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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

TheBraveGallade said:
curl-6 said:

Beware of making overly confident premature predictions.

Back in 2017 the idea of Switch outselling the PS4 was considered far-fetched to the point of being laughable, yet now there's a very real chance it could happen. Likewise, for all we know in 3 years time we could be laughing at the idea that people ever ruled out the idea of PS5 outselling Switch.

The gaming industry is highly volatile and you never know how things will turn out.

true, but if they don't bungle this holiday up its less of a 'very real possibility' and more of a 'near certainty', considering sony just seems content to just hard drop the ps4 the same way nintendo did the past 3 or so gens in the home console space. no price cut, only cross gen titles. at the current price point buying a ps4 doesn't have enough meric RN

My point was not to count PS5 out yet, it's far too early to proclaim it will sell less than PS4, or Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 December 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Doctor_MG said:
Ryng said:

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

Man...those are some ballsy predictions. I do not think that the Switch will become the best selling console of all time. I'm thinking more like:

America > 45M
Europe < 35M
Japan > 30M
RotW < 20M

Total < 130

Both your Europe and America numbers are super low.

Switch was at 26.58 million in America at the end of September, should be at 33-34 million at the end of the year, you are predicting only 11-12 million more after that, which is not only extremely low but, it's what it should sell only in 2021.

Switch will be above your 45 million estimate in America before 2022 begin.



Farsala said:
Ryng said:

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

Do you think the Switch won't be replaced?

I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.

....................

Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff.  You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff.  You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters.  That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m.  You are just making a big cliff argument.

The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded.   1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year.  Switch is obviously peaking this year.

Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less.  Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday.  So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m.  Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m.  Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.

You really need to evaluate your argument again.  You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.

In no way am I suggesting the Switch will fall off a cliff or sell under 100m. Again, I chose consoles that peaked to give Switch the toughest competition, because that is what it takes to sell 170m.

Let's go with the easiest comparison of them all. Let's assume you are right and the Switch sells 90m by the end of the fiscal year. Let's give it the same sales pattern as the PS4, but an extra quarter so that the PS4 doesn't get an extra holiday season.

In summary

After 17 quarters (4 holiday seasons): Switch- 90m

After 16 quarters (4 holiday seasons): PS4- 67.5m


PS4 will eventually sell ~120m.

With the same multiplier the Switch sells ~160m. Even at the most optimistic, and giving Switch severe handicaps, it still doesn't sell 170m at the current rate.

Ryng said:
Farsala said:

Do you think the Switch won't be replaced?

I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.

....................

Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku

So a full 7.5 years after the Switch. As for your prediction.

Americas- 38%

Europe- 36%

Will the console not decline? I am curious about your yearly estimates for those regions now.



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff.  You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff.  You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters.  That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m.  You are just making a big cliff argument.

The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded.   1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year.  Switch is obviously peaking this year.

Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less.  Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday.  So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m.  Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m.  Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.

You really need to evaluate your argument again.  You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.

In no way am I suggesting the Switch will fall off a cliff or sell under 100m. Again, I chose consoles that peaked to give Switch the toughest competition, because that is what it takes to sell 170m.

Let's go with the easiest comparison of them all. Let's assume you are right and the Switch sells 90m by the end of the fiscal year. Let's give it the same sales pattern as the PS4, but an extra quarter so that the PS4 doesn't get an extra holiday season.

In summary

After 17 quarters (4 holiday seasons): Switch- 90m

After 16 quarters (4 holiday seasons): PS4- 67.5m


PS4 will eventually sell ~120m.

With the same multiplier the Switch sells ~160m. Even at the most optimistic, and giving Switch severe handicaps, it still doesn't sell 170m at the current rate.

Ryng said:

I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.

....................

Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku

So a full 7.5 years after the Switch. As for your prediction.

Americas- 38%

Europe- 36%

Will the console not decline? I am curious about your yearly estimates for those regions now.

I'll go for America only since we have USA numbers with a monthly base (which is roughly 85% of America sales)

2017 - 4.9m /4.9m
2018 - 5.6m / 11.5m
2019 - 6.5m / 17.0m
2020 - 10.5m / 27.5m
2021 - 11.0m / 38.5m
2022 - 8.0m / 46.5m
2023 - 6.0m / 52.5m
2024 - 3.0m / 55.5m (Switch 2 holiday)
2025 - 1.5m / 57.0m
Lifetime < 60 million

Rest of America another 10 million or so, which would put the total to < 70 million.



