The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

javi741 said:

The bigger discussion would be whether or not the Switch could somehow exceed 170M and outsell the combined total of Xbox One+PS4 sales which is at around 175M. Which would be mind-blowing if the Switch could outsell an entire generation in this day and age where every console is competitive in sales.

The PS2 did outsell it's entire generation pretty easily, but the competition was much weaker then than it is now. PS4 & Xbox One sales wise were considered successful systems and to outsell both combined is crazy.

If the Switch were to reach 170M in sales, that would mean the Switch would own 50% of the entire global video game console market, which would be considered a monopoly at that point by definition.

For me right now reaching 170M seems a bit too ambitious, bit if Nintendo keeps supporting the Switch longer then we'd expect and has post-Switch 3DS sales numbers in it's final year's, it could be possible.

It will certainly be a big success for the Switch, no doubt, however, when you think it's not so mind blowing since it's simply the handheld market selling more than a home console market. Yes Switch is hybrid, but most of the people use it and sees it primary as a handheld device. And for example 7th gen handhelds had sales of close to 240M combined (DS + PSP). So whatever Switch numbers finish, it simply means that the handheld market is around the number of the Switch, or very close to it (if you remove some units for the people that may use and got it to primary play it as a home console). So when you look it generally the handheld market is drastically smaller than what it was back in the 7th gen. It is simply meaning this. And because when you leave a console for longer than normal on the market as your major product, it will sell more consoles (of course it needs to be somewhat successful too). Like if you left the PS2 to be SONY major console with no competition for 8 years (no PS3, no 360) it would sell more for these 2 years, than actually was, and therefore it would reach even higher number. Same goes for PS4, DS, Gameboy if you want, PS1 too. It's not something new, the handheld market to be bigger than the hardcore home consoles. In the 7th gen handhelds sold almost 240M and the HD twins sold 173M. So even though the handheld market is not as big as it was back then, it is still powerful. Other thing is the inflation and the higher than normal prices for the new SKUs of the other consoles, and therefore the chances that Nintendo will launch Switch 2 for let's say 500$ instead of 400$ or 450$ instead of 350$ are bigger now. This will also greatly help the Switch sales in it's later years.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 23 September 2024