With NSW2 reveal imminent, I’m adjusting my projection: ~156mil LTD. Unless Nintendo chooses to market NSW as the cheap alternative to NSW2, I would be shocked if >12mil units are moved post-successor’s reveal.
Quarterly Figures: 2.6mil (Q2F25), 4mil (Q3F25), 1.25mil (Q4F25), 1mil (Q1F26), 0.5mil (Q2F26), 1.5mil (Q1F26), 1.75mil (remainder of life).
These figures reflect trends seen with “PS4 -> PS5”, “XBone -> XBSX”, and many previous PS and XB systems, while remaining generous noting the porbable “economical benefits” of NSW over NSW2 (i.e. NSW will be significantly less expensive than NSW2). I do not believe NSW will experience a similar situation to “3DS -> NSW” since Nintendo was still fully invested in the console-handheld setup up until mid-2018, at which point 3DS would begin fading into the background before discontinuing in 2019. Nintendo will not be too keen on supporting NSW to the point of releasing NSW exclusives (especially if NSW2 is BC), nor is it likely there is strong interest at Nintendo in supporting a system which’ll hinder with future profits (NSW2 is the future, and unless they are fully committed, they will not see nearly the same level of long-term success as NSW).
Last edited by firebush03 - on 23 September 2024
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