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They won't. Switch keeps defying my high expectations, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised if it outsells the PS2.

PS5 is going to be an absolutely huge global success but Switch leading in Japan by a chunky 25 million units and the potential production/supply limitations will probably prove too much to overcome.



Ryng said:
Farsala said:

In no way am I suggesting the Switch will fall off a cliff or sell under 100m. Again, I chose consoles that peaked to give Switch the toughest competition, because that is what it takes to sell 170m.

Let's go with the easiest comparison of them all. Let's assume you are right and the Switch sells 90m by the end of the fiscal year. Let's give it the same sales pattern as the PS4, but an extra quarter so that the PS4 doesn't get an extra holiday season.

In summary

After 17 quarters (4 holiday seasons): Switch- 90m

After 16 quarters (4 holiday seasons): PS4- 67.5m


PS4 will eventually sell ~120m.

With the same multiplier the Switch sells ~160m. Even at the most optimistic, and giving Switch severe handicaps, it still doesn't sell 170m at the current rate.

Ryng said:

I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.

....................

Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku

So a full 7.5 years after the Switch. As for your prediction.

Americas- 38%

Europe- 36%

Will the console not decline? I am curious about your yearly estimates for those regions now.

I'll go for America only since we have USA numbers with a monthly base (which is roughly 85% of America sales)

2017 - 4.9m /4.9m
2018 - 5.6m / 11.5m
2019 - 6.5m / 17.0m
2020 - 10.5m / 27.5m
2021 - 11.0m / 38.5m
2022 - 8.0m / 46.5m
2023 - 6.0m / 52.5m
2024 - 3.0m / 55.5m (Switch 2 holiday)
2025 - 1.5m / 57.0m
Lifetime < 60 million

Rest of America another 10 million or so, which would put the total to < 70 million.

Basically, what you are saying is year 5 will outsell year 4 and year 6 will outsell year 3 and year 7 will outsell year 2. Most consoles start the gradual decline in year 5.

But there is precedence for that in the Nintendo DS, but that was accompanied with price cuts and revisions. Do you expect that to be the case for the Switch?

Even so you predict ~70m for Americas which is a solid 10m above the DS. Quite frankly, I think most markets have shifted towards being more front loaded for all consoles. This is not only due to the markets reacting faster due to stronger marketing but also due to the behavior of the manufacturers. Sony and Nintendo no longer want to do price cuts and build a massive install base, they want to be Apple and gain tons of profit per unit sold.



curl-6 said:

Beware of making overly confident premature predictions.

Back in 2017 the idea of Switch outselling the PS4 was considered far-fetched to the point of being laughable, yet now there's a very real chance it could happen. Likewise, for all we know in 3 years time we could be laughing at the idea that people ever ruled out the idea of PS5 outselling Switch.

The gaming industry is highly volatile and you never know how things will turn out.

curl, you have been so wrong for so long that you aren't in a position to tell others what to do, except advise them to be not like you. It's not too early to make the call now, the PS5 won't sell more than Switch. Just like it wasn't too early in 2017 to make the call that Switch will sell more than the PS4. The "it's too early" line in a general sense usually comes from people who don't like how things look at the moment, so they want to buy some time in hopes that the state of things gets closer to what they want them to be.

The reasons why Switch was going to sell more than the PS4 could already be known in 2017. The biggest reason of them was and is that Nintendo holds a monopoly in the portable console market, so merely keeping that market flat from generation 8 (~90m between 3DS and Vita) was going to get Switch close to 100m units sold. From there it doesn't need a big vote of confidence that Nintendo can achieve a big enough presence in the home console market to get the necessary sales to beat the PS4 lifetime sales. After all, the Wii U did not represent the ceiling for Nintendo home console sales, it was a complete and utter failure with Nintendo making all the wrong decisions for what they wanted to go for with that console.

Likewise, we already know a lot about the PS5 in late 2020. It's a straight-forward follow-up to the PS4, so the chances that the PS5 will appeal to a broader audience than the PS4 are very slim. One opportunity for growth is to take consumers away from Xbox which appeals to the very same group of gamers, but what we know about Xbox Series X is that this gen multiplats aren't going to be notably inferior in terms of framerate and resolution, plus Microsoft has been expanding their first party studios; this makes it tough for Sony to convince Xbox One owners to go for the PS brand, because Microsoft ticked the most important boxes to retain what they had.

