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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

curl-6 said:

PS5 is already off to a stronger start than the PS4 and this time people know going in that Xbox Series won't have exclusives cos they'll be on PC as well, something that didn't become a factor until midway into Xbone's life, plus Series is inheriting a smaller base than Xbone did from 360, so PS5 may indeed manage to take even more marketshare from Microsoft this generation compared to last and grow through that.

On the other hand, you now have Game Pass which offers a lot of games to play for cheap in wake of Sony and a select few third party publishers raising game prices. There's also Microsoft's acquisition of Bethesda where Microsoft left it open if and how these games will release on the PS5.

The PS5 launch week being bigger than the PS4's doesn't mean anything. Jim Ryan said that Sony will have more stock available than a generation ago, so this was the expected result. It takes a few weeks until after launch before you can make an assessment of momentum, and for consoles that launch into the holiday season you need an extra four to five weeks on top of that before the actual momentum can be properly judged, because the holiday season boosts demand way above normal levels.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

PS5 is already off to a stronger start than the PS4 and this time people know going in that Xbox Series won't have exclusives cos they'll be on PC as well, something that didn't become a factor until midway into Xbone's life, plus Series is inheriting a smaller base than Xbone did from 360, so PS5 may indeed manage to take even more marketshare from Microsoft this generation compared to last and grow through that.

On the other hand, you now have Game Pass which offers a lot of games to play for cheap in wake of Sony and a select few third party publishers raising game prices. There's also Microsoft's acquisition of Bethesda where Microsoft left it open if and how these games will release on the PS5.

The PS5 launch week being bigger than the PS4's doesn't mean anything. Jim Ryan said that Sony will have more stock available than a generation ago, so this was the expected result. It takes a few weeks until after launch before you can make an assessment of momentum, and for consoles that launch into the holiday season you need an extra four to five weeks on top of that before the actual momentum can be properly judged, because the holiday season boosts demand way above normal levels.

I keep hearing about how Game Pass is such a huge system seller but it hasn't really shown in the numbers. As for Bethesda, I expect their games to be timed exclusives and release on PS5 6-12 months later which I don't think will sway many people to Xbox.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I don't get why people put so much stock on launch numbers. Basically the first holiday, you sell what you can make. Microsoft could make fewer consoles and sony could make more. Simple as that. The real analysis begins after the first quarter at least. And I believe the first year tells the story of the console unless something drastic happens. So just have some patience and nothing we say at this point matters lest we want to make fools of ourselves



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Eagle367 said:

I don't get why people put so much stock on launch numbers. Basically the first holiday, you sell what you can make. Microsoft could make fewer consoles and sony could make more. Simple as that. The real analysis begins after the first quarter at least. And I believe the first year tells the story of the console unless something drastic happens. So just have some patience and nothing we say at this point matters lest we want to make fools of ourselves

WiiU sold out mostly at launch, but in January the problems there visible. I also expect to get a better view on the situation in January numbers. This shows the real momentum going forward.



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curl-6 said:

I keep hearing about how Game Pass is such a huge system seller but it hasn't really shown in the numbers. As for Bethesda, I expect their games to be timed exclusives and release on PS5 6-12 months later which I don't think will sway many people to Xbox.

Of course it hasn't shown in the numbers at all. The service launched long after the Xbox One's fate had been sealed, so the market at large wasn't going to care what Microsoft did for the Xbox One; same reason why the Xbox One X being the most powerful console of its generation didn't do anything to change the sales of multiplatform games.

For XSX|S, we are barely past launch week and what Microsoft sold during that limited timeframe, they were going to sell regardless of Game Pass existing or not.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I keep hearing about how Game Pass is such a huge system seller but it hasn't really shown in the numbers. As for Bethesda, I expect their games to be timed exclusives and release on PS5 6-12 months later which I don't think will sway many people to Xbox.

Of course it hasn't shown in the numbers at all. The service launched long after the Xbox One's fate had been sealed, so the market at large wasn't going to care what Microsoft did for the Xbox One; same reason why the Xbox One X being the most powerful console of its generation didn't do anything to change the sales of multiplatform games.

For XSX|S, we are barely past launch week and what Microsoft sold during that limited timeframe, they were going to sell regardless of Game Pass existing or not.

It's just that people keep acting like Gamepass and the Bethesda deal somehow guarantee Xbox Series will do better than Xbox One, but I think that's far from guaranteed and still up in the air. It might do them little to no good at all. For all we know Xbox Series could sell worse than Xbox One. The brand has definitely been diminished over the years and all its exclusives being shared with PC gives them less system selling power.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

for the longevity of these new consoles, we need to wait untill mid summer to see their true baseline, after they stop having stock issues.
switch only took so long to keep up with demand casue they were being conservative. if you remember back in 2013, they massivly overproduced the wii U in the first year resulting in a tonne of unsold stock. I've heard that as much as half the wii Us on the market are ones produced in year one. and if you have stock of year one production its kinda hard to reduce price when your console was bade at 300 when its msrp is 350....
they didn't want a repeat of that.

ramping up production is neither fast nor cheap, we can even see that now, increased production lines for post ACNH is only now slowly going online....

at any rate, there is one thing for certain when it comes to the ps5: its going to lose. a lot. of marketshare in japan.
the ps4 already wasn't doing so hot in japan, the Wii U defending its numbers against it untill the switch was announced. it did get quite a bit of a boost in japan on the back of the vita there, with ps4/vita games coming to it, plus the ecosystem of psn being with the vita.

then the switch arrived, pretty much putting sony in a catch 22. make a handheld thats going to either be too expensive or too weak vs the switch, or follow in thier footsteps to compete but losing un the enourmous western market base to xbox. so they decided to drop the handheld, but this now has the side effect of having all thouse vita/ps4 devs migrating to switch.



I would never put money on the PS5 selling less than the Switch. It's Playstation!



Really? Why is that a good enough reason?



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Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is an estimate (in millions) by region:

JapanNAEURoWTotal
Switch37584926170


I've answered your request.  Now I have a request too.  You can criticize my numbers if you like, but you have to come up with a better argument than, "I just don't think it's going to sell that much."

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Now @Ryng also predicted 170m and predicted 70m for Americas, it is now at 36.31m. He predicted year 5 to outsell year 4, but right now it is down YoY.

Disclaimer: I am not reviving this post to annoy or make fun of. I just find the Switch's sales trajectory quite interesting.

I also just realized that I didn't make a post about the actual thread last year, so I will do that now.

I am predicting quite early right now that the PS5 won't outsell the Switch or the PS4. Why? Because of Sony's actions. They want more profit, not Unit sales. I have been saying it for years. In addition, consoles are more front loaded these days, and with the limited supply of sensors, the sales potential is also limited.  PS5 might stay at $499 for years.