I have been predicting 36m for Japan. 40m is not totally out of the question, but it is definitely bold.

MHR soon, Good lineup coming and the rumored Pro revision for H2 coming. Babe

Now I see my prediction is the low bar.

39.99M

Bringing this up b4 we get numbers but so far so good. NSW might park in shipments with a good H1 which I’m aiming for 2.8mil or 3mil followed by a whopping 4mil-4.5mil in H2.

18.88mil: Y1-Y4 (3Y/10mon)

To add on from after seeing Q1 play out and now shortages and also knowing NSW pro is coming most likely Q3 (sept) as well as some strong 2022 releases, this is a quick thought for shipments only.

7.42mil: Y5 (26.3mil) > surpasses 3DS easily
5.20mil: Y6 (31.5mil) > normalizes with best Software year ever imo
3.80mil: Y7 (35.3mil) > Slows but still is high
3.20mil: Y8 (38.5mil) > Slight drop, Price cuts + Nintendo Selects
1.50mil: Y9/10 (40mil) > New Hardware releases but NSW sells last legs

Voted for 38 million and personally don't think it willl surpass much more than 36 

Numbers don't sum up enough to dare 40, the almost 10 million required  post-2022 is not happening unless nothing else comes from Nintendo in terms hardware until at least the end of 2025

Over 30M by now, but 40M will be tough to reach

Even with the great sales that the Switch have had in Japan, this is a ridiculous prediction.

LOL, I still see his 40m prediction as possible but still on the optimistic side.  Here is one thing he has in his favor: systems leaving Japan and being sold in the rest of the world.  Why do Japanese sales figures have to be limited to Japanese citizens, LOL?

with this year's sales being ludicrous, we're looking at about 35m by the end of the year, meaning anything below 37m lifetime can essentially be ruled out, with 38m being probably close to the median probability. Honestly, I can't believe I am saying this, but 40m may still be on the table, assuming the switch doesn't get killed immediately after it's replaced