After doing better than expected last week the Switch drops down to 25k. I said before that it's possible the next decline could be somewhat delayed but it could also be fast so the Switch could consistently be sub 20k by May if this isn't another week 11 though consistently below 30k that month is probably more likely. The PS5 dropping below 9k again is rough and May in general is gonna be rough and potentially the worst month for the Japanese games market in a very long time. It'll be followed by a fantastic one though and June 2025 till the end of this decade should be a pretty strong period for it.

Also with how much of worldwide Switch sales Japan makes up it's likely already doing sub 100k a week worldwide currently so similar to how the 3DS sold a couple months before the Switch came out. With backwards compatibility being a factor this time there's a chance it starts selling worse than the 3DS did in 2017 later this year.

With how the Switch 2 is trending 2m isn't really feasible. About 1.5m is my expectation though in the end Tbone will still be pretty close.

In a few weeks Switch will have its lowest YTD numbers, when finally 2017 will overtake it. Clearly last year that the Switch will be relevant in Japan.

With the Switch 2 launching in two months and with the price in Japan being pretty decent, there is no real question as to why Switch sales would drop. It just makes sense.

With how the Switch 2 is trending 2m isn't really feasible. About 1.5m is my expectation though in the end Tbone will still be pretty close.

With that numbers from the table yes. But with the initial title of his thread of 40M, no. It should end somewhere around 37M. Also, the Switch 2 reveal simply had delayed effect on the Switch 1. Not right away, but a week later. It will be interesting to see what baseline it will have, first till the release, and then after that till end of the year.

The thread said 40m cause a small portion of Switch sales aren't tracked by Famitsu so currently it's actually higher than 35.5m since at the last quarter report shipments to Japan were at nearly 37m when Famitsu said just under 35m and the gap between shipments and consoles sold to consumers is of course not 2m in Japan. I sometimes forget about that and we'll need to give it a couple more weeks since it's possible this is just an unusually low April week like 11 was for March but it's for sure not a good sign to already hit another low point for the year.

AFAIK, a lot of Switch systems are being shipped from Japan by resellers to other Asian countries due to the weak Yen, and Famitsu has been counting most of them. But perhaps not all if the gap is this large?