The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

@Phenomajp13 

1) The 240M isn't pulled from my butt, It is a fact. Handheld console market in the 7th gen has reached the highs of almost 240M. So this sentence alone has to be you downplaying as well. (using your words). I also have no hate whatsoever for Switch. I don't have reasons to hate some gaming system. Are you serious ? Especially system full of games, for which I admire Nintendo, this is how it's done. Opposite to Sony and Microsoft, which are very very weak with their latest consoles, when it comes to games. I my self am very disappointed by this. I even don't know how PS5 is selling so well worldwide with the lack of games compare to previous PS consoles it has. Also this point of view that the handheld market had 240M was is in no way connected to paint some picture for the Switch, if I wanted that I could just say it before or as separate post, not answering to someone's post and the word "mind blowing". And trust me, Switch selling is not a problem for the other consoles. And to quote " sell to people " ? Are we in a game store or what ? So you are telling me I am telling some things and people are buying it ? Are you saying that people change their minds, over some opinions over the web ? Ridiculous. Go rest, you need it, honestly. Why I haven't predicted 160M for the Switch before if I knew this ? It's simple, I know the Switch is a single console, I see it's 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, 4th year, I see it has normal lifecycle, with normal selling units every year just like every other console (very strong peak period, but I mean usual numbers, that have been done before, like 20-30M not like 50M per year) And since I see it has a normal console lifecycle and nothing out of the earth such as 50M per year, I know it's lifecycle will be in the normal borders around 6-7 years (it turns out it will be 8th years as a major console) but still in the normal borders, not like 12 or 15 years for example. Because of this I know that since only 1 console have reached the range around 160M (PS2) and one more (the DS) reached 154 in the course of 8 years, and there are many many other consoles, the chances of reaching the same numbers or even beat them is small and it needs for all factors, variables and things that depends on Nintendo themselves to happen and to line perfectly(talking about from few years ago point). And since the chances for this when you look the console from it's first half of the life are small, and you are still far away to be able to predict more precisely, I decided it won't. Again with the information I had when I made those predictions. Just like now people are telling mostly 100-120M for PS5, and it may end up short of that or even bigger than that, just like every other prediction can be wrong when it's made far from the end. The 7th gen had the potential but with the smartphone market and Switch being a single system, with tradition lifecycle, I don't expect it to reach 240M. With having no direct handheld competition I would expect it to reach numbers less than that, I just explain it to you in my previous post why it will. I haven't constantly adjusted my prediction up. It was adjusted up once, to 150-155M range, and adjusted second time recently. The one time was because of the delay, the second time because of the price thing I already explained to you.

2) Me posting since 2019 is the answer to you telling me I started to post about some of the reasons that helped Switch and it's final number when it's very close to the 150-160M. I am telling you that I haven't started now, I have posts for the Switch, predictions and opinions not since Switch is closing on 150 or 160 but as far as it was in the 40ties. That is my point.

3) I haven't said that there are no people predicting 2025, I said that the vast majority of people didn't expect and predict launch so late as 2025. There were polls even go take a look if you want, pretty much all of the votes were for 2023 and early 2024 back then not 2025. Also I am not a victim, this is simply projections predictions, on a gaming forum, for systems of our hobby - gaming. We can't be victims, losers, winners, or whatever. The one person sees the things in one direction, the other person sees them in other direction. That's it. I am not smart enough to see 2025 releasing of Switch 2 back in 2020 or 2021 ? So maybe almost all of the people who are here are not smart because they haven't seen it as well... very smart from you, congrats.

3.1) Xbox 360 and Game boy ? Did you really read my previous comment carefully ? word by word ? have I said that no console had such thing ? does the word "traditionally" or "usual" mean anything to you ? And why you continue to put it as I am so bad about thinking this way, when almost all of here back then posted the same opinions about the matter, expecting traditional lifecycle with every single factor I wrote in the previous post ?

3.2) Of course I don't work, and this can happened, no one has denied that. And I always know everything is possible. I simply didn't believe this will happen because the chances were small, since many other times Nintendo stick to the traditional way, and therefore when people makes a prediction he has to say the thing that is most likely to happen according to him, And I did. My prediction was simply the most likely way the things are gonna go according to me.

3.3) I also don't have desires, so passing the PS2 or not, is no difference for me. I am looking it as a number, not as a console passing. Also I like to work with ranges not + or - . And I always give ranges, so no caps. It seems you haven't understand me correctly again. Of course the console is not announced, and can't be delayed going by the word itself. I am simply telling you, that I myself just like many others (saying it again cuz I want you to see that this is not downplaying or low balling or anything to do with hatred, since it's not only me who expected this but almost anyone back few years ago) expected launch of 2023 or 2024 at max. And the word delay is used unofficially by many sites this included, when the reports and rumors came out for the system earlier in the year that it may launch in 2025. So why don't go tell all the media to not use that word since it's not announced officially ?

