1- Cloud Gaming is a Meme (as Stadia has Proven), so its still far away for at least 10 years, even Japan with its super high speed Internet Services Doesn’t give a rat ass about it.

2- Gamepass while its a great service for consumers its still basically an over-glorified PS+ Collection, Nintendo,Steam isn’t even concerned about it so why Sony.

Switch will make it to 80 millions this year.
Let's say it gets replaced in 2024.
2021 - 25 millions (105)
2022 - 17 millions (122)
2023 - 13 millions (135)
2024 - 5 millions (140)
2025 and on - 2 millions (142)

That's the track i could see it heading on. It could get replaced before so in 2023 and cut it but i do think 130 millions is almost a sure thing now. We will see where they are heading this year with how they play it. How deep the price cut will be, on which model and if a new model gets released, at what price.

The PS4 was alone on the market, got like nothing wrong the whole gen and will struggle to reach 120 millions, i don't see how the PS5 will top the Switch with more competition unless there is a huge market growth.

While i doubt that Switch would reach 80M by the end of 2020 (my estimate 76-77M) i do agree that it might reach 140M range in life-time sales

however, i dont think the Switch would have any effect with PS5 Sales-wise as it would co-exist similarly to GBA selling like hotcakes during PS2 Behemoth era

as for why PS4 sales dropped this year is mostly due to not having a Price-Drop while Next-Gen is around the corner, if sony released a PS4 mini model for 149.99$ it would guarantee a 140M LT sales for PS4

Exclusives were never meant to put Nintendo in the blue ocean. The blue ocean strategy was specifically targeted for Wii and DS, finding new customers that were so far not part of the gaming customer base. And I think with motion gaming and games like Big Brain Academy Nintendo really tapped into a new customer base, a blue ocean. A Zelda on the other hand is clearly in the red ocean. Gamecube and GBA were red ocean strategies, as were 3DS and WiiU. Even Wii and DS has red ocean games like Zelda or Metroid. For Switch oyu can clearly asee which games are blue ocean strategy: Labo, Ring Fit Adventure and maybe Mario Kart Live Circuit. That's not what propels Switch to success, it is at most an add on.

I agree that exclusives aren't a blue ocean. That is like saying Nike is in a blue ocean, because some people only buy Nike shoes. But other companies also have shoes, so that argument falls flat. Similarly someone may prefer Zelda over other action adventures. But that someone can only do so, if he already tried previous zelda games and other action adventures and decided in comparison, that he likes Zelda more. That is so much *not* a new market. A new market is a product that someone who never played looks at and says: That seems fun.

That all doesn't mean red oceans can't have niches. But that is less the company creating a new market (blue ocean) than competition abandoning the niche. For instance Nintendo got over the years less and less competition in the handheld space. It is not Sony alone who abandoned it, in the past Nintendo saw competition from Atari (Lynx), Sega (GameGear, Nomad), Bandai (Wonderswan). But by now the market is mostly abandoned. This is a niche the Switch has mostly alone. You could also define niches with game genres, but there the waters are much more muddy. But I noticed while 3rd-party mostly abandoned WiiU, they still brought platformers, so that probably means WiiU attracted platform-gamers.

So does Switch compete with PS and Xbox? I think it does a little. They have not exactly the same market/customers, but there is overlap. I think for many Switch works as a complementary product to another console. So I think that they only slightly impact each others sales curve. But think of it this way: Would it impact Switch sales, if Playstation and Xbox leave the market? I am pretty sure it would. Would it impact Playstation and Xbox sales if Nintendo would go bankrupt? Yes, it probably would. Not all customers would jump ship in these cases, some might stop gaming or switch to PC or streaming. But there would be a substantial amount of customers taking the product left available. And that means they are competing and are all in a red ocean.

I think you underestimate both. And consider: record sales need a whole generation for it to happen. Cloud gaming might not be enough to siphon away much customers now, but in two years? I think your 10 year timeframe is wishful thinking.

