Depends. I reckon Sony will prioritise a higher price point and quick transition to PS6 again.
Farsala said:
It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance. As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters) Switch: Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16% Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16% Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12% Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12% Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others. Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.) Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11% Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9% Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4% Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them. |
Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns.
As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters)
Switch:
Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13%
Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14%
Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11%
Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10%
America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off.
Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap)
Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5%
Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9%
Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1%
Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters. That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year. That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate). That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. |
Next comparing to my prediction. I predicted 112m at this point, but the Switch shipped 114.33m as of the quarterly report.
It has already exceeded my expectations by 2m, we shall see for the rest of the years.
26.96/29m 93%
44.59/51m 87%
29.29/33.5m 87%
13.49/16.5m 82%
Looking pretty bad for me too, with Others projected to be closest.
Farsala said:
Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns. As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters) Switch: Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13% Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14% Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11% Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10% America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off. Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap) Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5% Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9% Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1% Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii. |
Another update.
As of September 30, 2023 (27 quarters)
Switch:
Japan- 31.77m (85.9%) +13%
Americas- 51.03m (88.0%) +11%
Europe- 34.15m (69.7%) +10%
Other- 15.51m (59.7%) +8%
Safe to say Japan and Americas will probably meet your prediction or get very close, with which I am truly impressed. Europe and Others probably won't.
Compare to top consoles at 26 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)
Japan (DS, 26 quarters): 32.76m (99.3%) +10%
Americas (Wii, 26 quarters): 47.75m (98.2%) +1%
Europe (PS2, 26 quarters): 44.79m (82.3%) +6%
DS and Wii are almost entirely done selling at this point, but the Ps2 has more to go. In order for the Switch to come close to the PS2 in Europe, Switch would require at least 3 more years of consistent sales. Others are in a worse spot.
Farsala said:
Next comparing to my prediction. I predicted 112m at this point, but the Switch shipped 114.33m as of the quarterly report. It has already exceeded my expectations by 2m, we shall see for the rest of the years. 26.96/29m 93% 44.59/51m 87% 29.29/33.5m 87% 13.49/16.5m 82% Looking pretty bad for me too, with Others projected to be closest. |
As for me. I predicted 122m at this point. Switch completely smashed that prediction by shipping 132.46m as of the quarterly report.
I definitely expected more Switch 2 rumblings at this point as well as TOTK and Super Mario Wonder being saved for Switch 2 launch. Alas they have exceeded my expectations by 10m, and already surpassed my LTD expectations back in 2021.
31.77m/29m 110%
51.03m/51m 100%
34.15m/33.5m 102%
15.51m/16.5m 94%
Overall Japan surprised me the most, especially this year with the Foreign exchange rate and subsequent tourist spending boom.
Now my only hope is to be less wrong than The Liquid Laser. The midpoint between us is 150m LTD, stay tuned.
| The_Liquid_Laser said:
One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters. That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year. That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate). That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict. |
Farsala said:
Another update. As of September 30, 2023 (27 quarters) Switch: Japan- 31.77m (85.9%) +13% Americas- 51.03m (88.0%) +11% Europe- 34.15m (69.7%) +10% Other- 15.51m (59.7%) +8% Safe to say Japan and Americas will probably meet your prediction or get very close, with which I am truly impressed. Europe and Others probably won't. Compare to top consoles at 26 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.) Japan (DS, 26 quarters): 32.76m (99.3%) +10% Americas (Wii, 26 quarters): 47.75m (98.2%) +1% Europe (PS2, 26 quarters): 44.79m (82.3%) +6% DS and Wii are almost entirely done selling at this point, but the Ps2 has more to go. In order for the Switch to come close to the PS2 in Europe, Switch would require at least 3 more years of consistent sales. Others are in a worse spot. |
Just wanted to reply to this real quick, since I haven't made a post in a while.
Overall, I see things progressing fairly well toward my prediction. However, I do think I overshot a little bit at this point at 170m. Switch is going to continue to have healthy sales for this fiscal year and the next fiscal year. By the end of next fiscal year Switch 2 will have released and Switch 1 will still get a little bit more sales in the fiscal year(s) after Switch 2 releases. So, I think total sales are going to exceed 160m, but they will fall short of 170m.
Talking by region, I think I actually underestimated sales in Japan and the Americas slightly. However, I overestimated sales in Europe and Other by even more. So, we'll see how things turn out, but at this point I'm expecting Switch lifetime sales to end up somewhere in the 160m-170m range, but I see 170m as very unlikely.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
No they will not. switch got a massive boost cause of covid free money, and it was in it's prime when tha happened. This will not happen again.
| zeldaring said: No they will not. switch got a massive boost cause of covid free money, and it was in it's prime when tha happened. This will not happen again. |
Covid aside, you can't make the switch's success that simple. Switch is in its 7th year and still selling very well.
Chrkeller said:
Covid aside, you can't make the switch's success that simple. Switch is in its 7th year and still selling very well. |
Switch would have still been very successful, but I think we would be looking at 130 million tops.
Looking at it right now, PS5 has almost no chance unless...
PS6 takes until 2028 (likely) and stumbles out of the gate (PS3 all over again).
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
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