Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ok, I put our projections together in one table alone with the current shipments (in millions).  I'm assuming someone will bump this thread up in a year or so.

	Sept 30, 2021	Farsala Lifetime	Laser Lifetime
Japan	22.06	29	37
Americas	36.31	51	58
Europe	23.6	33.5	49
Other	10.89	16.5	26
Total	92.86	130	170

One thing to keep in mind though is that Nintendo is forecasting about another 16m in shipments for the next two quarters.  That would put the total at around 109m at the end of the fiscal year.  That would mean they could only ship another 21m for the rest of their lifetime, which would be less than they'd ship for the current fiscal year (assuming Nintendo's forecast of 24m is accurate).  That is about the steepest cliff that I've ever seen anyone predict.

Farsala said:

Farsala said:

Once again it is that time of the year. So let's do some breakdowns.

As of September 30, 2022 (23 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 26.96m (72.9%) +13%

Americas- 44.59m (76.8%) +14%

Europe- 29.29m (59.8%) +11%

Other- 13.49m (51.9%) +10%

America is the closest, Others and Europe are quite far off.

Compare to top consoles at 22 quarters (1 quarter Switch handicap)

Japan (DS, 22 quarters): 30.4m (88.7%) +5%

Americas (Wii, 22 quarters): 45.70m (97.5%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 22 quarters): 38.6m (76%) +1%

Compared to the previous years the wheels have fallen off for Japan and Europe when compared to the DS or PS2. If Switch didn't have a quarter advantage, then maybe it would not have made more progress. However in the Americas, there is a different story. The Switch is trucking along and should easily beat the Wii.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Another update.

As of September 30, 2023 (27 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 31.77m (85.9%) +13%

Americas- 51.03m (88.0%) +11%

Europe- 34.15m (69.7%) +10%

Other- 15.51m (59.7%) +8%

Safe to say Japan and Americas will probably meet your prediction or get very close, with which I am truly impressed.  Europe and Others probably won't.

Compare to top consoles at 26 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 26 quarters): 32.76m (99.3%) +10%

Americas (Wii, 26 quarters): 47.75m (98.2%) +1%

Europe (PS2, 26 quarters): 44.79m (82.3%) +6%

DS and Wii are almost entirely done selling at this point, but the Ps2 has more to go. In order for the Switch to come close to the PS2 in Europe, Switch would require at least 3 more years of consistent sales. Others are in a worse spot.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Just wanted to reply to this real quick, since I haven't made a post in a while.  

Overall, I see things progressing fairly well toward my prediction.  However, I do think I overshot a little bit at this point at 170m.  Switch is going to continue to have healthy sales for this fiscal year and the next fiscal year.  By the end of next fiscal year Switch 2 will have released and Switch 1 will still get a little bit more sales in the fiscal year(s) after Switch 2 releases.  So, I think total sales are going to exceed 160m, but they will fall short of 170m.

Talking by region, I think I actually underestimated sales in Japan and the Americas slightly.  However, I overestimated sales in Europe and Other by even more.  So, we'll see how things turn out, but at this point I'm expecting Switch lifetime sales to end up somewhere in the 160m-170m range, but I see 170m as very unlikely.