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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

src on 05 November 2021

Depends. I reckon Sony will prioritise a higher price point and quick transition to PS6 again.



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Farsala on 08 November 2022
Farsala said:
Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%) /37

Americas: 26.5m (46%) /58

Europe: 17.7m (36%) /49

Other: 7.8m  (30%) /26

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns.

As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13%

Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14%

Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11%

Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10%

America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off.

Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap)

Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5%

Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1%

Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii.

@The_Liquid_Laser



Farsala on 08 November 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.


Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

Sept 30, 2021Farsala LifetimeLaser Lifetime
Japan22.062937
Americas36.315158
Europe23.633.549
Other10.8916.526
Total92.86130170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

Next comparing to my prediction. I predicted 112m at this point, but the Switch shipped 114.33m as of the quarterly report.

It has already exceeded my expectations by 2m, we shall see for the rest of the years.

26.96/29m 93%

44.59/51m 87%

29.29/33.5m 87%

13.49/16.5m 82%

Looking pretty bad for me too, with Others projected to be closest.