40 million doesn't look likely anymore. Even in North America, it seems like they've been limiting the stock since after the holiday season of 2024.
I think Xbox is content for GTA VI to be sold largely to existing Series owners instead of trying to drive up hardware sales.
Considering the fifth Xbox doesn't seem like it's coming out until Holiday 2027 (as opposed to the earlier rumored Holiday 2026) and if that's the case, I think Series will whimper for the next few years. It could sell as low as 2 million a year.

Here are 2 charts, in EU and US, in EU vs the PS4 JP sales which finished at 9.7M, and in US the PSP which finished at 20M. Do you think it will match them or come short or barely surpass them ? (keep in mind that starting this year EU is almost flat, and US will be somewhat more flat than last year line, and even though it looks like easy to surpass them, those will be hard battles for the Xbox going forward).

@XtremeBG 

It could match those totals, but it will be very close. 

I am on the same position.

So if XBSX was 32M as of December 2024, let's add around 1.5M more for Europe, and around 4M for the US, that is 5.5M, anything else + Japan let's round up to 6M in total, 32+6 = 38M. That we should expect unless Microsoft do something for those sales to pick up at least a little.

The tariffs might be the nail in the coffin for 40m.