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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2024 VGChartz Estimates Thread -Worldwide Estimates Out Now

Panicradio said:

I think there's something wrong with the estimates.

In the June estimates, the PS5 stood at 59.3m globally. With August estimates, PS5 is "now" at 60.9m units globally.

That's a gap of only 1.6m globally within 2 full months.

Although July and August worldwide sell-through actually sit at ~1.9m combined. If you look at the ww estimates in the articles for July (~963k) and August (~898k) and add them up.

We had to adjust down the PS5 based on Sony's own official sell through figures. They have it at 56M+ as of April 30 which means it's below 57M as of that date. We had it above that figure before we adjusted it down.

https://sonyinteractive.com/en/our-company/business-data-sales/



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

PlayStation 5 sales compared to the same month a year ago are down by 535,979 (-37.4%). Xbox Series X|S sales are down by 162,679 units (-37.9%) and Nintendo Switch sales are down by 326,007 units (-33.9%). The PlayStation 4 is down by 16,380 units (-87.3%) year-over-year.

So Switch, the system that's well over 7 years old, has the smallest YOY drop of the current gen trio, interesting.

PS5 and XBS also have almost the exact same YOY drop. Did PS5 get a big boost last August that it's coming down from, or is this just due to last year being inflated by pent-up demand finally being met?



After a strong July for the PS5 and Xbox Series it's back to normal though not fully since the PS5 is down significantly more than usual and this was actually the worst August for the PS5 yet despite the stock issues of 2021 and 2022 and until now it had always been the 2nd best month so far for it aside from March being 3rd. Being over 50% down in Europe is bad even if it did super well that month last year and it's selling about the same there as it did back in 2022 when there was a severe stock issue which is not a good sign.

It's continuing to do somewhat better than the PS4 in the US which is a big deal but it collapsed in Japan in September so the next couple months could be rough with huge drops YoY. It is still selling well but with the way momentum for it is looking lately it's a good thing 2025 is near and I wonder how much bigger the drop would've been without Wukong.

Also Xbox Series is back to being down a lot but not unusually so though next month will be really tough for it and the Switch is about the same amount down as it was last month so it's currently on pace to be about a third down YoY by the end though September will help somewhat and it's possible it holds up better during the holidays.

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

PlayStation 5 sales compared to the same month a year ago are down by 535,979 (-37.4%). Xbox Series X|S sales are down by 162,679 units (-37.9%) and Nintendo Switch sales are down by 326,007 units (-33.9%). The PlayStation 4 is down by 16,380 units (-87.3%) year-over-year.

So Switch, the system that's well over 7 years old, has the smallest YOY drop of the current gen trio, interesting.

PS5 and XBS also have almost the exact same YOY drop. Did PS5 get a big boost last August that it's coming down from, or is this just due to last year being inflated by pent-up demand finally being met?

It's a mixture of pent up demand being met last year and the PS5 doing worse than usual this month.

Last edited by Norion - on 12 October 2024

Yeah PS5's recent collapse in Japan is gonna making outselling the PS4 challenging. Not impossible though; I expect this generation to last longer than the 8th so it could make up for lost ground later on, helped by Xbox's downfall.

I do wonder how long until PS4 manufacturing is discontinued, or if it's happened already, as sales have been at a trickle for a long time now.



curl-6 said:

Yeah PS5's recent collapse in Japan is gonna making outselling the PS4 challenging. Not impossible though; I expect this generation to last longer than the 8th so it could make up for lost ground later on, helped by Xbox's downfall.

I do wonder how long until PS4 manufacturing is discontinued, or if it's happened already, as sales have been at a trickle for a long time now.

Sony stopped reporting PS4 shipped figures in June 2022. This suggests it stopped being manufactured around that time. What's still selling is the last bit of unsold stock.

We plan to stop tracking the PS4 at the end of the year. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

Sony stopped reporting PS4 shipped figures in June 2022. This suggests it stopped being manufactured around that time. What's still selling is the last bit of unsold stock.

We plan to stop tracking the PS4 at the end of the year.

I still think PS4 numbers for the 2022 and 2023 year should be not just adjusted but entirely changed here, since the pattern it's not normal to me. Having 2.5M in 2021, then 240k in 2022 and upwards to 260k in 2023 ? 2024 is okay though as a down path to maybe 50k for the year. It should be something like 2.5M in 2021 to 400k in 2022 and 100k in 2023 and 50k in 2024, not the way it is now.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 12 October 2024

curl-6 said:

Yeah PS5's recent collapse in Japan is gonna making outselling the PS4 challenging. Not impossible though; I expect this generation to last longer than the 8th so it could make up for lost ground later on, helped by Xbox's downfall.

I do wonder how long until PS4 manufacturing is discontinued, or if it's happened already, as sales have been at a trickle for a long time now.

The collapse in Japan is not great, but I think the collapse in Europe will make it pretty much impossible.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch 2024 Americas Sales Comparison Charts Through August

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and two legacy platforms (PlayStation 4 and Xbox One) over comparable periods for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2021 – (January 2021 to August 2021)

2022 – (January 2022 to August 2022)

2023 – (January 2023 to August 2023)

2024 – (January 2024 to August 2024)

"Year to date" sales for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2024 versus 2023 and 2024 versus 2022 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 1.74 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.31 million units (-15.3%)

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch
    • 1.68 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 1.38 million units (-45.1%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 3.19 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.75 million units (-19.1%)
  • PlayStation 4
    • 8,883 units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 49,971 (-84.9%)

Note: VGChartz 2024 estimates through August includes 35 weeks, while 2023, 2022, and 2021 estimates includes 34 weeks.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

XtremeBG said:
trunkswd said:

Sony stopped reporting PS4 shipped figures in June 2022. This suggests it stopped being manufactured around that time. What's still selling is the last bit of unsold stock.

We plan to stop tracking the PS4 at the end of the year.

I still think PS4 numbers for the 2022 and 2023 year should be not just adjusted but entirely changed here, since the pattern it's not normal to me. Having 2.5M in 2021, then 240k in 2022 and upwards to 260k in 2023 ? 2024 is okay though as a down path to maybe 50k for the year. It should be something like 2.5M in 2021 to 400k in 2022 and 100k in 2023 and 50k in 2024, not the way it is now.

If you look at Japan sales PS4 went from 25K in 2022 to 71K in 2023. That is why there was an increase for 2023 when compared to 2022.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/462334/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2024-japan-sales-comparison-charts-through-august/



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

If you look at Japan sales PS4 went from 25K in 2022 to 71K in 2023. That is why there was an increase for 2023 when compared to 2022.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/462334/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2024-japan-sales-comparison-charts-through-august/

Still. PS4 is selling worldwide not only in Japan. So the other regions were not enough to make for a 400k in 2022 and 100k in 2023 (or some similar ratio, like 350-150) ? Europe, Americas and RTOW should be enough for the 2022 to be way more than 2023, the way it should've been.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 13 October 2024