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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

Wman1996 said:

I think it will sell a little less in its lifetime than the Switch, but it's too early to say. I'd say about 105 million for the PS5, and 110-115 million for the Switch.

18-12-6 is my newest best VGChartz meme. But even with that extremely lowball of an prediction for the next three years src ended up admitting the number for Switch would be at least 115-120 million.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 02 December 2020

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Ryng said:

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

Man...those are some ballsy predictions. I do not think that the Switch will become the best selling console of all time. I'm thinking more like:

America > 45M
Europe < 35M
Japan > 30M
RotW < 20M

Total < 130



Way to early to tell, switch is at 70mill atm. Not even close to 170mill.
To early for ps5 to.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Considering how crazy well the Switch is selling, and that it has the potential to be THE best selling console of all time, the chances is that it won't

But the PS5 dosen't need to. It will more likely than not do gangbusters anyway.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

I think there's a couple of things going against it in that regard

* The price. It's an expensive system if you want the full package.
* Xbox didnt shit the bed this time around.

But on the other hand... it's a great system and Sony has a lot of good IP's to sell it.

it could very well happen, but I'm gonna go with no. At least for now :P



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Ryng said:

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

Do you think the Switch won't be replaced?



Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is an estimate (in millions) by region:

JapanNAEURoWTotal
Switch37584926170


I've answered your request.  Now I have a request too.  You can criticize my numbers if you like, but you have to come up with a better argument than, "I just don't think it's going to sell that much."

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff.  You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff.  You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters.  That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m.  You are just making a big cliff argument.

The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded.   1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year.  Switch is obviously peaking this year.

Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less.  Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday.  So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m.  Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m.  Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.

You really need to evaluate your argument again.  You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.



Farsala said:
Ryng said:

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

Do you think the Switch won't be replaced?

Not in less than 4 years nope



Beware of making overly confident premature predictions.

Back in 2017 the idea of Switch outselling the PS4 was considered far-fetched to the point of being laughable, yet now there's a very real chance it could happen. Likewise, for all we know in 3 years time we could be laughing at the idea that people ever ruled out the idea of PS5 outselling Switch.

The gaming industry is highly volatile and you never know how things will turn out.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Beware of making overly confident premature predictions.

Back in 2017 the idea of Switch outselling the PS4 was considered far-fetched to the point of being laughable, yet now there's a very real chance it could happen. Likewise, for all we know in 3 years time we could be laughing at the idea that people ever ruled out the idea of PS5 outselling Switch.

The gaming industry is highly volatile and you never know how things will turn out.

true, but if they don't bungle this holiday up its less of a 'very real possibility' and more of a 'near certainty', considering sony just seems content to just hard drop the ps4 the same way nintendo did the past 3 or so gens in the home console space. no price cut, only cross gen titles. at the current price point buying a ps4 doesn't have enough meric RN