Depends. I reckon Sony will prioritise a higher price point and quick transition to PS6 again.
Depends. I reckon Sony will prioritise a higher price point and quick transition to PS6 again.
Farsala said:
It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance. As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters) Switch: Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16% Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16% Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12% Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12% Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others. Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.) Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11% Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9% Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4% Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them. |
Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns.
As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters)
Switch:
Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13%
Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14%
Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11%
Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10%
America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off.
Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap)
Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5%
Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9%
Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1%
Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters. That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year. That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate). That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. |
Next comparing to my prediction. I predicted 112m at this point, but the Switch shipped 114.33m as of the quarterly report.
It has already exceeded my expectations by 2m, we shall see for the rest of the years.
26.96/29m 93%
44.59/51m 87%
29.29/33.5m 87%
13.49/16.5m 82%
Looking pretty bad for me too, with Others projected to be closest.