Growth for the PS brand is mandatory to challenge Switch sales because Switch sells better than the PS4, but the realistic options for growth are limited to developing markets growing bigger over time, because the PS5 itself doesn't have the appeal to grow in the matured markets. Chances are good that PS sales decline slightly in both Japan and North America, so the gains the PS5 makes in developing markets will be mostly offset by these decreases.

I can understand why a lot of people have trouble to make good predictions for Nintendo consoles, because Nintendo consoles can greatly differ in strategy from one generation to the next one, but Sony and Microsoft make it pretty easy. The PS5 isn't a mysterious entity where it's hard to say what it is and what it will be, so the general consensus for its lifetime sales is bound to be in the correct ballpark, unlike for Switch where the consensus was off by miles.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Beware of making overly confident premature predictions.

Back in 2017 the idea of Switch outselling the PS4 was considered far-fetched to the point of being laughable, yet now there's a very real chance it could happen. Likewise, for all we know in 3 years time we could be laughing at the idea that people ever ruled out the idea of PS5 outselling Switch.

The gaming industry is highly volatile and you never know how things will turn out.

curl, you have been so wrong for so long that you aren't in a position to tell others what to do, except advise them to be not like you. It's not too early to make the call now, the PS5 won't sell more than Switch. Just like it wasn't too early in 2017 to make the call that Switch will sell more than the PS4. The "it's too early" line in a general sense usually comes from people who don't like how things look at the moment, so they want to buy some time in hopes that the state of things gets closer to what they want them to be.

The reasons why Switch was going to sell more than the PS4 could already be known in 2017. The biggest reason of them was and is that Nintendo holds a monopoly in the portable console market, so merely keeping that market flat from generation 8 (~90m between 3DS and Vita) was going to get Switch close to 100m units sold. From there it doesn't need a big vote of confidence that Nintendo can achieve a big enough presence in the home console market to get the necessary sales to beat the PS4 lifetime sales. After all, the Wii U did not represent the ceiling for Nintendo home console sales, it was a complete and utter failure with Nintendo making all the wrong decisions for what they wanted to go for with that console.

Likewise, we already know a lot about the PS5 in late 2020. It's a straight-forward follow-up to the PS4, so the chances that the PS5 will appeal to a broader audience than the PS4 are very slim. One opportunity for growth is to take consumers away from Xbox which appeals to the very same group of gamers, but what we know about Xbox Series X is that this gen multiplats aren't going to be notably inferior in terms of framerate and resolution, plus Microsoft has been expanding their first party studios; this makes it tough for Sony to convince Xbox One owners to go for the PS brand, because Microsoft ticked the most important boxes to retain what they had.

Growth for the PS brand is mandatory to challenge Switch sales because Switch sells better than the PS4, but the realistic options for growth are limited to developing markets growing bigger over time, because the PS5 itself doesn't have the appeal to grow in the matured markets. Chances are good that PS sales decline slightly in both Japan and North America, so the gains the PS5 makes in developing markets will be mostly offset by these decreases.

I can understand why a lot of people have trouble to make good predictions for Nintendo consoles, because Nintendo consoles can greatly differ in strategy from one generation to the next one, but Sony and Microsoft make it pretty easy. The PS5 isn't a mysterious entity where it's hard to say what it is and what it will be, so the general consensus for its lifetime sales is bound to be in the correct ballpark, unlike for Switch where the consensus was off by miles.

I agree on PS5, that it doesn't show any signs on how the market should be grown, so chances are with tougher competition from XBox, PC and streaming services that PS5 will decline or at best stay similar in sales to PS4. I agree that PS5 might lose in matured markets, especially Japan they seem to lose any grip on. I agree that developing markets may grow overall, so that PS5 might sell more there. But the big new markets to open up that helped PS grow in the era of PS1 and PS2 are mostly covered by now, so the developing markets also have limited growth capabilities.

But to be fair it was a lot harder to gauge Switch success pre launch. First it was a new concept with the hybrid, and while many - myself included - was entranced by the concept, I lerned to mistrust such anecdotal evidence. How much the market as a whole would like the concept was not so easy to gauge without proper market research. Another variable is Nintendo itself. They have proved time and time again, that they can be their own worst enemy. Decisions like stopping support of the Wii too early, and then follow up with a direction in the complete opposite of the Wii success make it hard to trust Nintendo to do always the right thing.

