No it won't. Not a chance. With Switch 2 out, PS6 releasing in November 2027 (as usual) and PS5 selling a bit slower than PS4,it won't sell another 37m. But it will ger close. Still much less than the Switch 2 will sell in its lifetime.

That's absolutely wild. 11m with what's likely to be the biggest video game launch of all time in GTA6? That as far as we know is only launching that year on PS5 and dead xbox hardware? Yikes. There's no way PS5 is dropping that hard next year.

Even with prices as bad as they are, PS5 isn't dropping one inch next year. I just don't see that happening with 6+ months of GTA6. Temporary deals and GTA6 might be enough to actually push it close to 18 million or more.

PS5 should also have a strong lineup of 1st party games, and potentially FromSoftware's next main game but I expect that to release in 2027 and whoop the competition (minus COD and GTA6 in sales of course).

To put your post into perspective, the PS3 sold 12M copies in 2012, the equivalent year to 2026 for the PS5.

2012 was a year with pretty much no relevant games released. The Xbox 360 was in direct competition selling 11M as well.

You expect the PS5 to sell less than that.

And on top of that, that was only 2.5M drop from it's peak year. PS5's peak year was 21.4M. Or 2012 was 82% of the peak year for the PS3. I think 15M is the absolute floor for 2026 PS5 year. And this is in the worst possible scenario

If the PS5 sells 15M in 2025, it'll sell more than that in 2026.

Unless the pricing keeps getting higher and higher until December 2026, it won't sell less.

Yes, that is what I am saying. The worst possible scenario is 15M. It will most likely do between 16 to 20M, just because of GTA VI. (assuming no more pricehikes are done).

This thread is hilarious. GtA 6 isn't just some game. It will for a period of time outshine the entire industry and will be the greatest entertainment release of all time.. The PS5 WILL outsell the Switch 2 next year and it won't be close. Given the current state of everything at this moment, you should absolutely expect the PS5 to pass the PS4.

Sony will 100% bundle the game and there is a battery of dozens of millions of PS4 gamers, PC gamers and just people in general who will show up for this game and that's just objectively true.

Other thing is, that PS5 is almost equal to PS4 sales by this point in time so far, with price hikes, and higher initial price even. With that they have one more card to play, they didn't with PS4 - price cut. And with the price hikes it can do even two. One they can cut it by 100$ in let's say next year or 2027, and second they can cut it one more by 50$ or 100$, in 2029, 2030, when we are 2 years into the PS6. I know the chances are not big nowadays for this, but still. If that could be possible card for the Switch and Nintendo since many people talk about that, and it should be for the PS5 as well. At least a possibility.

Also, are we counting the portable PS5 in total PS5 sales? If so its gonna obliterate the PS4 in sales. On second thought i think the device will also play PS6 games so it might not be right to classify it as a PS5.