Also consider: to make PS5 sell less than PS4, these other propositions don't need to take over the whole customer base. If Playstation loses 10-20 million customers, they already fall short of PS4 sales. Will Series X/S, streaming services and PC+Gamepass do that combined? I am pretty sure.

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

No, those are next year numbers. I did forget 2020 holidays so yeah 115 -120 would be the new figure.

i dont know if you realize, but Stadia has far bigger reach than Xcloud could ever dream of (integrated into Every single Chrome Browser excluding iOS, as well as every Android Phone, not to mention being Made by Google, the face of the internet itself) and it still a laughing stock in the industry, unless the internet becomes so incredibly fast that you literally stream the game files at HDD speed at the very least (unlike streaming a laggy video signal with even laggier input) then i dont see it becoming a thing, 10 years isnt wishful thinking, its about how ridiculously early Cloud Gaming are, the industry were talking about mobile gaming being a bigger impact since 2000 and yet it only started taking off when the iPhone Appstore launched in 2008

Oh and if your worried too much for Sony, they already got PSNow which literally uses the same Cloud Services as Xcloud (Microsoft Azure).

If we go by your assumption that PS5 would lose its customers because of Gamepass, cloud Gaming then why The Switch is having a record breaking year despite no alternative to Gamepass/Cloud Gaming and  with 60$ for 7 year old ports? 

Because Exclusives is what Drives Platforms, Not Services, or Devaluing Games in a subscription Services, even Apple Arcade doesn’t make a dent to the Switch Performace

Stadia and Luna are dead the moment Xbox Game Pass Streaming is pre-installed in every Windows 10 PC, which should be happening next year. They will also upgrades their blades to Series X hardware, having Game Pass better specs than Stadia and Luna.

Phil Spencer has also said they will launch an Xbox streaming stick and a TV app for Game Pass in 2021. They have partnered up with Facebook to have xCloud integration on Instagram and Facebook Gaming in the form of tags for games that let you have a free trial for games on your device.

And the collection of games is simply much better on Game Pass. Stadia and Luna have to step up their game or they'll be destroyed within 2 or 3 years.

You are obviously spoiled by the game industry, thinking that a product not successful in the first ten seconds has failed. But game industry in large parts is ridiculously front loaded. But that statement isn't even true. Only parts of the game industry is ridiculously frontloaded. Indie games can take off and reach millions of users years after their release. Mobile games usually aren't front loaded as much. And if we look in the past - video games also didn't tended to be that front loaded. The success or failure on release is an exception, not the rule for markets.

Technically cloud gaming is there. Look reviews of even sceptical gamers that tried some cloud service, and the common theme is how surprised they are how well it works. Sure, it is dependent on good internet connection. But as I said, to change the market cloud service don't need to dominate, they only need to win over a 10-20 million customers. And there are enough fast internet connections to achieve that.

Google made some blunders with Stadia, but they weren't connected to technical issues. The problem is the lack of first party games, Google acquired studios and founded some themself, but have so far nothing to show, yet still released. First party Google games will come in the future. For the moment Stadia is fine, it has a stable userbase. In April the app was going past 1 million downloads. Remember, they offered the Pro tier free for a limited time back then, but started the real free tier Base at a later point. So users may be bigger by now. Stadia also receives regular 3rd-party games ( still no first-party), so it is still rolling. I think Google can sustain this for years, until they decide to invest seriously into enticing first-party offerings. To be precise, they must have first party games in development, they ust release at some point. But to make it clear that the current state of Stadia is all Googgles fault: apparently currently 26 people work for Stadia. 26! If they get a million customers with 26 employees, what can Stadia do if Google decides to invest in the platform for serious?

Now, inhowfar xcloud and Luna avoid the same mistakes is yet to see. But that between the three of them 10-20 million customers can be assembled in two years, that seems quite possible.

And I think these offerings are in competition to Switch too. As I repeatedly tell here, all this stuff isn't taking much customers away *right now*, but in two to three years I expect them to make a dent into console sales.