Likewise, we already know a lot about the PS5 in late 2020. It's a straight-forward follow-up to the PS4, so the chances that the PS5 will appeal to a broader audience than the PS4 are very slim. One opportunity for growth is to take consumers away from Xbox which appeals to the very same group of gamers, but what we know about Xbox Series X is that this gen multiplats aren't going to be notably inferior in terms of framerate and resolution, plus Microsoft has been expanding their first party studios; this makes it tough for Sony to convince Xbox One owners to go for the PS brand.
1- it could appeal to Low-Tier PC gamers who cant afford new RTX cards, as well as the console design being overly fashionable that it might be considered a fitting piece of Furniture in your TV setting (which would be more appealing to Female audiences, the new Dualsense design is another example)
2- Have you seen Digital Foundry’s comparisons in performance ? , not that it matters anyway, PS3 had a supercomputer for CPU and was outsold by Wii, original Xbox was a monster in Performance but was utterly crushed by PS2 in sales, IMO Xbone being weaker than PS4 had little to no impact on xbone being a failure (since Xbox one X Exists and wasn’t effective sales-wise).
3- the Series X/S will never outsell PS5 Period, Not even in NA (1.2M PS5 vs 780K Series X/S at launch in US alone) if content is king then Exclusivity is Gold, thats why a Certain 299$ Console with PS3 level of performance keeps selling like hotcake, so unless Microsoft puts actual Exclusive content into the Series X/S then i dont see myself or anyone who owns a PC ever getting Xbox, not even Gamepass is exclusive to the console.
to me the Xbox One with all its PR Nightmares could’ve outsold the Xbox 360 and even reach PS4 sales in longterm (like when PS3 outsold the 360 at the end of 7th gen), if it wasnt for Microsoft giving up completely on providing exclusive content to Xbox (comparable to 360).
this only leaves us to PS5 vs PS4, assuming Japan life time sales would be 6 million (as per your estimate) it would only mean a -2 Million, not only is it a small hurdle, but very irrelevant when it comes to international growth, considering that currently the PS4 has outsold the PS3 by 27M+ despite being -2M compared to PS3 in Japanese sales.
4-keeping the momentum is a major aspect when it comes to growth, but its even more impactful when it involves more innovation like the move from PS1 (103M) to PS2 (157M) or from GBA (82M) to DS (154M)
The same could be said to 3DS (75M) to Switch (potential 140M) as momentum and innovation goes hand to hand to convince the current audience (and new potential ones) to buy your new system.
now back to PS5, not only they kept the momentum with the PS4 Success, but also packing in an innovative controller and new UI as well as great 1st party support at launch (with one being Exclusive), And while Microsoft have made a really great hardware it honestly felt more like an upgrade than being a next Gen console (going as far as Unifying their boxarts), not to its bad, just not as impactful as PS5 or Switch Transition from previous gen imo.
And it all shows with PS5 being the best selling console at launch in history !, with demands thats just unheard off since the Wii launch.
The only way i could see PS5 having less broad audience than PS4 is if Sony’s either done a Don-Mattrick level of F#$% up or Xcloud and Cloud Gaming becoming seriously viable which i dont see it anytime soon, not even the next 5+ years (no matter how the tech is improved, you’ll still be screwed by Data-cap) Honestly I’m more concerned about Apple Silicone tech than Cloud Gaming.
TLDR; No,PS5 Wont Reach The Switch Life-Time Sales, the Series X/S will never outsell PS5 anywhere including the US, and assuming if PS5 sales declined by 2M in japan, then sony could easily overcome that hurdle by the growing its brand in the developing markets, especially the Middle east and China.
.Last edited by B6a6es - on 03 December 2020