The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff. You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff. You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters. That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m. You are just making a big cliff argument.
The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded. 1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year. Switch is obviously peaking this year.
Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less. Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday. So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m. Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m. Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.
You really need to evaluate your argument again. You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.
In no way am I suggesting the Switch will fall off a cliff or sell under 100m. Again, I chose consoles that peaked to give Switch the toughest competition, because that is what it takes to sell 170m.
Let's go with the easiest comparison of them all. Let's assume you are right and the Switch sells 90m by the end of the fiscal year. Let's give it the same sales pattern as the PS4, but an extra quarter so that the PS4 doesn't get an extra holiday season.
After 17 quarters (4 holiday seasons): Switch- 90m
After 16 quarters (4 holiday seasons): PS4- 67.5m
PS4 will eventually sell ~120m.
With the same multiplier the Switch sells ~160m. Even at the most optimistic, and giving Switch severe handicaps, it still doesn't sell 170m at the current rate.
I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.
Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku
So a full 7.5 years after the Switch. As for your prediction.
Will the console not decline? I am curious about your yearly estimates for those regions now.
I'll go for America only since we have USA numbers with a monthly base (which is roughly 85% of America sales)
2017 - 4.9m /4.9m
2018 - 5.6m / 11.5m
2019 - 6.5m / 17.0m
2020 - 10.5m / 27.5m
2021 - 11.0m / 38.5m
2022 - 8.0m / 46.5m
2023 - 6.0m / 52.5m
2024 - 3.0m / 55.5m (Switch 2 holiday)
2025 - 1.5m / 57.0m
Lifetime < 60 million
Rest of America another 10 million or so, which would put the total to < 70 million.