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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

Switch is actually UP YoY AND passes the PS2 in the US?!?

Even with the impending announcement and building hype for Switch 2, the OG is still going strong!!



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Yep.. Xbox is on the way out. Congratulations Sony fans, you WILL be paying $700 for a discless Playstation 6..



chakkra said:

Yep.. Xbox is on the way out. Congratulations Sony fans, you WILL be paying $700 for a discless Playstation 6..

There is always PC, if these consoles start getting too expensive.
The thing is, everything is getting more expensive, these days.

I'm curious if Nintendo aim for 399$ again.
Last time, with the switch they wanted good returns on BoM and selling the hardware.
If Switch 2, is as powerful as we hope, that might squeeze them into the 450$ range,
(unless they are willing to accept selling at slightly less earned pr sale of unit than the switch).

At 700$ for a PS6, that still sounds like good value, if your competition is the older PS5 and the Switch 2, in terms of bang for buck.



JRPGfan said:
chakkra said:

Yep.. Xbox is on the way out. Congratulations Sony fans, you WILL be paying $700 for a discless Playstation 6..

There is always PC, if these consoles start getting too expensive.
The thing is, everything is getting more expensive, these days.

I'm curious if Nintendo aim for 399$ again.
Last time, with the switch they wanted good returns on BoM and selling the hardware.
If Switch 2, is as powerful as we hope, that might squeeze them into the 450$ range,
(unless they are willing to accept selling at slightly less earned pr sale of unit than the switch).

At 700$ for a PS6, that still sounds like good value, if your competition is the older PS5 and the Switch 2, in terms of bang for buck.

Nobody is interested in the PC. 

The possibility of PS6 being digital only is growing more each passing month as ~70% and growing software sales are digital. I am afraid that Nintendo will be the last man standing with physical for at least another 2 generations...



Guys did the NPD sales numbers for last year November 2023 include the sales numbers on Black Friday? Because if it didn't that would make sense why the Switch is essentially flat compared to last year despite being older since this year would've included the critical Black Friday sales that last year's didn't have.

I remember November 2023's NPD being a notoriously big drop over 40% for the Switch. That's why I'm wondering about that.

Also it really looks like Xbox is dying, even with the Xbox One Microsoft used to be neck & neck with the PS4 in U.S sales, but now it seems like PS is dominating the only competitive region Xbox has which is the U.S. I know Microsoft doesn't prioritize hardware sales anymore, but damn they still matter if you want people to get into the Xbox Gamepass ecosystem especially more than PC.



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Congrats to the Switch!  It's already taken the top spot of all time in Japan and now it is #2 in the US.  Only the DS is left for the Switch to pass in the US.  It will be interesting to see if it can pull it off when all is said and done.

JRPGfan said:


I'm curious if Nintendo aim for 399$ again.

When did they aim for $399 the first time?



Sephiran said:
Phenomajp13 said:

I gotta say I have been feeling for awhile that the gaming industry will look very different in the distant future but things are looking worse than I initially imagined. I do believe we are witnessing the end of Xbox as a platform like this but i thought it would take atleast another three generations for Xbox to completely collapse or make its final transition (PC gaming only). Microsoft should shift to being more like Steam as a gaming platform. Microsoft's strengthens are in PC gaming and PC gaming is really beginning to take away all of the advantages console gaming once had. This would allow MS to remain competive while still growing in the gaming industy. Drop Xbox and instead bring in pre-built gaming PCs and PC handhelds, pitch them like gaming consoles selling brand controllers and all. Windows store and game pass will still be open to the entire market but of course offer incentives for your own hardware like cheaper gamepass and Windows. Microsoft should remain as a third party for the entire industry. The gaming market seems to be headed towards mobile (50% of all the gaming market), PC (second largest gaming market now and taking consumers from the tradition console market), and the console market (PS and Nintendo). Funny enough PS might become the platform with the least users in the distant future, that's actually hilarious when you look back on the history of the gaming industry.

Consoles have an uncertain future, the only thing i'm certain about is that Nintendo will be committed to consoles as long as they think consoles have a viable market, while Sony is already hetching their bets by putting their games on PC, meaning they will drop consoles before Nintendo does.

Corrected that for you. Sony as MS simply do not care if you buy an Xbox/ Playstation if you subscribe to their services and buy their games. Buy Horizon/ Halo. Where are you gonna play it? They simply don't care, but they want that you play them. Otherwise MS and Sony would not go this insane PC route.



I think Sony won't resign console market because it's thier main market and realising games on pc is just additional way to earn some money from games that already been realised on ps5 before. They are way more traditional like nintendo then Xbox.



Sony has a big infrastructure and internal resources focused in hardware development. Their increase in hardware prices are an evidence they are committed to be hardware makers, as their hardware helps them to make their software and services more popular and profitable. If you own a PC there is no point in subscribing for a PS Plus for example

That's why they are moving away from lower prices and instead are selling hardware at profit, just like Nintendo

I think with exception of Spider Man most of their single players first parties sells poorly on PCs (compared to PS5), PC sales are not necessary for Sony games to break even, or even to turn into profit. They are more advertising of Sonys brand and games, if anything. Sony is doing that because they probably already exhausted the pool of consumers on Playstation userbase.

During PS4 days Sony was almost giving away their first party games for free, anyone who was interested in Spider Man, Horizon or Uncharted could get them for dirty cheap, so Sony likely figured out if they want their IPs to keep growing there is no other way other than releasing them on PCs



javi741 said:

Guys did the NPD sales numbers for last year November 2023 include the sales numbers on Black Friday? Because if it didn't that would make sense why the Switch is essentially flat compared to last year despite being older since this year would've included the critical Black Friday sales that last year's didn't have.

I remember November 2023's NPD being a notoriously big drop over 40% for the Switch. That's why I'm wondering about that.

Also it really looks like Xbox is dying, even with the Xbox One Microsoft used to be neck & neck with the PS4 in U.S sales, but now it seems like PS is dominating the only competitive region Xbox has which is the U.S. I know Microsoft doesn't prioritize hardware sales anymore, but damn they still matter if you want people to get into the Xbox Gamepass ecosystem especially more than PC.

It seems a lot of people have trouble with using the easy and nice hardware by date tool here on the website.

Last year November sales were till 26th of November, which included Black Friday and the weekend after that. Last year Switch was down massively, compared to 2022. Which is the same case now when comparing it to 2022. But comparing it to 2023 US sales, sales were flat. The pure difference in numbers is 17k for this November, however this November the data is till 30th of November, last year the data was till November 26th. So it's not really that up year on year. Yes it's 4 weeks again, but 4 days where the sales are stronger were left out of last year's data for November, and are here for this November. If it were till end of November sales would probably be a bit down. Of course the final result is still very good for Switch, but it's not really up year over year when you take that into account, and also the fact that the sale offers were bigger for the system compared to last year. Also Xbox is a lot weaker, this also contribute to some chunk of the sales going to the Switch (of course most of them goes to the PS5).

However I expect December to be down compared to last year, since it has been down all year but November. But that is not something bad of course, it's normal for 8th year old console. People are getting so hyped up, it says up year on year, that they forget to make the calculations, and react like it's 20% up year on year for the whole holiday. 17k is not up, 17k difference is flat. It's so negligible it can't be really counted as up year on year. It's essentially flat because of the biggest sale offers to date for the Switch and the difference in the tracking dates. December will be from 1st unlike from 26th November like last year. Last year Switch did 1.3M in US for December.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 5 days ago

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