In no way am I suggesting the Switch will fall off a cliff or sell under 100m. Again, I chose consoles that peaked to give Switch the toughest competition, because that is what it takes to sell 170m.
Let's go with the easiest comparison of them all. Let's assume you are right and the Switch sells 90m by the end of the fiscal year. Let's give it the same sales pattern as the PS4, but an extra quarter so that the PS4 doesn't get an extra holiday season.
After 17 quarters (4 holiday seasons): Switch- 90m
After 16 quarters (4 holiday seasons): PS4- 67.5m
PS4 will eventually sell ~120m.
With the same multiplier the Switch sells ~160m. Even at the most optimistic, and giving Switch severe handicaps, it still doesn't sell 170m at the current rate.
I expect Switch 2 in holiday 2024.
Btw, shouldn't this thread be closed since, you know.... the user history? @Hiku
So a full 7.5 years after the Switch. As for your prediction.
Will the console not decline? I am curious about your yearly estimates for those regions now.
I'll go for America only since we have USA numbers with a monthly base (which is roughly 85% of America sales)
2017 - 4.9m /4.9m
2018 - 5.6m / 11.5m
2019 - 6.5m / 17.0m
2020 - 10.5m / 27.5m
2021 - 11.0m / 38.5m
2022 - 8.0m / 46.5m
2023 - 6.0m / 52.5m
2024 - 3.0m / 55.5m (Switch 2 holiday)
2025 - 1.5m / 57.0m
Lifetime < 60 million
Rest of America another 10 million or so, which would put the total to < 70 million.
Basically, what you are saying is year 5 will outsell year 4 and year 6 will outsell year 3 and year 7 will outsell year 2. Most consoles start the gradual decline in year 5.
But there is precedence for that in the Nintendo DS, but that was accompanied with price cuts and revisions. Do you expect that to be the case for the Switch?
Even so you predict ~70m for Americas which is a solid 10m above the DS. Quite frankly, I think most markets have shifted towards being more front loaded for all consoles. This is not only due to the markets reacting faster due to stronger marketing but also due to the behavior of the manufacturers. Sony and Nintendo no longer want to do price cuts and build a massive install base, they want to be Apple and gain tons of profit per unit sold.