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Forums - Sales - Which System Will Ship More Units in Calendar Year 2025 Worldwide: Switch 2 or PS5?

 

Which System Will Ship More Units in Calendar Year 2025 Worldwide?

Nintendo Switch 2 73 56.59%
 
PlayStation 5 56 43.41%
 
Total:129
XtremeBG on 20 April 2025
archbrix said:

@Torpoleon is talking official shipment numbers, to which he's correct:

Honestly, without GTA6 this year I'd give the PS5 <17m and I think it would be much closer than some people think between it and Switch 2.

He was talking about sales, and besides .. the thread is about sell more not ship more .. so we should talk about pure sold numbers here. And he talked about calendar year for Switch 2, which means it should compare the sold units to the calendar Switch 2017 year.

Torpoleon said:

Just so we're all clear, I am referring to Calendar Year 2025 and not Fiscal Year 2025. I figured it would be a good question and tight race, considering how NS1 sold in 2017 (even though NS2 has less time, it has a lot of hype, potential FOMO with price increases and a brand new Mario Kart) and the fact that PS5 sold 20m last year, and will likely only see a slight decrease this year if GTA VI is still on track for 2025.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 20 April 2025

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Jumpin on 20 April 2025
Zippy6 said:
Wyrdness said:

Switch 2 only has around 7 months this year compared to the full 12 PS5 will have, the former can outsell the latter and still not sell more overall units in the year as a result even if it sold as wildly as the Switch which did like 16m in 2017 but launched in March.

Yes if Switch 2 were to accomplish this it'd basically be doubling the previous record for fastest selling console of all time.

Sell-Through first 7 months (VGChartz):

Console First 7 Month Sell-through
PS5 8.96m
PS4 8.16m
Wii 7.77m
Switch 6.33m
Xbox Series 4.98m
Xbox One 4.40m
3DS 4.25m
WiiU 2.97m

Worth noting that Switch and 3DS here don't include a holiday season because of the time they launched, if we extend for holiday season:

Switch first 10 months: 13.12m
3DS first 11 months: 12.55m

I fully expect Switch 2 can sell over the 8.96m of the PS5, especially with it having a separate launch and holiday sales boost in it's first 7 months and nd Nintendo seems to have been building up stock for quite some time, but the roughly 18m in sales it would probably need to outsell ps5 for the full calendar year is unthinkable.

It took the Switch 16 months to reach 18m sales (sell-through), Switch 2 isn't doing that in less than half the time.

That's a great point to bring up. If Switch 2 does win, it would be an unprecedented sales record... or PS5 had a very unexpected sudden decline.

Evidence does not point to Nintendo Switch pulling it off this year, not without some sort of a paradigm shift in production and adoption time. And I don't think there's been any indication that's happening.

It's worth noting that Sony routinely over-estimates PS5 projections. Last year PS5 fell 4.8 million units below projections. But even if (probably more than worst case scenario) they were off by such a high number, they would still sell considerably more than any console has done in 7 months.



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Torpoleon on 20 April 2025

@XtremeBG I actually meant shipments. I just always tended to refer to it as "sales" when I am looking at the numbers console manufacturers report in their quarterly financial reports. I should probably try to break this habit lol.

Either way, I've updated the thread title again to clarify that I am referring to shipments (again, basically what they report on their quarterly financials).



zorg1000 on 20 April 2025

PS5.

PS4 outsold Switch in its first few years and Switch outsold PS5 in its first few years. PS5 will likely do the same to Switch 2.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Oneeee-Chan!!!2.0 on 25 April 2025

I think Nintendo will ship over 20 million Switch 2 this year.

https://thegamepost.com/report-nintendo-20-million-switch-2-sales/


Would Sony have made such a plan.



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Ashadelo on 25 April 2025

Honestly, it depends on how many systems Nintendo can get out there this year. They will sell whatever they can make



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JackHandy on 25 April 2025
IcaroRibeiro said:

PS5. 12 months vs 6 months. The only market where PS5 are are showing declining is Japan where its sales were already kinda irrelevant

PS5 should have no issue clearing 17-18 million this year even without GTA release


I don't see how can Switch 2 could sell more than 18 million in 6 months. Switch managed to sell 18 million in second half of 2020, but it had the pandemic helping sales


Now if we are talking about fiscal year ending March 2026, then it's Switch 2 unless GTA releases this year (which I don't think will happen, 2026 looks more likely)

GTA 6 should secure PS5's position in the market for 2025. Outside of Nintendo's IPs, it's one of the industries last megaton AAA, sure-fire bet.



CosmicSex on 25 April 2025
IcaroRibeiro said:

PS5. 12 months vs 6 months. The only market where PS5 are are showing declining is Japan where its sales were already kinda irrelevant

PS5 should have no issue clearing 17-18 million this year even without GTA release


I don't see how can Switch 2 could sell more than 18 million in 6 months. Switch managed to sell 18 million in second half of 2020, but it had the pandemic helping sales


Now if we are talking about fiscal year ending March 2026, then it's Switch 2 unless GTA releases this year (which I don't think will happen, 2026 looks more likely)

GTA will 100% release this year.  



JRPGfan on 25 April 2025
Oneeee-Chan!!!2.0 said:

I think Nintendo will ship over 20 million Switch 2 this year.

https://thegamepost.com/report-nintendo-20-million-switch-2-sales/


Would Sony have made such a plan.

this is Nintendo first fiscal year (for the switch), not the calendar year 2025.
Meaning in April 2026 (almost a full 1 year from its release or so, they will have shipped 20m units).

Nintendo arn't going to sell or ship, over 20m units in less than 6-7 months.
This is them saying they expect to do 20m the first FULL year (12m after its release date) of the Switch2, I think.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 25 April 2025

IcaroRibeiro on 25 April 2025
JackHandy said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

PS5. 12 months vs 6 months. The only market where PS5 are are showing declining is Japan where its sales were already kinda irrelevant

PS5 should have no issue clearing 17-18 million this year even without GTA release


I don't see how can Switch 2 could sell more than 18 million in 6 months. Switch managed to sell 18 million in second half of 2020, but it had the pandemic helping sales


Now if we are talking about fiscal year ending March 2026, then it's Switch 2 unless GTA releases this year (which I don't think will happen, 2026 looks more likely)

GTA 6 should secure PS5's position in the market for 2025. Outside of Nintendo's IPs, it's one of the industries last megaton AAA, sure-fire bet.

It is but I think people overestimate how much a single game impact hardware sales. The impact of game is generally diluted for months before and after the game launch. GTA VI is already impacting PS5 baseline sales since it was announced to be console exclusive, many people buy consoles in advance knowing a game is coming. This is why console makers make sure to announce new games as early as possible. Not only to farm money from pre orders, but also to keep console sales healthy even when there is no relevant release