Switch 2 Sales Predictions: Next PS2 or Wii U Disaster?

[XtremeBG]

firebush03 said:

Do you have a table for the launch aligned numbers? (Or rather, would you be able to share? Knowing you, i have no doubt you’ve got them somewhere lol.) To me, it looks like NSW started closing in on PS4 right around the start of 2019, with the gap really starting to close with NSWLite [Sept 2019] and later COVID.

Table for launch aligned, no, since there was such a chart from trunks on the sales articles which run till November 2022. There it can be seen how for 3 years one came on top of the other, and in 2020 with the Covid boost, Switch skyrocketed. The corresponding year (holiday aligned) to 2019 for PS4 was 2016. Monthly they were doing very close, but the holiday was stronger for the Switch, just after the Lite launched. Monthly based outside of holidays, Switch started to constantly outsell the PS4 corresponding period in 2020. For most of 2019 until the holidays it was like a tie, one month for PS4, one for Switch.

Date	PS4 monthly	PS4 Total	NSW monthly	NSW Total	Difference monthly	Difference total
2016/2019	858,262	36,859,407	1,147,851	30,640,213	+289,589	-6,219,194
February	1,041,757	37,901,164	972,378	31,612,591	-69,379	-6,288,573
March	1,131,421	39,032,585	1,166,591	32,779,182	+35,170	-6,253,403
April	719,414	39,751,999	785,233	33,564,415	+65,819	-6,187,584
May	793,290	40,545,289	720,538	34,284,953	-72,752	-6,260,336
June	1,027,496	41,572,785	1,080,920	35,365,873	+53,424	-6,206,912
July	780,466	42,353,251	884,171	36,250,044	+103,705	-6,103,207
August	786,762	43,140,013	737,001	36,987,045	-49,761	-6,152,968
September	1,497,905	44,637,918	1,814,562	38,801,607	+316,657	-5,836,311
October	1,342,030	45,979,948	1,212,657	40,014,264	-129,373	-5,965,684
November	3,223,910	49,203,858	1,972,881	41,987,145	-1,251,029	-7,216,713
December	4,609,141	53,812,999	6,833,525	48,820,670	+2,224,384	-4,992,329
2017/2020	1,161,413	54,974,412	1,549,926	50,370,596	+388,513	-4,603,816
February	1,273,065	56,247,477	1,041,597	51,412,193	-231,468	-4,835,284
March	1,492,148	57,739,625	2,958,459	54,370,652	+1,466,311	-3,368,973
April	982,423	58,722,048	2,028,155	56,398,807	+1,045,732	-2,323,241
May	1,124,866	59,846,914	1,602,817	58,001,624	+477,951	-1,845,290
June	1,501,027	61,347,941	1,881,685	59,883,309	+380,658	-1,464,632
July	1,139,006	62,486,947	1,553,438	61,436,747	+414,432	-1,050,200
August	1,038,948	63,525,895	1,674,087	63,110,834	+635,139	-415,061
September	1,389,603	64,915,498	2,156,034	65,266,868	+766,431	+351,370
October	1,189,871	66,105,369	2,077,924	67,344,792	+888,053	+1,239,423
November	3,503,646	69,609,015	3,729,096	71,073,888	+225,450	+1,464,873
December	3,909,512	73,518,527	6,207,558	77,281,446	+2,298,046	+3,762,919

Do you see how in 2016/2019 for PS4/Switch they follow each other with positive and negative difference ? and how in 2020/2017 after March, everything is in the side of Switch ? That's what I mean by constantly outselling it every month.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 01 February 2025