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Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

Sept 30, 2021 Farsala Lifetime Laser Lifetime
Japan 22.06 29 37
Americas 36.31 51 58
Europe 23.6 33.5 49
Other 10.89 16.5 26
Total 92.86 130 170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m

21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84%

DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81%

Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93%

PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80%

Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii.

Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.  You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 05 November 2021