We aren't discussing the factors of why Switch started outpacing the PS4 but from which point exactly started to do so. And the pandemic was the first one. The Animal crossing was after that, and other reasons after that. But only the first reason is important here, since we are talking from a point in time. I haven't go on to list all the reasons, only since when. Also I didn't chose the pandemic to use, @killer7 did. So I answered to him with the same date point. And by coincidence it also happens to be the exact point from which Switch skyrocketed and begun outselling PS4 every month (if we are looking launch and holiday aligned, if it's not aligned, then of course Switch started outselling it 2019, but he said launch aligned in his post, that's why I intervene). So why choosing other, when he already chose one ? (also it's a lot more easier to just thought of the pandemic, than it is to go and check the exact release date of the game). So all the extra information was not needed. I haven't doubted the reasons, or what helped and what didn't, or why.

It was successful, but it wasn't outpacing the PS4 constantly. That was my only point. Not if it is the reason, or if it helped others. Also about the XB1 and PS4, the pandemic helped them as well. If you don't know they were starting the year worse than 2019, but once the pandemic hit, they both got boosted for a few months and at one point were even up year on year or flat, I remember that. However that resulted in weaker than what otherwise would've been second half of the year. So the pandemic helped all the consoles in the first half of 2020. It helped PS4 and XB1, and it helped the Switch as well.

Hmm…it looks to me that NSW closed the gap by 1mil btwn the launch of NSWLite [September 2019] & February 2020. The pandemic only accelerated the shrink. Wasn’t much movement for the first chunk of 2019, though the Lite model certainly shifted things in favor of NSW. Regardless of the pandemic, NSW would’ve certainly outpaced PS4 during 2020/2021 based off the trajectory.

PS4 was considerably down in 2019 from 2018 and that was before Covid. The pandemic only strenghtend that trend. If the Switch benefitted from Covid, why not PS4? I mean the PS4 sold what? Around 5 million in 2020?! No one can tell me that Sony was not able to produce more, Covid or not. Why was Nintendo able to produce 28 million Switch systems at the same time despite it needing more components like the LCD screen? And Nintendo is a way smaller company ghan Sony. Sony wanted to move on quite fast that also shows PS4s discontinuation in march 2022... Xbox one was axed as early as the end of 2020 shortly after the XSX and the XSS launched.

I agree, but my point was about outpacing it constantly every month, without PS4 beating the Switch at all. This was from the pandemic onwards. in 2019 the Switch progress was constantly up and down towards PS4 since there were months PS4 came on top (again holiday aligned or the table I just did). The trend ended after the last time PS4 came on top - February 2020. From March on (or from the pandemic) Switch constantly outsell it with no return to the old level or PS4 beating it.

I agree with everything. But what I started discussing was about launch aligned since you wrote it that way. PS4 and XB1 too benefited but they were about to be replaced so they didnt had so much potential for growth in 2020 as the Switch. PS4 sold 8.5M in 2020 and 14M in 2019. Switch started outselling it from 2019 onwards, but if we launch or holiday aligned it then 2020, since in 2019 it was more of a tie until the holidays. If we dont aligned it then the Switch started beating the PS4 from 2019 onwards

Any time anyone brings up the COVID boost for Switch I will counter with the Animal Crossing boost for Switch. That game was going to be amazingly successful and sell a TON of hardware whether we were locked down or not. Maybe not the 45 million it has sold, but certainly 25-30 million, same as a Pokemon, Zelda, Mario, or Smash. It's in the same category and has been for quite a while. I know the Switch certainly received a bit of help, but it isn't like the Switch was floundering and was saved by a global health crisis. And the hype levels for ACNH were at a fever pitch long before most had even heard of a coronovirus, let alone COVID 19.

I think it will do well. It'll basically continue the Switch's success, but without the covid bump and without the early, starving fan base that existed for the Switch because the Wii U flopped. If it's on the market for the same length of time, I think it will significantly under-sell Switch. But, it'll still be a big number.

If I had to put an exact number on it, I'd go at 100 million.

While COVID clearly did have a massive impact (as opposed to the factually baseless competing hypothesis of "Animal Crossing did it!"), I do want to point out that the Switch was already pulling ahead of the PS4 in the U.S. in its third year. The Switch sold about 1.5M more units in its first three calendar years than the PS4 did, nearly all of that due to the Switch's 2019 being significantly better than the PS4's 2016 (6.5M vs. 5.1M). Hard to say whether the Switch's baseline after everything was reopened and stimulus money dried up was sheer inertia from the COVID bump or if it was a natural sales level it would have had regardless, but in any case there's a good argument to be had that the Switch could have outsold the PS4 in the U.S. by a few million units even had COVID not been a thing. There's no way to know for certain, but it is a matter of fact that the Switch was starting to outpace the PS4 in the U.S. before COVID hit.

Data from the CESA White Paper suggest a similar trajectory in Canada, with the Switch starting to pull ahead in 2019.

In Japan, it was always incredibly lopsided in the Switch's favor regardless of any external factors. There was no possible scenario where the Switch wouldn't have outsold the PS4 by a three-to-one margin lifetime or close to it.

Europe was the only one of the three major markets where the Switch was lagging behind the PS4, which would have dragged the global total down in the PS4's favor. Even during & after COVID, the Switch never quite able to catch up to the PS4 in Europe.

As always, global sales don't always tell us the whole picture. It's like the 360 vs. the PS3. Sure, they ended up in a near tie, but that was purely a coincidence because of how the major markets shook up. The PS3 did sell at an overall faster rate worldwide, but it was incredibly lopsided in the 360's favor in NA & the UK, with the PS3 making up for it in continental Europe and Japan.

Without COVID, I think the Switch could have at least tied the PS4 globally if not beaten it by a decent margin (say, 10-15M). But again there's no way to know for sure.

I feel like the U.S. tariffs will play a huge part of how successful the device will people, everything is so uncertain at the moment.

@PortisheadBiscuit There were tariffs put in place in 2019 though too.

Regarding the discussion about a covid boost, I would say that definitely the Switch did have a covid boost, but without it, the system likely would've still comfortably outsold the PS4. Maybe not the possibility of 160m, but probably more around 140m, maybe 150m. Without the pandemic, we likely would've gotten a Switch Pro, and several titles like TOTK & Splatoon 3 might have launched sooner. There also wouldn't be shortages due to supply chain disruptions.