The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[javi741]

Slownenberg said:

javi741 said:

Tbh we might be getting to that point to where the Switch outselling the PS2 might not even be the most interesting debate/discussion anymore with how the Switch is looking more and more likely to outsell the PS2.

The bigger discussion would be whether or not the Switch could somehow exceed 170M and outsell the combined total of Xbox One+PS4 sales which is at around 175M. Which would be mind-blowing if the Switch could outsell an entire generation in this day and age where every console is competitive in sales.

The PS2 did outsell it's entire generation pretty easily, but the competition was much weaker then than it is now. PS4 & Xbox One sales wise were considered successful systems and to outsell both combined is crazy.

If the Switch were to reach 170M in sales, that would mean the Switch would own 50% of the entire global video game console market, which would be considered a monopoly at that point by definition.

For me right now reaching 170M seems a bit too ambitious, bit if Nintendo keeps supporting the Switch longer then we'd expect and has post-Switch 3DS sales numbers in it's final year's, it could be possible.

175?! Dude where are you coming up with this? haha. Switch will probably be selling like 20k units a week globally by the time it hits 155m. Very much doubt it will hit 160m, 170-175m is not in the realm of possibility, unless they were to drop Switch price to like $100/$200/$250 and market it during next gen as an impulse buy. And pretty dang sure Nintendo isn't going to do that.

You always seem to underestimate Switch sales. Back in 2020 you said there was a 0% chance Switch reaches 150M which the Switch proved wrong. There were also various other times you took the extremely lower pessimistic end when it came to Switch sales. 

Saying 160M is unlikely is unreasonable. By Decemeber 2024 the Switch should be at 150M sold. Even if Switch 2 launches lets say May 2025 its unlikely Switch will die automaticall and stop receiving games, 2025 the Switch should still sell around 5M units for the year putting it at 155M by December 2025. After that it'll be able to crawl itself to 160M even if it falls off a cliff after 2025.

With how much the Switch has proven you and most of us wrong all generation in sales, you shouldn't still be this pessimistic when it comes to your sales outlook and never leave anything off the table. I think 170M is unlikely right now but I'm not discounting it either considering how much the Switch has proved everyone wrong time and time again, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of strong post-successor sales similar to the 3DS Post-Switch which could make Switch reach 170M.