| XtremeBG said: 1) You are targetting me for a debate, since whenever I make post about explaining whatever about Switch, you start to quote and debate me. You are putting words in my mouth since I've never ever said that Switch has a market of 240M users for itself. I simply made a comparison and a point, that the handheld market has seen better days in terms of hardware units sold, That's it. And because of that it's not mind blowing handheld console market to reach 170M. 2) The relevance I started posting 2019 is answer to this sentence of yours:
3) I've written about reasons, advantages and disadvantages, alongside predictions, since 2019, not since the Switch is getting too close to the 150 or 160M. And also no, they are not here because of the 2022 hack deleted all my previous posts alongside many other posts of other users as well. And yes, before I didn't expect it to reach close to PS2, since it was way far away, and there were so many variables and reasons it could gone wrong. As there is with many other consoles, as well. Many people back then didn't believe too. In fact there were small number of people who back in 2019 or 2020 believed the Switch will actually get so high, and that is because it's normal for a console generation to continue around 6 to 7 years, and many expected 2023 launch back then. I am sure that even you if were asked back in 2020 would say the same, pretty much no one could predicted Nintendo would wait till 2025 for a successor. I claimed it won't surprise me because those 2 things weren't expected to happen, yes. There were new developments, and changes to the situation. That's why I say it wouldn't surprise me, not because the people who said in 2022 it will reach 160M, are right, since in the end, they may end right, but it would be not because of their expert opinion, but because of things that most didn't expect would happen. The baseline prices in the industry to get higher, and the Switch getting delayd from original expected (by many, earlier in it's life) release year of 2023, to 2024 (for the last 2 years), and now 2025. There are new reasons that supports their otherwise wrong prediction (since Switch is now at 140, and if the 2023 or 2024 launch happened, the chances would be ever lower for it reaching 160M) and because of that, their prediction may end right. Do you get what is my point ? It's not about right or wrong, it's about some people does not have enough of a data to be so sure about higher than the normal number so they can support their prediction when they made it originally. Yes there are reasons now, however the chances of these things happening very low, since when in a previous generations this happened ? delay of 2 years than it should be (judging by other normal generations) and the baseline for consoles going from 300$-400$ (being that for decades) to something like 400-600$ now ? In other words, all of people predicting 150-160 or beyond may end right just because of some things happening, with a chance to happen close to zero back when they wrote it. I am even sure that if there was a time machine, and you could go back 2-3 years and asked them if those 2 things will happened and because of this Switch can helped it self to reach the 160M, many of them would tell you no, and that those 2 things won't happened. That's why I say I look realistic at the things, not optimistic or pessimistic. The normal scenario which would happen, and is often happening with generations, and even if you were to ask many people 2-3-4 years ago and they would be on the same opinion is this: launching a successor in 2023, or early 2024 at the latest (since every generation is around 6-7 years, and Nintendo especially have a history of launching it even sooner than the 7th year, let alone 8 years), alongside with that the other normal thing to happen, and many would voted too would be dropping the prices of PS and XBOX to 400$ and budget models to 300$ by now, (which would surely got some of the sales on the Switch, since bigger choice of budget consoles) and launching the Switch 2 (in the 2023 or early 2024) for 300 to 400$, which would greatly decrease sales for the Switch 1, which would start to decline even from the announce let alone the release of the new console, and by now, and 2025, Switch would be on it's last legs. And it wouldn't reach 150M or 160M in this otherwise usual development of the generation. So yes, I may be end wrong with my original prediction of Switch not reaching 155 or 160M but given the circumstances, factors and variables I had back then you can't say that I've downplay, or low balling the Switch. (Mind you big portion of the people back then also didn't expected 150 or 160M because of the reasons I just wrote. So are they downplaying and low balling too ? ). 4) I never brought the handheld market thing because I never though about it, and now when @javi741 said it's mind blowing, I did, since it's true. The handheld console market was in fact bigger once before, therefore it's not mind blowing that is reaching 170M now. It's still good of course, very good, because the smartphones have taken some of the pie as well over the years. But mind blowing for me is something that hasn't been done before. And this has. In the handheld console market. As I said, for a single system, it's mind blowing. That's why I said it depends from which point you look it at.
