kilik on 23 September 2024
It will probably reach 155 million before Switch 2 is on the market. Passing PS2 is 99% certain now. 160-162 million is the most likely, but I really doubt 170 million. Probably the highest it can go.
A couple of factors:
- When Switch 2 arrives (worst-case is February 2025, best-case is November 2025)
- How supply constrained the Switch 2 is, especially around Holiday 2025
- How long they keep it on the market in 2026-2028
- Price of Switch 2 may be higher than estimated
- Cross-gen platform releases in the first years of Switch 2
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