One thing you could know about Switch was, that Nintendo probably wouldn't fumble support in the launch year. They had a lineup for 2017, that covered a lot of bases. New sequels in established success series (Breath of the Wild, Mario Odyssey), sequel of their hit new IP (Splatoon 2), new IP trying out some stuff like Splatoon did (Arms), port of a proven successful game (Mario Kart 8) and a game showing off the new features of the hardware in the vein of Wii Sports, Nintendoland and Astros Playroom (1-2-Switch). That are six games for the launch year covering different bases. Nintendo didn't needed all to succeed, but this made clear that Switch probably wouldn't end up being a flop like WiiU.

Still, how much BOTW drove early momentum and how well received the hardware would be was hard to get a grip beforehand. Even for Nintendo themself. Soft launch in March allows for course correction before the first holiday, like they did with 3DS. That launch date shows a bit of a lack of confidence.

So yeah, I agree that something big and unexpected must happen for PS5 to significantly outsell PS4. But the success of Switch was much more of a gamble, because Nintendo didn't just do more of the thing before (which would've been a bad idea anyway, as before was WiiU) like Sony does.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

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Gonna chime in... yes and no.

Yes: The PS5, like the PS4 before it would b another 120M+ lifetime seller. There really is no reason to think otherwise. With the exception of the PS3 (and for obvious reasons), every PS console has managed to break 100M sales. But to say that the PS5 would be a 120M seller and with that beat the Switch sales, would also mean I am saying the Switch will not do up to 120M sales. But that brings us to the next point. And something that I see applying to both the Switch and PS5.

No: This depends on one thing. What is the Switch 2 going to be? Is it a full-on Switch 2 that replaces the Switch, or is it a Switch HD, which is basically a new version of the switch that maintains forward and backward compatibility on the platform? Either way, I expect this new version to show up by 2021/2022. If it's the latter, then the Switch (Switch + Switch lite + Switch HD) would go onto be the best selling gaming console/handheld ever made as I expect it to surpass the PS2 sales. And I believe this is what Nintendo would do. They make a Switch HD, while ensuring games made for the platform are still based on the current Switch.

TLDR: It comes down to how many consoles the Switch sells between now and 2022 when I expect the next switch would be released, and if that next switch is a new platform or just a Switch Pro which would extend the lifetime of the switch for another 4-5 years.

But this also applies to the PS5, because I believe the PS5 would be sony's first official "active" 10-year console. I believe that we will get a PS5 pro, but that it would come much later than the PS4pro did, I am pegging it to come around 2025. It would replace the PS5 as the 4K60/120fps console, dropping the PS5 to a dynamic 1440p60/120fps console. And extend the life of the PS5 for another 4-5 years too. Which would mean that the PS5 could go on to be a 130- 140M seller in its lifetime.

I also expect this is what MS will be doing with the Xbox too... that's why the machine is called "Series"... and the reason for this all comes down to the CPU in these consoles. They are powerful enough to carry them for 10 years, with the biggest cost being that they either top out at 30fps in some games or can't exceed 60fps.

Some forewarning... pretty much 95% of every single hardware related prediction I have made from 2017 till this point has come to pass. Some of my more notable ones...

  • What the switch would be hardware-wise (arm processor and a handheld/home console convertible back when all we knew was NX)
  • That there would be a handheld only version of the switch released in around 3 years after the switch released, made this prediction after the first showing of the Switch.
  • That next-gen consoles fromSony or MS would use SSDs, and in turn not need to have more than 16GB (to max 20GB) of RAM. Prediction I made when everyone thought SSDs would be price prohibitive.
  • That the next Xbox would be more powerful than the PS5, because MS needed it more than sony ever would, but that it wouldn't matter.
  • That MS was shifting focus away from consoles as their primary business model, the second they announced releasing games on PC, and over a year before Gamepass was even announced.
  • A price sandwich from MS, would have a console at $499 and one at $299/349, and sony would have a console at $399. I also said there would be digital-only SKUs released from both of them.
  • I predicted that both nextgen consoles would have GPUs more powerful than 12TF. Granted, I made his prediction long before RDNA was even announced so based on GCN architecture). Well, both consoles have GPUs that perform better than any 12TF GCN based GPU. So this one was kinda right too lol.
Last edited by Intrinsic - on 03 December 2020