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Forums - Sales Discussion - Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

Farsala said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is an estimate (in millions) by region:

JapanNAEURoWTotal
Switch37584926170


I've answered your request.  Now I have a request too.  You can criticize my numbers if you like, but you have to come up with a better argument than, "I just don't think it's going to sell that much."

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

This methodology doesn't make sense when more granular data is available.  Comparing LTD through x quarters vs. final LTD as a % implies a baseline long term trend.  That point is exactly what is being contended when trying to compare legs for an actively selling console vs one that has completed selling. 

IE:

America NDS through 14 quarters - 22.39M

America Wii through 14 quarters - 33.40M (79%)

If that's all the data I present, and ignore the NDS's actual final total, I should conclude that the DS isn't/wasn't on pace for 60M at that time.  But that's silly, because if I looked at more granular data, I could surmise that the NDS seems to be on an upward trend in America later in its life than the Wii's peak, and guess that FY4 and FY5 might continue that trend or stay flat and help keep the NDS in the battle (which turned into a blowout in the NDS's favor).

You're shutting down the nitty gritty of the argument before it even has a chance to begin with this logic.  Plus launch aligning by quarters ignores the problem of the holiday count.

Here's some more broken down data (I can split it in two if it makes it larger and easier to read).  Obviously PS2 is hard to compare 1:1 due to different regional breakdowns.

This makes it more obvious that the Wii is a poor comparison in any region.  Also makes it evident that the NSW is in the middle of a peak year, and its hard to make any conclusions out of the current LTD because its about to spike with a big holiday quarter (possibly record holiday quarter), and ignoring the impact of that by looking at 15 mo LTD is going to miss the actual signal by a longshot.

What would make more sense is to project the rest of the current FY or wait for another quarter (so final FY4 prediction can become more precise - only one quarter to predict instead of the broad range holiday quarter) and then project out from there.  What caused a peak this year?  Factors that drove it, factors that held it back?  Which of those will be present next year and how strong?  From there we can derive potential for FY5 and consider how that might shape up against the NDS sales curves region by region, and then project forward.



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mk7sx said:
Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

This methodology doesn't make sense when more granular data is available.  Comparing LTD through x quarters vs. final LTD as a % implies a baseline long term trend.  That point is exactly what is being contended when trying to compare legs for an actively selling console vs one that has completed selling. 

IE:

America NDS through 14 quarters - 22.39M

America Wii through 14 quarters - 33.40M (79%)

If that's all the data I present, and ignore the NDS's actual final total, I should conclude that the DS isn't/wasn't on pace for 60M at that time.  But that's silly, because if I looked at more granular data, I could surmise that the NDS seems to be on an upward trend in America later in its life than the Wii's peak, and guess that FY4 and FY5 might continue that trend or stay flat and help keep the NDS in the battle (which turned into a blowout in the NDS's favor).

You're shutting down the nitty gritty of the argument before it even has a chance to begin with this logic.  Plus launch aligning by quarters ignores the problem of the holiday count.

Here's some more broken down data (I can split it in two if it makes it larger and easier to read).  Obviously PS2 is hard to compare 1:1 due to different regional breakdowns.

This makes it more obvious that the Wii is a poor comparison in any region.  Also makes it evident that the NSW is in the middle of a peak year, and its hard to make any conclusions out of the current LTD because its about to spike with a big holiday quarter (possibly record holiday quarter), and ignoring the impact of that by looking at 15 mo LTD is going to miss the actual signal by a longshot.

What would make more sense is to project the rest of the current FY or wait for another quarter (so final FY4 prediction can become more precise - only one quarter to predict instead of the broad range holiday quarter) and then project out from there.  What caused a peak this year?  Factors that drove it, factors that held it back?  Which of those will be present next year and how strong?  From there we can derive potential for FY5 and consider how that might shape up against the NDS sales curves region by region, and then project forward.

Switch already gets a 1 quarter advantage in my comparisons so the numbers are actually worse than that. But the point is, he expects peak Switch sales in every territory so it is best to compare to the peak consoles in each territory. The fact that NDS peaked late in Americas, makes it a bad comparison, because the NDS wouldn't have many sales. We want to compare maximum sales vs maximum sales with an expectation of 170m.

In addition consoles like the NDS, PS2 and Wii launched very late in some territories, which means they had legs that shouldn't have existed if they launched in all territories simultaneously like the PS4 or Switch.



TruckOSaurus said:
src said:

No, those are next year numbers. I did forget 2020 holidays so yeah 115 -120 would be the new figure.

But I thought the Switch could only dream of hitting 120m+ and now it's actually within reach of your super pessimistic prediction?

And where does this leave PS4, which apparently Switch could "only dream of" passing in sales?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

But I thought the Switch could only dream of hitting 120m+ and now it's actually within reach of your super pessimistic prediction?

And where does this leave PS4, which apparently Switch could "only dream of" passing in sales?

Honestly don’t think NSW can pass 100mil at this point, it’s only at 68mil while PS4 is at 110mil+ and heading for a 140mil-150mil lifetime number. So NSW can’t possible sell more



Agente42 said:

We need one year to make a better scenario. 

In a year from now, NSW will be at 99mil and people will still think NSW falling off a cliff xD



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tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

And where does this leave PS4, which apparently Switch could "only dream of" passing in sales?

Honestly don’t think NSW can pass 100mil at this point, it’s only at 68mil while PS4 is at 110mil+ and heading for a 140mil-150mil lifetime number. So NSW can’t possible sell more

Clearly Switch will fall off a cliff in 2021 as they have used up all their big games already and who's gonna buy an underpowered system with no multimedia features and hardly any AAA third party support when they could get a PS5 or an Xbox Series and have 4K and ray tracing?

It's over for Nintendo, time to go third party.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 December 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Honestly don’t think NSW can pass 100mil at this point, it’s only at 68mil while PS4 is at 110mil+ and heading for a 140mil-150mil lifetime number. So NSW can’t possible sell more

Clearly Switch will fall off a cliff in 2021 as they have used up all their big games already and who's gonna buy an underpowered system with no multimedia features and hardly any AAA third party support when they could get a PS5 or an Xbox Series and have 4K and ray tracing?

It's over for Nintendo, time to go third party.

Honestly why does Ninty even bother at this point. It should quit while it's ahead.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million



B6a6es said:
Mnementh said:

And you expect this to go better next gen, when Streaming service join in the fray and the value of the PC platform massively increased though gamepass?

1- Cloud Gaming is a Meme (as Stadia has Proven), so its still far away for at least 10 years, even Japan with its super high speed Internet Services Doesn’t give a rat ass about it.

2- Gamepass while its a great service for consumers its still basically an over-glorified PS+ Collection, Nintendo,Steam isn’t even concerned about it so why Sony.

https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news/sony-playstation-subscription-xbox-game-pass-2821332?amp

You asked why should Sony, they actually are so there ya go. 

Also I’d argue Stadia is a meme, not Cloud gaming. It’s a meme due to the bare launch, missing features and broken promises. Last I checked people aren’t laughing at Luna or Xcloud. It’s only going to get bigger as the years go on.

That Game Pass comparison to PS Plus collection is one of the most cringe statements I’ve read here in while. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

I think it will sell a little less in its lifetime than the Switch, but it's too early to say. I'd say about 105 million for the PS5, and 110-115 million for the Switch.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima