Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

[Farsala]

Farsala said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

	Sept 30, 2021	Farsala Lifetime	Laser Lifetime
Japan	22.06	29	37
Americas	36.31	51	58
Europe	23.6	33.5	49
Other	10.89	16.5	26
Total	92.86	130	170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

Next comparing to my prediction. I predicted 112m at this point, but the Switch shipped 114.33m as of the quarterly report.

It has already exceeded my expectations by 2m, we shall see for the rest of the years.

26.96/29m 93%

44.59/51m 87%

29.29/33.5m 87%

13.49/16.5m 82%

Looking pretty bad for me too, with Others projected to be closest.

As for me. I predicted 122m at this point. Switch completely smashed that prediction by shipping 132.46m as of the quarterly report.

I definitely expected more Switch 2 rumblings at this point as well as TOTK and Super Mario Wonder being saved for Switch 2 launch. Alas they have exceeded my expectations by 10m, and already surpassed my LTD expectations back in 2021.

31.77m/29m 110%

51.03m/51m 100%

34.15m/33.5m 102%

15.51m/16.5m 94%

Overall Japan surprised me the most, especially this year with the Foreign exchange rate and subsequent tourist spending boom.

Now my only hope is to be less wrong than The Liquid Laser. The midpoint between us is 150m LTD, stay tuned.