Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Farsala said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is an estimate (in millions) by region:

	Japan	NA	EU	RoW	Total
Switch	37	58	49	26	170

I've answered your request.  Now I have a request too.  You can criticize my numbers if you like, but you have to come up with a better argument than, "I just don't think it's going to sell that much."

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff.  You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff.  You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters.  That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m.  You are just making a big cliff argument.

The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded.   1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year.  Switch is obviously peaking this year.

Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less.  Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday.  So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m.  Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m.  Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.

You really need to evaluate your argument again.  You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.