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Farsala on 08 November 2022
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Farsala said:
Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%) /37

Americas: 26.5m (46%) /58

Europe: 17.7m (36%) /49

Other: 7.8m  (30%) /26

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns.

As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13%

Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14%

Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11%

Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10%

America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off.

Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap)

Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5%

Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1%

Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii.

@The_Liquid_Laser