3.4) Do you see ? even you were in team 2024, just like most of the people, so not 2025. So you expected 160M with launch right now ? It seems you are way optimistic. I also look about the trajectory, this is the primary thing. I agree with you on that. However for me the successor's launching and announcing is also important thing. For example Sony did big mistake by announcing PS5 way too early in late 2018 or early 2019 I think. This was stupid. Nintendo, when I look their history They had many times where the system didn't started to decline too much and they rushed to announce and release successor, this is also the reason I didn't put 2025 as an viable option for Switch 2, back in 2020 for example. I am not even sure if Nintendo has had case where it released something 5 full years after the peak year of a system (maybe game boy ?). In other words you can't call this downplaying, low balling, hating or something like that. This is just normal opinion. This have been written here by many before, I doubt every of those people are down players or haters. My behave is not downplaying, it's simply putting the reasons that helped Switch get there or ahead. Those are a facts they are not lies. Downplaying would be to say for example that Switch is selling only just because there are no other handhelds or just because it's the cheaper console. I've always credit and appreciate the Switch for what it is, and have always acknowledged it's strong sides.

4) Not all of the Switch owners bought it to use it as a handheld, but all of the people that wanted handheld bought the Switch. My definition of the home console market, is that there are three players there, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. Switch has portion of that home console market as well. Being in the two markets is now a mind blowing thing, for the Switch. I like it.

5) I already touched on that Wii question of yours, but it seems you haven't got it right again. Casual or no casual players all of this are consumers yes, and they are not discredited. I am not simply saying that 80M+ are casuals. (the number is just random, of course we can't know how much of them are hardcore console players, but it doesn't matter really I will explain about that now) My point is that big portion of the Wii users were people who are not gamers, such as grandpas grandmas or father and mothers, that didn't know games or consoles, that are gamers at all. I am not saying here how much of those were hardcore, casuals or not gamers at all, I am saying to you that the number can't be 270M exactly representing the home console gamers since Wii is not taken as a console picked fully by gamers. It exploded mostly of it's gimmick. It was the thing that was used in the ads even, this is how Nintendo were marketing it. DS had casual gamers as well, Switch has too. But if you want to play on handheld you are not grandpa and grandma or person that doesn't touched games. You the kid that is growing gamer you are the casual or the hardcore gamer. You can be the home console gamer even if you want.

5.1) I didn't picked 8th gen handhelds cuz the example I originally gave was reply to @javi741 again. And the word mind blowing. Of course there have been weaker generations. But the mind blowing word is used for strong things, or in our topic, high sales. Therefore to make the point I needed to give the highest point. And since there have been highest point than what the handheld console market is now, the point we are now isn't so mind blowing. That's all. Why would I want to give example with way lower number, when trying to prove handheld console market is not mind blowing now ? Also counting DS and not Wii does not have correlation since the example I gave with the home consoles was answer to him again since he put the PS+XBOX number, not PS+XBOX+Wii/Wii U. DS I counted since it was the highers point in the handheld console market from a previous gen.

6) It's not excuses for the purpose of it, but to prove I haven't and wasn't low balling or downplaying. Yes I end up wrong about 2023 or 2024 holiday but it wasn't because I wanted the launch to be then because to not be able to reach the PS2. That's the point I am making when I explain you reasons why I was wrong about the launch or not expecting the price thing. Because you always tell that everything I say I say because I want the Switch to fail. And I just explained the reasoning of why I predicted those things, it wasn't because I wanted the PS2 to win. I always expect the unexpected, simply when you are doing prediction you have to do it with the most likely things to happen according to you. And according to my most likely things to happen I did. And I can't ignore the history. It's what bring us to the now. And if it isn't for the history and the now, there won't be future too. Also all of this I spoke about was back in 2020, 2021. Back then no one could not know how would the pandemic develop and continue, what will happened, it was chaos with many many things for the normal life let alone the technologies, if you remember. Nintendo releasing console in 2023 was dump after you saw the prior year yes. I said expecting 2023 or 2024 launch, not in the same 2023 year, but a few years ago, 2019, 2020, or 2024 launch by 2021. At that point you can't know numbers for 2 years ahead. Struggling supply I personally expected to be finished by end of 2021, but it ended in early 2023. That's why. Again this is not only me, so when you put me label, you put it on other people here as well.

7) Nice post, this time, way better than the last couple posts you did. This post I liked. You didn't agree with me on some points, but at least you didn't attack personally so much and just go over the points, the way you should do every time. Instead every time you do half on the points, half on trying to personally attack and put labels. That's not how it's done. This post of yours is how is done (although it can be perfected a little more, it was way better than the previous ones).

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 28 September 2024