Im expecting 120-140M If nintendo releases cheaper SKUs
Lifetime sales expectations? | |||
| Under 80M | 4 | 5.48% | |
| 80-120M | 27 | 36.99% | |
| 120-140M | 27 | 36.99% | |
| 140-160M | 6 | 8.22% | |
| 160M+ | 9 | 12.33% | |
| Total: | 73 | ||
Im expecting 120-140M If nintendo releases cheaper SKUs
My current thinking is abit lower than the first switch.
So I think Switch 2, ends up around 140m or so.
Will be fun looking back at this, in like 5-7 years from now.
I think the gaming market is growing not shrinking based on revenue seen world wide out of all of the video game sectors. So 120M+ is my expectation. I also think the nexgen ps6 hybrid will do very well.

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PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2
I was previously thinking 130M, but with a price hike, potential further price hikes, and the legs not being as good as I had expected - I’ll say 100-110M.
I did vote 120-140m in this poll back when it started. But right now I'm very pessimistic about gaming hardware over the next few years lol.
I'm expecting further price rises to be announced before the end of the fiscal year. They might hold back till after the holidays before raising it.
At this price point it will be more difficult to convince households to have more than one Switch2. I would say between 100-120m
So, like the PS5/PS6, the Switch 2's fortunes are tied directly to market conditions that it doesn't actually have any control over. I feel fortunate to have gotten a Switch 2 for what will probably be the cheapest prices it will ever be (same with the PRO which I got for sub 400 USD with a PS5 trade). On that note, I want to say that I don't see a anything that makes AI worth it when you consider how much more expensive it is making other things. Thats to say, I don't see how cost to consumers will ever produce a net postive cash flow in the direction of the enduser. Its like a march into madness. And now, its gotten so bad, I'm worred that when it pops, its gonna take down more than just a few AI startups.
I'd still say that 80m - 120m is a pretty safe bet. Price hikes will certainly have an effect, but there is no hardware (other than Series S) that can come close to Switch 2's price if someone is looking to buy a modern system. And that's before the prospects of a S2 Lite arriving.
Last edited by archbrix - on 20 July 2026