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Forums - Sales - January 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

So less than 200k for PS5 and ~180k for Switch 2?

I think the best comparison we have regarding the first post-holiday month are 3DS (233k) and NS1 (246k) according to VG Data, SW2 is significantly bellow both

Seems like the market is struggling to support so many high priced consoles

PS5 is likely 190K or a little below that with Switch 2 around what you said. Xbox Series did better than I was expecting (70K-75K) even if sales are still bad. Switch 1 is flatlining with sales at like ~30K. Crazy Switch 1 can sell as much or nearly as much in one week in Japan as it did for an entire month in the US. 

I'm still running the numbers with Machina, so our estimates once posted might be a little different than that. There is a little bit of room depending on sales of other devices like the NEX and PC portables as those are counted in Circana's hardware totals. 

What are we basing the Switch 2 numbers off of? I get the other numbers but I don't understand how you were able to figure out the Switch 2 numbers.



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I know this is not directly related to the topic but there is big news for Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Trump tariffs are illegal. This means that the govenment will have to pay those companies back... and it also means we could start to see so real price drops for the consoles!



CosmicSex said:

I know this is not directly related to the topic but there is big news for Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Trump tariffs are illegal. This means that the govenment will have to pay those companies back... and it also means we could start to see so real price drops for the consoles!

399$ Switch 2 and PS5 incoming!

Long live Gaming!



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Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

CosmicSex said:

I know this is not directly related to the topic but there is big news for Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Trump tariffs are illegal. This means that the govenment will have to pay those companies back... and it also means we could start to see so real price drops for the consoles!

The Memory situation right now is far worse than the tariffs were for console hardware. Not to mention he's now enacted global 10% tariffs under a different provision.

Definitely not going to see price drops this year, even if there were zero tariffs I still expect to see prices going up.



CosmicSex said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 is likely 190K or a little below that with Switch 2 around what you said. Xbox Series did better than I was expecting (70K-75K) even if sales are still bad. Switch 1 is flatlining with sales at like ~30K. Crazy Switch 1 can sell as much or nearly as much in one week in Japan as it did for an entire month in the US. 

I'm still running the numbers with Machina, so our estimates once posted might be a little different than that. There is a little bit of room depending on sales of other devices like the NEX and PC portables as those are counted in Circana's hardware totals. 

What are we basing the Switch 2 numbers off of? I get the other numbers but I don't understand how you were able to figure out the Switch 2 numbers.

We have total hardware revenue and the order of all platforms including the NEX and PC portables in terms of units and dollar sales from Mat. We are able to input the numbers for PS5, XS, and NS1 with an average selling price to get the total hardware revenue for those platforms and knowing the order gives us a rough idea of the total revenue for the NEX and PC portables. The leftover range puts NS2 not far behind the PS5.

As far as the tariffs Trump has used another law to implement a 10% tariff on EVERY country worldwide, which is enforceable for 150 days. Afterwards congress has to approve to continue it. previous tariff on Vietnam was 10%, which is where a lot of the PS5s and Switches are manufactured.

Plus there is the huge increase in the price of memory. So, even if these new tariffs die in 150 days that would only help offset the increasing memory prices.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:
CosmicSex said:

What are we basing the Switch 2 numbers off of? I get the other numbers but I don't understand how you were able to figure out the Switch 2 numbers.

We have total hardware revenue and the order of all platforms including the NEX and PC portables in terms of units and dollar sales from Mat. We are able to input the numbers for PS5, XS, and NS1 with an average selling price to get the total hardware revenue for those platforms and knowing the order gives us a rough idea of the total revenue for the NEX and PC portables. The leftover range puts NS2 not far behind the PS5.

As far as the tariffs Trump has used another law to implement a 10% tariff on EVERY country worldwide, which is enforceable for 150 days. Afterwards congress has to approve to continue it. previous tariff on Vietnam was 10%, which is where a lot of the PS5s and Switches are manufactured.

Plus there is the huge increase in the price of memory. So, even if these new tariffs die in 150 days that would only help offset the increasing memory prices.

Wow what a d-bag move.  Thanks for the Switch 2 explainer. 



trunkswd said:
CosmicSex said:

What are we basing the Switch 2 numbers off of? I get the other numbers but I don't understand how you were able to figure out the Switch 2 numbers.

We have total hardware revenue and the order of all platforms including the NEX and PC portables in terms of units and dollar sales from Mat. We are able to input the numbers for PS5, XS, and NS1 with an average selling price to get the total hardware revenue for those platforms and knowing the order gives us a rough idea of the total revenue for the NEX and PC portables. The leftover range puts NS2 not far behind the PS5.

As far as the tariffs Trump has used another law to implement a 10% tariff on EVERY country worldwide, which is enforceable for 150 days. Afterwards congress has to approve to continue it. previous tariff on Vietnam was 10%, which is where a lot of the PS5s and Switches are manufactured.

Plus there is the huge increase in the price of memory. So, even if these new tariffs die in 150 days that would only help offset the increasing memory prices.

100% congress is going to revoke that after 150 days now that the Supreme Court ruled the tarffis are illegal to begin with. 

Just on brand for Trump to throw a tantrum like a baby.



Xbox Series held up better than expected though its sales are low enough it doesn't really matter. Doesn't seem be a strong month overall though if spending was barely up YoY even if a new popular system is now out. Even hardware spending didn't grow by that much really and the Switch 2 sold less than the PS5 even though this is its worst January yet so not an ideal result there. It's doing very well in Japan though so some slack in the US isn't too bad as long as its temporary.

Last edited by Norion - 4 hours ago

What's the verdict for FFVII remake? Good debut?



Farsala said:

What's the verdict for FFVII remake? Good debut?

FF7 was number 9 for the month up from 235 so a respectable showing.