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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

Although I predict a lot of people may just build budget/mid range PC's now. Would not surprise me if the PS5 sales slow a lot come the next couple of years.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Now @Ryng also predicted 170m and predicted 70m for Americas, it is now at 36.31m. He predicted year 5 to outsell year 4, but right now it is down YoY.

Disclaimer: I am not reviving this post to annoy or make fun of. I just find the Switch's sales trajectory quite interesting.

I also just realized that I didn't make a post about the actual thread last year, so I will do that now.

I am predicting quite early right now that the PS5 won't outsell the Switch or the PS4. Why? Because of Sony's actions. They want more profit, not Unit sales. I have been saying it for years. In addition, consoles are more front loaded these days, and with the limited supply of sensors, the sales potential is also limited.  PS5 might stay at $499 for years.

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.

Last edited by Farsala - on 04 November 2021

The price alone will probably prevent it from reaching Switch-level sales.



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.


Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

Sept 30, 2021Farsala LifetimeLaser Lifetime
Japan22.062937
Americas36.315158
Europe23.633.549
Other10.8916.526
Total92.86130170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.

There's a zero chance the Switch doesn't reach 30mil in Japan.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.


Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

Sept 30, 2021Farsala LifetimeLaser Lifetime
Japan22.062937
Americas36.315158
Europe23.633.549
Other10.8916.526
Total92.86130170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m

21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84%

DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81%

Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93%

PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80%

Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii.



Kakadu18 said:
Farsala said:

As you wish. I am thinking more like 125-130m. But I will breakdown 130m.

Switch: 130m

Japan- 29m

Americas- 51m

Europe- 33.5m

Others- 16.5m

Yearly Breakdown as of Septermber 30.

2021- 92.86m

2022-112m

2023- 122m

2024- 126m

2025 and etc.- 130m

Switch should have another good year next year with no successor announced and good SW support, ~20m. Beyond that I am not sure how the years will go, but here is a tentative prediction.

There's a zero chance the Switch doesn't reach 30mil in Japan.

Bump me when it does, I will still not be too far off.



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:


Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

Sept 30, 2021 Farsala Lifetime Laser Lifetime
Japan 22.06 29 37
Americas 36.31 51 58
Europe 23.6 33.5 49
Other 10.89 16.5 26
Total 92.86 130 170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m

21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84%

DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81%

Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93%

PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80%

Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii.

Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.  You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 05 November 2021

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

@bold, well no. They are predicting about 15.5m

21st quarter puts it at 108m-109m. 108 or 109/130 is 83% or 84%

DS 21st quarter was at 125m. or 81%

Wii 21st quarter was at 95m. or 93%

PS4 21st quarter was at 94m. or 80%

Basically i am predicting it too have similar drop off to the DS and PS4, and a much better later life than the Wii.

Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.  You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year.

It really isn't that abnormal.

NDS shipped an even more impressive 27.11m in a single fiscal year and then the rest of the lifetime was 25m.

Still, I guess we are part of opposite extremes when it comes to Switch LTD sales.



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Even if you change the calculation by another 0.5m that still makes it the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.  You're saying that they'll ship 21.5m for the rest of their lifetime right after they've shipped an impressive 24m for a single fiscal year.

It really isn't that abnormal.

NDS shipped an even more impressive 27.11m in a single fiscal year and then the rest of the lifetime was 25m.

Still, I guess we are part of opposite extremes when it comes to Switch LTD sales.

There is one gigantic difference you're missing the ds had a successor straight after that fiscal year. The switch doesn't even have rumours of a successor yet.