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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

XtremeBG said:
CourageTCD said:

I see. I really would like to see a comparison between the forecast numbers for DS shipments for every year after the 3DS release and the actual shipments the DS managed to pull out

FY 2011 (April 2010 - March 2011): Forecast - 23.5M, result - 17.5M

FY 2012 (April 2011 - March 2012): Forecast - 9M, result - 5.1M

FY 2013 (April 2012 - March 2013): Forecast - 2.5M, result - 2.35M

FY 2014 (April 2013 - March 2014): Forecast - 200k, result - 130k

Based on different time frame release and phased rollout of DS  against a global simultaneous launch for NS. 

Does FY13 corresponds to FY26 for NS1 or the one that just completed? 

Last edited by tak13 - on 23 April 2026

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tak13 said:

Based on different time frame release and phased rollout of DS  against a global simultaneous launch for NS. 

Does FY13 corresponds to FY26 for NS1 or the one that just completed? 

Yea, expect next FY to be 300k. Just kidding

In terms of numbers it should correspond to that one that just completed, that will be around 4M, yes. But the drop for the next FY shouldn't be such a drastic one like the DS one, from 2.3M to 130k.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CourageTCD said:

I see. I really would like to see a comparison between the forecast numbers for DS shipments for every year after the 3DS release and the actual shipments the DS managed to pull out

FY 2011 (April 2010 - March 2011): Forecast - 23.5M, result - 17.5M

FY 2012 (April 2011 - March 2012): Forecast - 9M, result - 5.1M

FY 2013 (April 2012 - March 2013): Forecast - 2.5M, result - 2.35M

FY 2014 (April 2013 - March 2014): Forecast - 200k, result - 130k

Thanks, XtremeBG. That's what I was curious to see. It seems like the Switch will be in a position similar to the DS's FY2013. If it actually is forecasted to sell 2.5M and do 2.35M, that would be awsome. It's probably not gonna be the situation though



CourageTCD said:

Thanks, XtremeBG. That's what I was curious to see. It seems like the Switch will be in a position similar to the DS's FY2013. If it actually is forecasted to sell 2.5M and do 2.35M, that would be awsome. It's probably not gonna be the situation though

We will know in exactly 2 weeks to the day.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CourageTCD said:

I see. I really would like to see a comparison between the forecast numbers for DS shipments for every year after the 3DS release and the actual shipments the DS managed to pull out

FY 2011 (April 2010 - March 2011): Forecast - 23.5M, result - 17.5M

FY 2012 (April 2011 - March 2012): Forecast - 9M, result - 5.1M

FY 2013 (April 2012 - March 2013): Forecast - 2.5M, result - 2.35M

FY 2014 (April 2013 - March 2014): Forecast - 200k, result - 130k

If Switch's final fiscal years have drops such as those last few fiscal years of the DS, then Switch 1 is cooked. The first big drop is the one, from 15.70 to 10.80. The next one is now, from almost 11M to just 4M. If that doesn't change, then we will have fiscal year ending March 2027 of something like 1.5M

Always good to see these data well-arranged. Thanks. I was curious to see the forecast vs actual shipments because we're gonna have the Switch forecast to next year soon and I had never seen the comparison between DS's forecast vs actual shipments before



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CourageTCD said:

Always good to see these data well-arranged. Thanks. I was curious to see the forecast vs actual shipments because we're gonna have the Switch forecast to next year soon and I had never seen the comparison between DS's forecast vs actual shipments before

I went through some articles from 2012 and 2013, and saw so different picture, so different reality .. in the report was talking how DS was dying, how the Wii disappoints in it's latest years of sale, how the DS is selling more in US than EU and JP, and how 3DS and Wii U sales are bad, so so different picture than what is now with the Switch 1 and Switch 2. Not only the sales themselves but the portion of those in the different regions as well. So different times for Nintendo back then.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CourageTCD said:

Always good to see these data well-arranged. Thanks. I was curious to see the forecast vs actual shipments because we're gonna have the Switch forecast to next year soon and I had never seen the comparison between DS's forecast vs actual shipments before

I went through some articles from 2012 and 2013, and saw so different picture, so different reality .. in the report was talking how DS was dying, how the Wii disappoints in it's latest years of sale, how the DS is selling more in US than EU and JP, and how 3DS and Wii U sales are bad, so so different picture than what is now with the Switch 1 and Switch 2. Not only the sales themselves but the portion of those in the different regions as well. So different times for Nintendo back then.

"O mundo não gira, ele capota" as we say in my country



Legendary Switch 1 always in my heart <3 I got it since day one on presale


I bought it 4 times during all generation because the pretty editions :D



tak13 said:

If you wander in gaming forums, you will see people mentioning that tomodachi life living the dream is depleted. FRANCE, UK, GERMANY
And it has become a meme in TikTok (meh).
Nintendo lowballed it, which is normal though.
Interest in new software fizzles out when the successor hardware has released.
For f@CK sake, why they post earning results 1 month and 1 week after the quarter ended?
(may 8th)

I ordered Tomodachi Life from Amazon a week ago, and the package hasn't left their facility yet.  I think they are sold out and just not telling me.  I'm in the US.



We are maybe a few hours from finally finding out if the Switch will be able to cross the 160 mark. Is it gonna be the end of an era? The end of especulations? I hope not. Not only because I would like the Switch to pass the 160 mark, but also beacuse I like this discussion around it