lower for it reaching 160M) and because of that, their prediction may end right. Do you get what is my point ? It's not about right or wrong, it's about some people does not have enough of a data to be so sure about higher than the normal number so they can support their prediction when they made it originally. Yes there are reasons now, however the chances of these things happening very low, since when in a previous generations this happened ? delay of 2 years than it should be (judging by other normal generations) and the baseline for consoles going from 300$-400$ (being that for decades) to something like 400-600$ now ? In other words, all of people predicting 150-160 or beyond may end right just because of some things happening, with a chance to happen close to zero back when they wrote it. I am even sure that if there was a time machine, and you could go back 2-3 years and asked them if those 2 things will happened and because of this Switch can helped it self to reach the 160M, many of them would tell you no, and that those 2 things won't happened.

That's why I say I look realistic at the things, not optimistic or pessimistic. The normal scenario which would happen, and is often happening with generations, and even if you were to ask many people 2-3-4 years ago and they would be on the same opinion is this: launching a successor in 2023, or early 2024 at the latest (since every generation is around 6-7 years, and Nintendo especially have a history of launching it even sooner than the 7th year, let alone 8 years), alongside with that the other normal thing to happen, and many would voted too would be dropping the prices of PS and XBOX to 400$ and budget models to 300$ by now, (which would surely got some of the sales on the Switch, since bigger choice of budget consoles) and launching the Switch 2 (in the 2023 or early 2024) for 300 to 400$, which would greatly decrease sales for the Switch 1, which would start to decline even from the announce let alone the release of the new console, and by now, and 2025, Switch would be on it's last legs. And it wouldn't reach 150M or 160M in this otherwise usual development of the generation.

So yes, I may be end wrong with my original prediction of Switch not reaching 155 or 160M but given the circumstances, factors and variables I had back then you can't say that I've downplay, or low balling the Switch. (Mind you big portion of the people back then also didn't expected 150 or 160M because of the reasons I just wrote. So are they downplaying and low balling too ? ).

I never brought the handheld market thing because I never though about it, and now when @javi741 said it's mind blowing, I did, since it's true. The handheld console market was in fact bigger once before, therefore it's not mind blowing that is reaching 170M now. It's still good of course, very good, because the smartphones have taken some of the pie as well over the years. But mind blowing for me is something that hasn't been done before. And this has. In the handheld console market. As I said, for a single system, it's mind blowing. That's why I said it depends from which point you look it at.

Phenomajp13 said:

Also maybe this will help strengthen your point. The Switch as a platform has around 240 million potential handheld console consumers and 270 million potential home console consumers leading to a massive amount of potential consumers that helped it reach a level that the other consoles just can't match. Doesn't that sound better than what your initial posts sounded like such as Switch is a handheld and Nintendo waited a long time to release its successor. You are allowed to say these things, just like I'm allowed to debate them.

You get this wrong. I've never said that because the handheld console market had once reached 240M, that this means the Switch has 240M potential consumers. I've simply said it's not mind blowing since the handheld console market has been bigger than it is now. This does not mean that Switch now has 240M potential buyers. 270M also it's not accurate for home console consumers, since big portion of the Wii consumers weren't gamers. They bought it to play casual games like Wii sports (80M+ in sales proves it). Those are not the same people who buys Xbox, playstation or Switch (for home use).

I'll put direct answer to your claim. The Switch as a platform would reach high number of sales through out it's life, no doubt about that, because it's great system, has great marketing, how probably the best library in Nintendo's history of consoles and handhelds, it's innovative and combines handheld and home console gaming in one place, and it's selling at a good price, giving you a budget friendly option like the Lite, and a premium one like the OLED. However reasons like the lack of direct handheld console competition, way higher prices and offers from the other players in the gaming industry (Sony and Microsoft) for the second part of it's life (and the lack of price cuts), prolonging it's life to it's 8th year, instead of it's 6th, 6th and a half, or 7th year (as it is traditional with Nintendo and all other console manufacturers), and very big chances of launching it's successor at price that won't compete with it's 200$ to 300$ price range (which is usually the thing Nintendo does, launching the new console at not that more expensive price than it's last gen console) are all reasons that are greatly helping and will continue to help the Switch reaching 150M, 155M, and possibly 160M as well. Without those reasons, it would still be very successful and well sold, however it wouldn't be reaching numbers into 150 and possibly 160M by the end of it's life. It could end at 120M, 130M or 140M (depending on what and how would happen).

Also don't send me message, this is all about the Switch, we are in the right thread. There is no need for private message, let everyone see what you have to say about that. (personal messages also had limit of writing, so here is the best place). You can't send me messages too, since the settings in my profile are that I can receive those only from friends. So you either answer me here in front of all, or doesn't. I removed you, because, the last time we debated, I've accidentally clicked on friend request on the drop down menu near your profile picture, and there wasn't option to cancel the request. You accepted it, and after I got the notification about that some days later, I removed you. I've never had the intention to add you to my friends list. Also if you were to enjoy it you wouldn't be in a hurry to stop it, and say it's your last post, after only a few posts of debating, you would want to continue, you would do big posts like mine or even bigger, and continue. It seems your energy for writing and debating is running out. Mine as you see is just starting, I just made the biggest post I've made to this moment. And I can continue much more. So in future, if you want to criticize me again, you will have to pay the price of reading books over here and answer them days on end heading into weeks. Think smart if this is what you want, and if that is in your interest. Cuz my energy is infinite about that. If you can't answer on that in debates, then you will have to let my posts about the Switch run free (call it downplaying or lowballing, or whatever you want). That's it.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 27 September 2024