5) You get this wrong. I've never said that because the handheld console market had once reached 240M, that this means the Switch has 240M potential consumers. I've simply said it's not mind blowing since the handheld console market has been bigger than it is now. This does not mean that Switch now has 240M potential buyers. 270M also it's not accurate for home console consumers, since big portion of the Wii consumers weren't gamers. They bought it to play casual games like Wii sports (80M+ in sales proves it). Those are not the same people who buys Xbox, playstation or Switch (for home use). 6) I'll put direct answer to your claim. The Switch as a platform would reach high number of sales through out it's life, no doubt about that, because it's great system, has great marketing, how probably the best library in Nintendo's history of consoles and handhelds, it's innovative and combines handheld and home console gaming in one place, and it's selling at a good price, giving you a budget friendly option like the Lite, and a premium one like the OLED. However reasons like the lack of direct handheld console competition, way higher prices and offers from the other players in the gaming industry (Sony and Microsoft) for the second part of it's life (and the lack of price cuts), prolonging it's life to it's 8th year, instead of it's 6th, 6th and a half, or 7th year (as it is traditional with Nintendo and all other console manufacturers), and very big chances of launching it's successor at price that won't compete with it's 200$ to 300$ price range (which is usually the thing Nintendo does, launching the new console at not that more expensive price than it's last gen console) are all reasons that are greatly helping and will continue to help the Switch reaching 150M, 155M, and possibly 160M as well. Without those reasons, it would still be very successful and well sold, however it wouldn't be reaching numbers into 150 and possibly 160M by the end of it's life. It could end at 120M, 130M or 140M (depending on what and how would happen). Also don't send me message, this is all about the Switch, we are in the right thread. There is no need for private message, let everyone see what you have to say about that. (personal messages also had limit of writing, so here is the best place). I removed you, because, the last time we debated, I've accidentally clicked on friend request on the drop down menu near your profile picture, and there wasn't option to cancel the request. You accepted it, and after I got the notification about that some days later, I removed you. I've never had the intention to add you to my friends list. Also if you were to enjoy it you wouldn't be in a hurry to stop it, and say it's your last post, after only a few posts of debating, you would want to continue, you would do big posts like mine or even bigger, and continue. It seems your energy for writing and debating is running out. Mine as you see is just starting, I just made the biggest post I've made to this moment. And I can continue much more. So in future, if you want to criticize me again, you will have to pay the price of reading books over here and answer them days on end heading into weeks. Think smart if this is what you want, and if that is in your interest. Cuz my energy is infinite about that. If you can't answer on that in debates, then you will have to let my posts about the Switch (call it downplaying or lowballing, or whatever you want) run free. That's it. |
Since you want the battle here, ill entertain you. This is why I like you, I love the energy. I have it too and now its time to dismantle your logic. Just to be clear my aggression towards you isn't because of your lowball predictions but because of your intentions. Your intent seems to be downplay at all cost and honestly I almost began to believe you and maybe I was wrong but you couldn't help to reveal your true colors again but ill touch on that soon.
1) I am not targeting just because I am debating you. I didn't put words in your mouth, that was your obvious attempt to downplay. The 240 million has no relevance at all because its just a made up figure you pulled from your butt to downplay Switch and paint the picture it has an unfair advantage to sell to people that PS and Xbox can't reach. Which is their problem but your hate towards the platform has you using that nonsense figure to downplay. Which again, if you knew this advantage existed why would you predict the Switch to not exceed the 160 million this thread is about? That doesn't line up, you knew the 7th gen had all that potential right? Did you expect the Switch to fail to reach them? Its almost like this is something you only acknowledge now because you have had to consistently adjust your prediction up.
2) I seriously don't follow you on this, what does that sentence have to do when you started posting? That sentence is literally me saying you didn't acknowledge this massive handheld userbase until NOW, which is convenient since now is when you are beginning to realize it's very likely to happen. So its your way of coping/downplaying. You knew the Switch had this advantage but you never mentioned it until now you realize you will be wrong.
