There are people that still doubt that the Switch will manage to outsell the PS2, though. I guess the 170M discusssion will become more common only when the Switch definitely be at the edge of beating the PS2

Switch is in the same generation as the PS5 and Xbox Series which makes the proposed 50% goal much easier to accomplish, given how the Xbox Series is faring. The Wii U was the PS4's and Xbox One's counterpart.

175?! Dude where are you coming up with this? haha. Switch will probably be selling like 20k units a week globally by the time it hits 155m. Very much doubt it will hit 160m, 170-175m is not in the realm of possibility, unless they were to drop Switch price to like $100/$200/$250 and market it during next gen as an impulse buy. And pretty dang sure Nintendo isn't going to do that.

It will probably reach 155 million before Switch 2 is on the market. Passing PS2 is 99% certain now. 160-162 million is the most likely, but I really doubt 170 million. Probably the highest it can go.

A couple of factors:

- When Switch 2 arrives (worst-case is February 2025, best-case is November 2025)
- How supply constrained the Switch 2 is, especially around Holiday 2025
- How long they keep it on the market in 2026-2028

- Price of Switch 2 may be higher than estimated
- Cross-gen platform releases in the first years of Switch 2

You always seem to underestimate Switch sales. Back in 2020 you said there was a 0% chance Switch reaches 150M which the Switch proved wrong. There were also various other times you took the extremely lower pessimistic end when it came to Switch sales. 

Saying 160M is unlikely is unreasonable. By Decemeber 2024 the Switch should be at 150M sold. Even if Switch 2 launches lets say May 2025 its unlikely Switch will die automaticall and stop receiving games, 2025 the Switch should still sell around 5M units for the year putting it at 155M by December 2025. After that it'll be able to crawl itself to 160M even if it falls off a cliff after 2025.

With how much the Switch has proven you and most of us wrong all generation in sales, you shouldn't still be this pessimistic when it comes to your sales outlook and never leave anything off the table. I think 170M is unlikely right now but I'm not discounting it either considering how much the Switch has proved everyone wrong time and time again, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of strong post-successor sales similar to the 3DS Post-Switch which could make Switch reach 170M.

With NSW2 reveal imminent, I’m adjusting my projection: ~156mil LTD. Unless Nintendo chooses to market NSW as the cheap alternative to NSW2, I would be shocked if >12mil units are moved post-successor’s reveal.

Quarterly Figures: 2.6mil (Q2F25), 4mil (Q3F25), 1.25mil (Q4F25), 1mil (Q1F26), 0.5mil (Q2F26), 1.5mil (Q1F26), 1.75mil (remainder of life).

These figures reflect trends seen with “PS4 -> PS5”, “XBone -> XBSX”, and many previous PS and XB systems, while remaining generous noting the porbable “economical benefits” of NSW over NSW2 (i.e. NSW will be significantly less expensive than NSW2). I do not believe NSW will experience a similar situation to “3DS -> NSW” since Nintendo was still fully invested in the console-handheld setup up until mid-2018, at which point 3DS would begin fading into the background before discontinuing in 2019. Nintendo will not be too keen on supporting NSW to the point of releasing NSW exclusives (especially if NSW2 is BC), nor is it likely there is strong interest at Nintendo in supporting a system which’ll hinder with future profits (NSW2 is the future, and unless they are fully committed, they will not see nearly the same level of long-term success as NSW).

Well, the current trend says that the Switch won't reach 170M but we never know what decision Nintendo can make. That's what I got from Javi's post. Personally, I don't even think it's guaranteed the Switch will cross the 160M mark and I also don't think it will reach 150M by the end of December without a price cut. 147~148M is my guess. I think it will outsell the DS by September 2025 and end up in a gray area where we won't know if it passed the PS2 due to PS2's numbers being imprecise. But I do wish for the Switch to cross the 160M mark, though

Yeah 160 million is still a question mark for me too.

Despite their aggressive forecast, they don't seem to be doing much to actually achieve it; I can't see them cutting the price given the economic circumstances, none of their remaining games are the sort of thing that will sell a lot of systems this late in the cycle, they're even being conservative with bundles.

Outselling the PS2 definitively will take more than they're currently doing.

It will certainly be a big success for the Switch, no doubt, however, when you think it's not so mind blowing since it's simply the handheld market selling more than a home console market. Yes Switch is hybrid, but most of the people use it and sees it primary as a handheld device. And for example 7th gen handhelds had sales of close to 240M combined (DS + PSP). So whatever Switch numbers finish, it simply means that the handheld market is around the number of the Switch, or very close to it (if you remove some units for the people that may use and got it to primary play it as a home console). So when you look it generally the handheld market is drastically smaller than what it was back in the 7th gen. It is simply meaning this. And because when you leave a console for longer than normal on the market as your major product, it will sell more consoles (of course it needs to be somewhat successful too). Like if you left the PS2 to be SONY major console with no competition for 8 years (no PS3, no 360) it would sell more for these 2 years, than actually was, and therefore it would reach even higher number. Same goes for PS4, DS, Gameboy if you want, PS1 too. It's not something new, the handheld market to be bigger than the hardcore home consoles. In the 7th gen handhelds sold almost 240M and the HD twins sold 173M. So even though the handheld market is not as big as it was back then, it is still powerful. Other thing is the inflation and the higher than normal prices for the new SKUs of the other consoles, and therefore the chances that Nintendo will launch Switch 2 for let's say 500$ instead of 400$ or 450$ instead of 350$ are bigger now. This will also greatly help the Switch sales in it's later years.

Dude, Switch consistently sells 50K+ a week in Japan alone.  It's not going to plummet to 20K per week globally in about a year.  I've been reading crap predictions like this for the past 7 years and it never ceases to amaze me that people still say this stuff.