It's really hard to say. We have such a normalcy bias. If things stay the way they are in the world or start to go back to the way things were in 2019 and earlier than I am sure that the PS5 will have a very fruitful life and will probably be very close to what the Switch is going to end up at. That said, if the supply chain shortages, chip shortages, cyber attacks and general rise of western authoritarianism and civil unrest continues to escalate the way it has for the past 1.5 years, then I am not sure what that will mean for console sales as a part of the broader economy. I think that the probability of a major political/socio-economic disruption occurring over the next couple of years that could (among many other things) bring console sales to a near stand-still in one or all of the main consumer regions for video game consoles is around 50% in my view. If this happens, the Switch will almost certainly end up being far ahead of the PS5 just by the fact that it was able to develop its install base earlier in time. Of course, I hope that none of this happens, but if you connect the dots of where we are now vs where we were 2 years ago, 2 more years into the future puts us in a pretty dark place.
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