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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

Farsala said:
Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Now @Ryng also predicted 170m and predicted 70m for Americas, it is now at 36.31m. He predicted year 5 to outsell year 4, but right now it is down YoY.

Disclaimer: I am not reviving this post to annoy or make fun of. I just find the Switch's sales trajectory quite interesting.

I also just realized that I didn't make a post about the actual thread last year, so I will do that now.

I am predicting quite early right now that the PS5 won't outsell the Switch or the PS4. Why? Because of Sony's actions. They want more profit, not Unit sales. I have been saying it for years. In addition, consoles are more front loaded these days, and with the limited supply of sensors, the sales potential is also limited.  PS5 might stay at $499 for years.

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.



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I think the ceiling for the PS5 is 130mil and for the Switch the absolute floor is 135mil, but I'm expecting over 140mil.



Has the potential to but I'd never bet a system will sell that high this early in it's life. The most I'd be willing to bet at the moment is PS5 will sell at least 100m.



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there's no telling, too soon to talk about Ps5 final numbers. PS5 can become Sony best selling console ever above 160M or can end up delivering low sales at something under 50M... only time will tell.



Prediction: In 5 years Nintendo will Lauch a "Core Mario game"  very similar to Astro Bot. That said, many will Ignore Astro Bot existence and say Nintendo created this concept.

Probably a bit above 100 million it should be considered a failure otherwise.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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I feel its dependent on whether or not Microsoft can get more of a good foothold this gen. The more successful Microsoft is the less successful the ps5 will likely be.



I think this depends on the Switch more than it depends on the PS5. Nintendo is expecting 24M units for this FY, meaning that by March 2022 Switch should be at 108.8M units. If FY 2022 is at least 20M, then Switch still has a chance at approaching Nintendo DS and PS2 (though I really don't think it's going to get to quite 155M). If there are significant drops (e.g. "THE CLIFF!"), then it wont. 

If it gets near Nintendo DS and PS2, then PS5 has VERY little chance at having sales as good. Sony has a VERY good track record with their home consoles. Everything but the PS3 has crossed the 100M mark. So maybe crossing 100M is easy for Sony, but crossing 120M, 130M, and 140M is no easy feat. Add this to greater competition, likely less overall exclusive third party games (I'm sure MS will be stepping in for a piece of the pie more), I just don't see the PS5 doing PS2/DS numbers. 

I guess I didn't see Switch getting close to these numbers either. 



It's really hard to say. We have such a normalcy bias. If things stay the way they are in the world or start to go back to the way things were in 2019 and earlier than I am sure that the PS5 will have a very fruitful life and will probably be very close to what the Switch is going to end up at. That said, if the supply chain shortages, chip shortages, cyber attacks and general rise of western authoritarianism and civil unrest continues to escalate the way it has for the past 1.5 years, then I am not sure what that will mean for console sales as a part of the broader economy. I think that the probability of a major political/socio-economic disruption occurring over the next couple of years that could (among many other things) bring console sales to a near stand-still in one or all of the main consumer regions for video game consoles is around 50% in my view. If this happens, the Switch will almost certainly end up being far ahead of the PS5 just by the fact that it was able to develop its install base earlier in time. Of course, I hope that none of this happens, but if you connect the dots of where we are now vs where we were 2 years ago, 2 more years into the future puts us in a pretty dark place.



Hard to say, without knowing when the Super Switch 2 launches. Really I don't see what it matters. Switch was a success and the ps5 will be as well.



Switch will hit number two behind PS2 and PS5 will come third. Seems like a good shout to me.