3) I first need to start off by pointing out Rol, the creator of this thread stated his expectations were for the Switch successor to not show up until 2025 lol, so no you dont get to claim you are a victim because Nintendo didn't do what you expected. You just weren't smart enough to see this. Maybe next time you will not assume things based off of made up rules like a successor has to show up in 6 or 7 years because both the Xbox 360 and Game Boy would like a word with you. So no I don't care about your excuses, the unexpected comes with the territory. You should have the common sense to know if things don't go the way you think they will (you don't work for the company so this could always happen) then there is a big possibility I am way off. I would also like to point out that your predictions don't have to have caps, you could just say I can see it selling 120 million + (my PS5 prediction) but instead you would rather put a cap on Switch because you don't want it to surpass the PS2. So no you are not a victim of a delay lol, the platform hasn't even been announced and you talking about a damn delay. How can you delay something that was never announced? That's how bad you want to be a victim lol.
As for myself, if you asked me in 2020 lol about a Switch successor in 2023, I would have told you no because I just witnessed the Switch post a 30 million year and wouldn't have enough time to decline to low enough figures to justify a successor so quickly. Nintendo would be making the same mistake they made with DS and 3DS transition. I have always been on team holiday 2024 but I was worried about Zelda ToTK being used in a cross gen release. In late 2022, it was announced to be a May 2023 release and that was the final nail in that coffin for a 2023 release at all according to me. My personal way of making these predictions is different from yours though, I judge based on the trajectory, not the successor. Of course the successor makes a difference but I think the biggest difference is the platforms trajectory. The Switch peaked at about 30 million, it always had a shot as long as Nintendo doesn't kill it prematurely. No, im not talking about a successor killing it, im talking about Nintendo ending its support.
As for what others expected, same thing to them I said to you. It does not matter! That's the issue with people's predictions to begin with, some of you have a figure in mind already and then set the trajectory from there. We do a poor job of expecting the unexpected and on top of that we put a cap/maximum. This isn't about poor predictions though, I expected the successor in holiday 2024 and was wrong. This is about your behavior (downplay) after the wrong predictions.
4) It's interesting that you continue to put the Switch solely in the handheld market, what's your definition of the home console market?
5) Now the fun part, where your true colors shine the brightest lol. This is downplay, you didn't just say the 240 million was the size of the handheld market at its peak, you also stated how the handheld market at its peak was bigger than the PS and Xbox market combined while conveniently leaving out Wii for your nonsense but not doing the same to DS. That's the downplay, you deliberately left out the massive strinkage in the 8th gen also which is weird because does it not prove the DS was also massively boosted by casual gamers? Or since that didn't fit the agenda, you have no issue with being disengious about the handheld market but don't do the same to the home console market? Also lol at the 80+ million that purchased Wii Sports is proof of how many casuals brought the system like it also wasn't a mass bundled game. Why not use Wii Sports Resort as proof that only 30 million casuals bought it? This is the disengious stuff I call out about you. You try so hard to act like you are this non bias poster when its clear as day. All im saying is that we don't know how many casuals (not sure why this even matters, they are consumers) bought a Wii or DS but for your agenda you made sure to discount all of the Wii consumers but count all of the DS consumers. The people that primarily played for Wii Sports and Wii fit should be treated the same as the people that played for Nintendogs and Brain Training because they both failed to show up for the successors. I mean honestly whats your proof that the Wii Sports and Wii Fit consumers are still absent considering Nintendo Switch Sports and Ring Fit Adventures did quite well, while Nintendogs hasn't shown up again and Brain Training I believe released on Switch and sold far worse than Nintendo Switch Sports and Ring Fit Adventures, yet we want to call out Wii consumers?
6) Nothing more than excuses, next time expect the unexpected and stop being so focused on the past. This is especially dumb when you realize the pandemic should have obviously had a bigger influence on decisions today than what these companies did in the past. Nintendo releasing a successor in 2023 was dumb when you consider the prior year had the console selling around peak Playstation figures and Sony/MS were struggling with supply lol. Why would none of that be taken into account on when Nintendo should show up with a successor?
Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 27 September 2024
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